Extended-Range Chaos + Late Pure Electric Entry: Is Li Xiang's 700,000 Sales Target in Jeopardy?

03/17 2025 405

On March 14, Li Xiang unveiled its year-end summary for 2024 amidst the "NIO-XPeng-Li Xiang" trio. As the first to release its report, let's delve into Li Xiang's overall performance in 2024 and its upcoming strategies for 2025.

01 Review of 2024

In a nutshell, Li Xiang's goal for 2024 was profitability. With over 500,000 vehicles sold, Li Xiang's market share in the new energy vehicle segment priced at 200,000 yuan and above surged to 15.3%, topping Chinese automotive brands in sales. A vehicle gross margin of 19.8% underscored its robust performance in the industry. This combination of high gross margin and scale enabled Li Xiang to achieve an annual revenue of 144.5 billion yuan and a gross profit of 29.7 billion yuan. Net profit reached 8 billion yuan, while operating profit stood at 7.02 billion yuan. A key takeaway for competitors: large scale coupled with high gross margin is the key to profitability.

Li Xiang's R&D expenses in 2024 amounted to 11.1 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase from 10.6 billion yuan in 2023. This rise was attributed to increased expenses supporting product portfolio and technology expansion, as well as higher employee compensation. As of December 31, 2024, Li Xiang's cash reserves stood at 112.8 billion yuan.

Chairman Li Xiang noted, "Sufficient cash flow generation and robust cash reserves provide a solid foundation for our long-term investments in electrification technology and intelligence advancements, steadily pushing forward our company's vision with sustained momentum."

02 MEGA and Extended-Range Series to Launch New Models in May

In 2024, Li Xiang successfully launched MEGA and refreshed the L series on March 1.

Traditionally, one model refresh per year is expected, but Li Xiang clarified that there will be no model refresh this year.

Instead, Liu Jie, Vice President of Li Xiang, announced that instead of new 2025 models for the L series and MEGA, an "Intelligent Driving Renewal Edition" will be launched in May, focusing solely on upgrades to intelligent driving hardware. Battery, electric drive, and exterior/interior styling will remain unchanged.

AD Max will be upgraded from NVIDIA's dual Orin-X chips to a single Thor-U chip. Both versions provide advanced driver assistance and full-scenario NOA functionality, supporting the upcoming VLA large model.

AD Pro will upgrade from the Horizon J5 chip to the J6M chip, adding a LiDAR to match AD Max's active safety capabilities. Both versions offer advanced driver assistance and high-speed NOA, with continuous OTA upgrades. The Intelligent Driving Renewal Edition is set for May, but its market competitiveness and sales performance remain questionable if no other improvements are made.

03 Launch of 2 Pure Electric Models This Year

The first model, the Li Xiang i8, will be officially launched in July.

Synchronizing with the i8 is Li Xiang's next-generation intelligent driving technology: end-to-end (E2E) + visual language action model (VLA). Currently, Li Xiang's intelligent driving is based on E2E + VLM. Later this year, Li Xiang will introduce another pure electric model, the i6, at a similar pace to the L9 and L8 launches in 2022. This strategy aims to boost sales in the second half of the year and accumulate orders for the following quarter.

04 Sales and Service Network + Charging Network

In 2024, Li Xiang significantly improved store quality and sales efficiency by shifting from tail-end mall stores to central stores in major automotive cities. Central store proportion rose from 24% at the end of 2023 to 42% by the end of 2024, with total positions nationwide increasing from over 2,600 to over 3,700.

"The Cangzhou Gaoxin Central Store, opened in 2024, achieved monthly sales of 175 units within four months, demonstrating our new stores' operational efficiency."

As of February 28, 2025, Li Xiang Automobile had 500 retail centers nationwide, covering 150 cities. This year, while strengthening offline channels, Li Xiang will continue expanding and constructing its sales network in a rhythmic and quality-focused manner.

Regarding the charging network, as of February 28, 2025, Li Xiang Automobile operated 1,874 supercharger stations with 10,008 charging piles nationwide. Li Xiang plans to expand the 5C supercharging network, aiming to complete over 2,000 stations by the first quarter of this year, connecting nine horizontal and nine vertical national highways.

Li Xiang aims to complete over 2,500 supercharger stations by the i8 launch. This year, it will open over 50 tourist routes, covering national highways exceeding 67,000 kilometers and provincial high-traffic highways spanning 10,000 kilometers, totaling over 77,000 kilometers. Currently, 483 high-speed supercharger stations are along China's four major economic belts, with an average spacing of 99 kilometers. By year-end, Li Xiang will achieve full high-speed supercharger coverage along these belts.

05 First Year of Overseas Market Expansion

Li Xiang affirmed that internationalization and overseas markets are core strategies. This year, it will seriously explore overseas markets, building capabilities in brand marketing, after-sales service, organizations, and teams. "This year, we established an independent overseas expansion department and transferred experienced personnel to join this team. Relying on our luxury brand image in Central Asia, we will continue expanding market share."

Over the past year, Li Xiang established after-sales service centers in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the United Arab Emirates, providing original parts and technical support to local networks. It is also expanding in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific, collaborating with local partners. "We will select outstanding dealers as local partners, increase marketing investment, and build a comprehensive after-sales service network. 2025 marks Li Xiang Automobile's official entry into overseas markets."

06 Is the 700,000 Sales Target Uncertain?

Li Xiang has set a sales target of 700,000 units for this year, previously estimated at 500,000 extended-range and 200,000 pure electric models. However, I now have doubts about Li Xiang's upcoming sales performance.

Extended-range models are facing declining competitiveness, evident in sales figures. In January and February, Li Xiang delivered 29,927 and 26,263 vehicles, respectively, expecting first-quarter deliveries between 88,000 and 93,000 units.

This achievement is despite promotional measures like price reductions and interest-free policies. Previously, Li Xiang's models easily sold 50,000 units per month. However, the late launch of MEGA and the extended-range series renewal, coupled with minimal changes in the Intelligent Driving Renewal Edition, will impact sales. Competitors' extended-range offensive is also looming, with Wenjie leading the charge. Within 36 hours of pre-sale, Wenjie secured 54,000 orders, clearly targeting Li Xiang.

Many automakers plan to launch hybrid products, aiming to compete in Li Xiang's extended-range market. Originally estimated at 500,000 units, extended-range sales now seem more challenging.

On the pure electric front, the late entry is surprising, possibly due to last year's failure making Li Xiang overly cautious. The first model launches in July, with the second model's timing uncertain, likely in the second half. With only two models and a late start, how many sales can Li Xiang achieve in the second half? Originally estimated at 200,000 units, this now seems unlikely. MEGA is unlikely to be a high-volume model, and the remaining two models will have just over four months of sales time, limiting pure electric sales to tens of thousands. Assuming first-quarter deliveries of 90,000 units, the average monthly delivery for the rest of the year needs to be 67,800 units to meet the target. Even with overseas market expansion and penetration into lower-tier markets, this will be a formidable task. Let's keep a close watch.

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