Real Order Ratio May Be as Low as 2%

Author | Wang Lei

Editor | Qin Zhangyong

In mid-January, Manchester police in the UK seized a Tesla Cybertruck, citing the straightforward reason that the vehicle is illegal to drive on UK roads.

According to the police, while the driver is a UK resident, the Cybertruck is registered and insured abroad, necessitating proof of ownership and valid insurance.

Embarrassingly, the Tesla Cybertruck has failed to pass the UK road safety test, thus lacking a certificate of conformity and being unqualified for legal driving.

The Cybertruck's situation in the UK is merely the tip of the iceberg. Despite initially gaining a significant fan base with its striking appearance, it has ultimately struggled to meet real-world demands.

Musk's proclaimed "best product Tesla has ever made" seems to be facing sales struggles.

On Tesla's overseas official website, the company has begun offering discounts on its Cybertruck electric pickup trucks in inventory.

Yes, you read that right. Not only has the Cybertruck started selling at a discount, but it even has inventory available.

Currently, discounts on new Cybertruck vehicles can reach up to $1,600 (approximately RMB 11,750), with the exact discount price varying by configuration.

Moreover, Tesla has a small number of display Cybertrucks with just a few hundred miles on the odometer, offering discounts of up to $2,600 (currently around RMB 20,000). To enhance marketability, these models also come with the benefit of "lifetime free Supercharging."

How could such a globally anticipated vehicle be discounted for sale? It's somewhat perplexing.

01 Sales Did Not Explode as Expected

There were early signs. Overseas media outlet Business Insider reported that workers at Tesla's Austin factory revealed that the company would redeploy some Cybertruck production line workers to the Model Y production line.

The reason for adjusting the production plan of existing models is twofold: Model Y is the primary sales driver with a higher profit margin, and Tesla has begun intentionally downsizing the Cybertruck team, planning to reduce parts production for this model in the first quarter of 2025.

It's evident that, from its initial strong start, Cybertruck's popularity has now waned.

This is reflected in the market through discounted sales and a significantly shortened delivery period.

In addition to discounts on current models, Tesla has converted some of the "Founder Series" Cybertrucks originally intended for pre-order customers to regular versions, removing special logos and selling them at a reduced price of $20,000 for the same configuration.

Despite switching to the cheaper regular version, Tesla still has a significant backlog of "Founder Series" models.

Data from the overseas automotive website CarGurus shows that new Cybertruck prices have fallen by 3.19% in the past month, with a current selling price of $106,000, representing a nearly 10% price decline compared to the past three months.

Notably, Cybertruck initially adopted a pre-order system, but now customers can place orders directly without pre-ordering, and the delivery period has been significantly reduced.

Furthermore, reports suggest that Tesla plans to launch a more affordable RWD Cybertruck priced at $61,000 in 2025, aiming to boost demand with a lower price. Currently, the Cybertruck's price ranges from $80,000 to $100,000.

The consequences of poor sales are not limited to new vehicles but also affect Cybertruck's performance in the used car market.

CarGurus data reveals that, compared to the beginning of the year, the sales time for used Cybertrucks is significantly longer than expected, increasing from 27 days in May to 75 days, with a noticeable decline in sales performance.

Moreover, the average price of used Cybertrucks on December 30, 2024, was $104,300, a decrease of $3,500 from the previous month's $107,800.

Kevin Roberts, Director of Economics and Market Intelligence at CarGurus, bluntly stated, "I can tell you that sales have declined, they are sitting on the lot longer, and prices are coming down."

Musk once claimed that the Austin factory producing Cybertruck could sell 250,000 to 500,000 units annually, a prediction analysts openly deemed impossible at the time.

Now, this prophecy has come true.

While Tesla has not separately released Cybertruck sales data, combining data from various overseas order tracking websites, it's clear that Tesla Cybertruck did not sell well in 2024.

According to a government document from the Cybertruck recall incident in October 2024, as of September, Tesla had delivered only approximately 27,000 Cybertrucks.

Data released by Electrek shows that the total delivery volume of Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck in 2024 was 85,133 units. Excluding the sales of the other two models, Tesla Cybertruck's total sales volume in 2024 was approximately 39,000 units, less than 40,000.

For a product at this price point, such data isn't necessarily bad, but it's far from the nearly 2 million pre-orders reported by many media outlets. Musk had also predicted that, based on Tesla's production capacity, it might take until 2027 to fulfill all accumulated pre-orders before mass production.

Judging from the current ability to purchase vehicles directly without pre-ordering, the real order volume of Cybertruck may not meet expectations, and the number of pre-orders has also significantly shrunk.

Previously, overseas media estimated that, if calculated based on pre-orders exceeding one million, the real order ratio may be as low as 2%.

02 Why Isn't It Selling Well?

The Cybertruck's failure to meet sales expectations is largely due to restricted sales areas.

As of now, the Cybertruck can only be sold and legally driven in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, with most parts of the world unable to sell or legally drive it.

Although the Cybertruck has appeared in other countries and regions, these are generally acquired through unofficial means, making legal driving impossible or extremely costly.

Previously, a Cybertruck with a green license plate appeared on a third-party trading platform in China, belonging to the Founder Series. While it could be legally driven, the selling price was as high as 3.5 million RMB.

In other countries, the reason the Cybertruck cannot be driven on roads is simple: it's too "hard." Its stainless steel exoskeleton and sharp design make it difficult to meet safety requirements.

The Manchester police who seized the Cybertruck explained the reason for the seizure on social media: "While this may seem trivial to some, in the event of a collision, the safety of other road users or pedestrians would be at risk, and there are indeed legal concerns regarding the Cybertruck."

Taking China as an example, the "Collision Protection of Vehicles for Pedestrians" clearly stipulates that there should be no sharp protrusions on the exterior or interior of the vehicle that could cause harm to people.

The Cybertruck's stainless steel body and near-right-angle design obviously do not meet regulatory requirements, posing potential hazards to pedestrian protection.

Moreover, the Cybertruck itself is relatively heavy, and the stainless steel material is highly durable. If humans, animals, or other vehicles collide with it, the consequences can be devastating.

On overseas social media, some owners have reported that the rear cargo door of their Tesla Cybertruck cut their wrist, and others have complained about their legs being cut by the door's edge.

In addition, product quality is a significant issue. Despite not selling many units in 2024, since its first delivery in November 2023, the Cybertruck has been recalled seven times in 2024 alone.

These recalls include issues such as small warning light fonts, stuck pedals causing unintended acceleration, front windshield wiper malfunctions, inverter malfunctions, and other major and minor problems.

Some owners have reported that the metal skin on both sides of the rear cargo box of their Cybertruck was blown off while driving on the highway, and another owner revealed that their Cybertruck developed large areas of rust on the body after just 381 miles due to rain.

While Tesla officially responded that this can be removed, who would want to spend $100,000 on a luxury electric vehicle that requires regular rust removal?

Simultaneously, the high price has also deterred many potential buyers. Initially, Musk claimed that the electric pickup truck could be purchased for "$39,900," but over the four years since it began missing delivery deadlines in 2019, the price has increased, with the current entry-level model priced at nearly $80,000.

This represents an increase of over 50% from the pre-release price, deterring many potential customers who had "blindly" paid deposits.

Trip Chowdhry, an analyst at Global Equities Research, believes that Tesla discounted the Cybertruck because consumers expect the company to launch a smaller and more affordable all-electric pickup truck. "Tesla should develop a smaller, more compact, and lower-cost version of the Cybertruck."

Trip Chowdhry also suggested that reducing the size of the existing Cybertruck version by 20% could help Tesla price it between "$40,000 and $60,000," closer to the pricing announced at the Cybertruck's 2019 unveiling.

Otherwise, Tesla risks "digging its own grave."