On April 25, Qingdao officials released the economic performance of Qingdao in the first quarter. According to the unified accounting results of the city-level gross domestic product, in the first quarter of 2024, the city's gross domestic product was 374.354 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year calculated at constant prices.

From the perspective of growth rate, Qingdao's growth rate of 5.9% is 0.1 percentage points lower than the provincial average but 0.6 percentage points higher than the national average, surpassing cities like Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Ningbo.

In terms of increment, Qingdao's GDP increment in the first quarter was 23.967 billion yuan, higher than Wuhan, Ningbo, and Tianjin.

However, objectively speaking, for GDP rankings between provinces and cities, the significance of first-quarter data comparison is not significant.

On the one hand, quarterly GDP accounting adopts an industry-specific approach, but the economic growth points of some provinces and cities are greatly influenced by seasonal factors, such as the tourist season in northern cities, which is generally in the second and third quarters.

On the other hand, after the final verification of annual GDP, provinces and cities usually revise the quarterly data. According to the official introduction of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's current method for revising quarterly GDP data is the proportional linkage method, which adjusts quarterly data by using the difference rate between the annual benchmark value and the sum of the four quarters within the year.

For example, Henan's GDP in the first quarter of this year was 1,476.53 billion yuan, while it was 1,496.897 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023. In terms of increment, Henan's GDP in the first quarter of this year was 20.36 billion yuan less than that of the first quarter of last year, with a nominal growth rate of "-1.4%," while the officially announced real growth rate was 4.7%.

The most likely explanation is that Henan conducted a final accounting of the GDP data for each quarter of 2023 based on the GDP data for the entire year of 2023, and the first quarter was revised downward compared to the preliminary accounting data.

From this perspective, the most important value of first-quarter statistical data may be to enable provinces and cities to timely discover problems in the economic operation process and make timely adjustments.

Specifically, in terms of Qingdao, its first-quarter data has been relatively low in the past few years. For example, in 2020 and 2021, Qingdao's first-quarter GDP ranked behind Changsha.

This year, Qingdao's performance in the first quarter can be considered a good start. Summarizing Qingdao's first-quarter economic data, it can be summarized as:

A strong rebound in industry, exports showing highlights, consumption continuing to be robust, and investment still needing efforts.

Next, through exports and consumption such as large-scale equipment updates, industry will continue to maintain steady growth. At the same time, attracting more industries to invest in Qingdao, especially large manufacturing projects and foreign capital, by leveraging export and consumption advantages, and increasing investment growth rates, will be the top priority for Qingdao's economic growth in 2024.

At the Standing Committee of the Shandong Provincial Party Committee held on April 18, the economic and social development situation of the province in the first quarter was analyzed, and key work for the next steps was arranged and deployed.

The meeting specifically required that leading cadres at all levels should take the lead in planning and implementing major tasks, economic cities should stabilize the overall situation and play a leading role, and counties, cities, and districts should highlight their characteristics and continuously strengthen their development advantages.

For Qingdao, it is especially necessary to leverage its geographical advantages and focus on investment, making corresponding contributions to Shandong.

Let's first look at the industry's strong rebound.

In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the city increased by 10.0% year-on-year, 4.2 percentage points faster than in 2023.

Among the 35 major industries, 28 industries achieved growth, with a growth rate of 80%, an expansion of 20.0 percentage points compared to 2023.

Among them, the added value of the manufacturing industries of railways, ships, aerospace, and other transportation equipment; computers, communications, and other electronic equipment; instrumentation; and special equipment increased by 25.2%, 24.3%, 12.8%, and 12.3% year-on-year, respectively.

Moreover, producer services closely related to industrial upgrading and quality improvement have made significant contributions to economic growth. In the first quarter, the added value of producer services in Qingdao was 150.91 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 48.2% to economic growth.

Looking at foreign trade, exports are strong while imports are lagging.

In the first quarter, Qingdao's total foreign trade value was 205.98 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 119.1 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year; imports were 86.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.9%.

From the perspective of first-quarter foreign trade data, Qingdao maintained rapid growth in the European market. In the first quarter, Qingdao's import and export reached 205.98 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, Qingdao's import and export to the European Union, the United States, and Japan were 26.3 billion yuan, 23.4 billion yuan, and 15.31 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 24%, 8.9%, and 6.8%, respectively.

From the perspective of export structure, Qingdao's "new three categories" of foreign trade performed strongly in the first quarter, with exports of 1.22 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of the province's "new three categories" export value; year-on-year growth of 106.3%, 16.1 percentage points higher than the province. Among them, lithium-ion batteries, which account for a relatively high proportion, increased by 176.5% to 890 million yuan; electric vehicles increased by 61% to 310 million yuan.

Leveraging export advantages to drive more local investment and production in Qingdao will also be a crucial move for future investment attraction.

The lagging imports are likely due to international situations and cyclical effects of bulk commodities.

Consumption data continues to show robust performance.

In the first quarter, Qingdao's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 139.56 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year.

Among them, the consumption of upgraded goods accelerated. Among units above the designated size, the retail sales of communication equipment and new energy vehicles increased by 160.5% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively.

This year's large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins will bring significant increments to cities with headquarters of e-commerce platforms and home appliances and automobiles.

Investment data remains under pressure.

In the first quarter, Qingdao's fixed asset investment increased by 5.4% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in 2023 and also higher than the province-wide level (5.2%).

However, from a structural perspective, the secondary industry grew by 4.0%, and the tertiary industry grew by 5.7%. Such a low growth rate in the secondary industry is relatively rare, considering that Qingdao's manufacturing investment grew by 10.8% year-on-year in 2023.

This obviously rings a warning bell for Qingdao's attraction and reserve of large manufacturing projects.

Fortunately, private investment has begun to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% in the first quarter, 2.2 percentage points faster than in 2023; accounting for 59.9% of the city's total investment, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023.