Introduction

Next year, China's auto market will be dominated by the theme of cutthroat competition.

Shortly after Jiyue's "sudden collapse," a lengthy, somewhat boastful response once again thrust Xia Yiping, the CEO of this new-energy vehicle startup, into the spotlight.

From the content, "I didn't run away" was the core message he intended to convey. He stated, "I am proud to have sat with my colleagues in the office, enduring criticism and blame, and accompanying them through their most confused and helpless moments."

While his rhetorical prowess is admirable, it's difficult to sympathize with him. As the company's primary leader, shouldn't these actions be the bare minimum of accountability?

While Jiyue's current plight cannot solely be blamed on Xia Yiping, he is undeniably at fault and bears significant responsibility.

In his lengthy response, he admitted: "I didn't foresee the severity of the capital issue; I underestimated the challenges of vehicle manufacturing; I overlooked the alignment of positions and talents in staffing; key business leaders lacked sufficient industry experience, leading to frequent personnel changes and internal friction; I focused too much on management details, stifling the team's initiative and creativity; and I was overly obsessed with marketing, neglecting financing and strategic planning."

Unfortunately, despite the depth of his reflection, it comes too late. Xia Yiping's final declaration, "I will do everything in my power to keep Jiyue alive," rings hollow to an outsider.

Amid the intensifying competition in China's auto market, any brand showing signs of "sudden death" will struggle to survive, regardless of their recovery efforts.

In Jiyue's tragedy, the real victims are the over 10,000 car owners and over 3,000 employees. They did nothing wrong but now face this dire situation as the year draws to a close. Let's hope Baidu and Geely can clean up the mess and adequately compensate them.

Of course, Jiyue's abrupt exit has also cast a shadow over other new-energy vehicle startups that have long been under scrutiny. Discussions about "who will be the next to fall" are heating up.

It must be acknowledged that reality is harsh, as stated in the title of this article, "Next year, more players will fall in China's auto market."

Interestingly, just last week, I had the privilege of interviewing Li Bin, CEO of NIO, who has long been at the center of public debate. His predictions left a deep impression on me.

'In my opinion, it's not impossible for the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles to exceed 75%. Amid the surging wave of the shift from gasoline to electric vehicles, industry resources are bound to concentrate more on leading players. As frontrunners continue to gain momentum, the gap between them and followers will widen.'

In other words, once you fall behind, you will perish.

As a result, Li Bin's wrinkles deepen along with the increasing difficulty of reaching the final chapter. He clearly understands that if NIO fails to double its sales next year and achieve self-sufficiency the year after, the eventual outcome for this new-energy vehicle startup will also be a regrettable exit. This raises a new question: "What are the conditions for this group to stay in the game?"

First and foremost, there must be significant and high-quality sales.

After all, economies of scale have always been the key to survival in the automotive industry. Without solid orders, all talk is empty. Objectively speaking, for new-energy vehicle startups, selling 10,000 units per month is the non-negotiable "life or death" threshold.

Secondly, sufficient financial support is essential.

In fact, the fundamental reason for Jiyue's "sudden collapse" was the disruption in its capital chain. Generally speaking, unlike the past when "hot money" flooded into China's auto market, every new-energy vehicle startup is now tightening its belt and conserving resources. Next year, the competition will be even fiercer, with those having more resources prevailing. Otherwise, they won't even have the means to survive the winter.

Furthermore, it's crucial to make one's voice heard constantly.

For a long time, we've witnessed too many brands "building in isolation," with end consumers unaware of what they're doing, let alone spending money to place orders.

Next year, China's auto market will undoubtedly surge forward with overwhelming force. In this process, it will be essential to communicate achievements cleverly and efficiently.

Lastly, it's important to demonstrate continuous vitality.

While it may sound sentimental, I still want to say that "some manufacturers, hindered by various factors, have fallen into a vicious cycle. Even if there's still room to struggle, the possibility of standing out is minimal." More bluntly, when branches start to wither, it's only a matter of time before the tree is uprooted.

Rationally and emotionally, new-energy vehicle startups should avoid showing signs of aging.

Considering the above four points, who do you think will be the next to follow in Jiyue's footsteps? I believe each reader has their own answer.

In my view, not limited to new-energy vehicle startups, but next year, every player in China's auto market, except for the giants consistently gaining market share, should be on high alert.

Take joint venture brands as an example. In the past, they dominated the traditional fuel vehicle era but are now struggling to adapt in the new energy vehicle era, where the rules of the game have dramatically changed.

According to relevant statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, in November, retail sales of independent Chinese brands reached 1.54 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34% and a month-on-month increase of 4%.

Correspondingly, the domestic retail market share of independent Chinese brands reached 64.1%, a year-on-year increase of 8.7 percentage points. In November, their wholesale market share even reached 68.3%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from the same period last year, approaching the 70% threshold.

In contrast, the gradual decline in the market share of joint venture brands in China is inevitable.

In November, their overall retail sales were 600,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. Among them, the retail market share of German brands was 15.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points; that of Japanese brands was 12.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1 percentage points; and that of American brands was 6.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points.

Korean and French brands fared even worse.

This prompts me to revisit a previous analysis: "Among joint venture brands, the French, struggling with acclimatization, will be the first to face serious risks. Next, Korean and American brands, which adhere to the cost-effective route, will encounter difficulties. Subsequently, Japanese brands, which focus on economy and low consumption, will face significant challenges. German brands, due to the presence of BBA and Volkswagen, have the thickest 'health bar' but are far from their former glory."

Currently, this analysis aligns well with emerging trends. Boldly predicting, next year, joint venture brands' market share will be further eroded and seized by independent Chinese brands. The retail market share will easily surpass the 70% threshold.

So, who do you think will be the weak players to falter in this process?