By/Bowang Finance

The autonomous logistics vehicle sector is abuzz with news of 'Cainiao acquiring a stake in Jiushi' and 'Jiushi taking over Cainiao's autonomous vehicles' simultaneously. This integration, involving industry leaders, has transcended a mere business merger, evolving into a strategic battle for dominance, valuation, technical assets, and ecosystem integration. From Cainiao's shifting strategic focus on autonomous vehicles to Jiushi's eagerness to scale, both parties' moves reflect emerging trends in the current competitive landscape of the autonomous logistics vehicle industry.

Dominance: Integration or Divestment?

The crux of the integration—who will dominate—reveals two fundamentally different cooperation models. If Cainiao's stake acquisition leads, it suggests Cainiao aims to retain its influence in the autonomous vehicle sector. Conversely, if Jiushi takes the helm, it would resemble Cainiao's strategic divestment of non-core businesses. Based on currently available information and industry logic, Cainiao's stake acquisition and Jiushi's business assumption model seem more plausible. Their relationship likely falls between pure financial investment and deep equity control, avoiding both full Cainiao dominance and complete independent acquisition by Jiushi.

On one hand, Alibaba's broader strategy since last year, focused on shedding non-core assets and recouping funds, sets the tone for this cooperation. Despite Cainiao's early entry into the autonomous vehicle business, it has yet to establish a scalable advantage and remains in a continuous investment phase. Given Alibaba's contraction of non-core businesses, it is challenging for Cainiao to allocate more resources to the autonomous vehicle sector. Opting for an asset-for-equity swap essentially transforms the business burden into potential investment returns.

On the other hand, Jiushi's financial constraints and strategic needs also limit its ability to fully dominate the acquisition. Despite raising over $500 million in financing, Jiushi remains unprofitable, with its financial reserves primarily directed towards technological R&D and scalable expansion. Allocating a substantial cash sum to acquire Cainiao's autonomous vehicle business would be challenging. Transferring partial equity to assume assets not only supplements technical assets and potential scenario resources but also alleviates significant cash pressure, aligning with Jiushi's low-cost strengthening strategy.

Notably, under this cooperation model, Jiushi's founding team retains a relatively stable voice. Unlike Alibaba's deep equity control over AutoNavi and Ele.me, Cainiao has not pursued absolute controlling equity this time. If future integration falls short of expectations, Cainiao can cash out and exit post-Jiushi's IPO. Conversely, if progress is smooth, it can reap sector dividends through Jiushi's scalable capabilities. This flexible stance further underscores Cainiao's non-dominant, light-investment strategic positioning.

Valuation and Integration: Cainiao's Compromise

The valuation of Cainiao's autonomous vehicle business is another pivotal issue in their integration. Previously, Cainiao attempted to secure independent financing for its autonomous vehicle division, with insiders suggesting an expected valuation between RMB 1-1.5 billion. However, amid a chilly fundraising environment in the primary market, it failed to attract investor interest—Cainiao's delivery scale of less than a thousand units and an unclear profit model could not justify such a high valuation. Ultimately, opting for a stake acquisition reflects Cainiao's compromise between valuation expectations and market realities.

Currently, details surrounding Cainiao's stake acquisition in Jiushi remain vague, with phrases like 'creating a more competitive consortium through restructuring' and 'further strengthening comprehensive capabilities in technology, operations, and ecosystem' being used. Neither company has disclosed more integration specifics, possibly indicating that they have not yet reached a complete agreement.

For Cainiao, although it has not received immediate cash returns, it has mitigated the risk of ongoing business losses and secured an exit channel post-Jiushi's potential listing. If Jiushi can leverage integrated resources effectively, Cainiao's equity value is expected to surpass the current RMB 1-1.5 billion valuation expectation.

Jiushi's costs are primarily implicit. Besides transferring equity, Jiushi must undertake the later-stage operations of Cainiao's autonomous vehicles, with the FSD service fee (RMB 20,000/year, equivalent to RMB 1,667/month) priced significantly below the industry average, necessitating short-term subsidies to maintain service quality. Meanwhile, Cainiao's autonomous vehicle R&D team, predominantly from Alibaba's DAMO Academy, possesses technical backgrounds and corporate cultures differing from Jiushi's existing team. Achieving technical synergy rather than internal friction will be a major challenge for Jiushi.

However, given Cainiao's autonomous vehicles' limited scale, these costs remain manageable for Jiushi, whose primary objective remains acquiring Cainiao's intellectual property assets.

Technology and Patents: Jiushi's Core Pursuit

In this integration, what Jiushi truly values may not be the scale of Cainiao's autonomous vehicles but rather its technology assets free from intellectual property disputes—a strategic safety net amid its patent disputes with JD. Previously, media reported unresolved patent disputes between Jiushi and JD in areas like autonomous driving algorithms and sensor fusion solutions. If JD initiates litigation, some of Jiushi's core patents may face infringement risks, necessitating technical scheme adjustments and affecting existing order deliveries and market expansion.

In contrast, Cainiao's autonomous vehicle technology system is entirely independent of these disputes: its self-developed algorithms and technical solutions possess complete intellectual property rights and can be directly applied. For Jiushi, acquiring Cainiao's autonomous vehicle business is akin to obtaining a backup technical solution—should disputes with JD escalate, it can swiftly switch to Cainiao's technology system to ensure business continuity, a strategic value far surpassing the scale effect of nearly a thousand vehicles.

Additionally, Cainiao's logistics ecosystem resources offer potential growth avenues for Jiushi. Leveraging Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem, Cainiao has accumulated rich operational experience and customer resources in scenarios like supermarket retailing, pharmaceutical cold chain, and cross-border logistics. Although the current integration does not explicitly mention scenario sharing, Jiushi can gradually penetrate Cainiao's parcel station system through equity binding and secure more orders.

Similar Integrations May Emerge in the Future

The integration of Cainiao's and Jiushi's autonomous vehicles essentially reflects the industry's transition from rapid growth to rational integration. For Cainiao, it represents a timely strategic contraction to maximize the value of non-core businesses through asset securitization. For Jiushi, it is a precise low-cost strengthening strategy to mitigate risks and consolidate advantages using external resources. Their cooperation is neither a pure strong-strong alliance nor a simple sell-off and takeover but a rational choice under specific industry cycles.

The success of this integration will hinge on the quality of team fusion. If Alibaba's technical team and Jiushi's existing team can overcome cultural differences and form synergies, they are poised to occupy a more advantageous position in the sector. Otherwise, this integration may devolve into a short-term cooperation for mutual benefits, struggling to form long-term competitiveness.

For the entire autonomous logistics vehicle industry, this integration also sends a clear signal: as financing environments tighten and leading enterprises expand their advantages, relying solely on technological or scale breakthroughs is no longer sustainable. The era of systemic competition involving technology, operations, and ecosystems has arrived, and more similar integrations are likely to emerge in the future.