After a long wait, Apple Intelligence in China finally opened developer Beta testing to mainland Chinese users in the early hours of November 4, and is expected to be fully rolled out with the official release of iOS 27.3 in December. The underlying large model will adopt a combination of Apple's local model plus Alibaba's Qwen, which has already been confirmed by announcements from both sides.

I am a loyal Apple user. I cannot imagine switching my phone from the iOS ecosystem to the Android ecosystem. However, that does not mean I should be optimistic about Apple Intelligence in China. To be precise, I am not optimistic about Apple AI's prospects worldwide, and especially not in mainland China—if facts prove me wrong, I will be very happy.

There are three main reasons why I am not very optimistic about Apple Intelligence in China:

Apple AI will struggle to fully adapt to China's mobile app ecosystem; iOS first-party apps have insufficient usage in China, making it difficult to leverage Apple AI's advantages; the efficiency of the local model plus third-party model approach still needs further observation.

Let's start with the first point. Actually, even in the United States, Apple AI's level of adaptation to third-party apps is insufficient. Currently, the third-party apps with relatively deep adaptation include WhatsApp, Audible, Microsoft Outlook, and so on—among which only WhatsApp is a genuine top-tier app. Apps under Google and Amazon, as well as other apps under Meta, have varying degrees of integration with Apple AI, and they have never committed to any support.

In China, this is even more the case. Considering the partnership between Apple and Qwen, we can expect that perhaps Alibaba-affiliated apps will be relatively open. But what about Tencent-affiliated, ByteDance-affiliated, and other major companies? For one thing, ByteDance is very eager to achieve software-hardware integration. The Doubao phone did not become popular not because ByteDance did not want it, but because the conditions were not yet mature. Given the style of ByteDance's management, I find it hard to imagine ByteDance-affiliated apps opening their arms to Apple AI and integrating deeply.

China's mobile internet is inherently an ecosystem where major companies are closed off from each other and divided into separate camps. This problem not only troubles Apple but also troubles domestic Android manufacturers. Since more than a decade ago, countless hardware manufacturers have fantasized about "hardware as the entry point" and "capturing users through smart devices," but almost all of them were defeated by internet giants. In this process, Apple has had relatively high autonomy, but by no means complete autonomy. It can only use a highly centralized supervision system to push third-party apps to comply with its rules, but it cannot make them obey its orders in everything.

Assuming the third-party app ecosystem cannot be opened up, Apple AI's main battleground becomes iOS first-party apps. The sad part is right here: iPhone penetration in China is high, but Mac penetration is insufficient, resulting in insufficient usage of Apple's entire suite of first-party apps. Don't misunderstand—I'm not saying nobody in China uses a Mac, only that Mac penetration in China, especially in the productivity sector, lags behind developed countries such as the United States. (I could have omitted this sentence, but I know that if I did, there would definitely be contrarians who would use it to make an issue—this is why I increasingly prefer dealing with AI rather than real people!)

Pages, Numbers, Keynote... These Apple first-party office apps have a user base in China far behind Microsoft Office and Kingsoft WPS. Apple Notes is hardly used by anyone in China. (Note: I know some people use it—I use it myself—but few people use it, so to guard against contrarians, I still have to add this parenthetical. This once again proves that I am writing as a human, not AI!) FaceTime's niche in China has been almost completely occupied by WeChat video chat. I believe that in the early days of Apple Intelligence in China, the most frequently used feature will be photo editing, because everyone still uses Apple Photos.

Apple's intelligent translation is a very powerful feature, deeply integrated with Messages, Phone, FaceTime, and AirPods. However, there is a big problem: at this stage, translation can only be done through AirPods, and users who own AirPods are, after all, a minority. The second big problem is that this intelligent translation is obviously not suitable for WeChat voice calls, Tencent Meetings, Feishu, and DingTalk voice conferences, while most voice conversations in China actually take place in these scenarios. We can certainly hope that these major companies will have a change of heart and fully integrate Apple AI's translation feature, but frankly, we might as well hope that aliens will descend tomorrow and solve all the problems on Earth.

We can also copy and paste content from other apps into Apple first-party apps—for example, paste text from WPS into Pages and let Apple AI analyze and summarize it. The problem is, why do that? In such scenarios, what advantage does Apple AI have compared with Doubao, DeepSeek, and the Qwen app? Frankly, it's not even as good as WeChat AI, because most Chinese users certainly spend more time using WeChat every day than using Apple first-party apps. (Note: I smell the presence of contrarians. They are planning to appear in my comment section, but I will not release their argumentative remarks.)

As for Apple's local model plus third-party large models, this model has always been Apple AI's approach; only the domestic provider has been changed to Qwen. To be honest, the problems with this model have never been small. Complex requests are redirected to third-party apps to be completed internally, which greatly harms the user experience. Two or three years ago, we could still hope that Apple's model would one day grow strong enough to complete all tasks; now everyone can see clearly that Apple is unlikely to become part of the first tier of large models, because the first tier is already too crowded.
Apple's model has passed review in China, which is a good thing and also a prerequisite for the launch of Apple Intelligence in China. However, the problem of local model plus third-party large model has always been there and has not disappeared; the China version has also added a cross-border collaboration issue. There is much more I want to say about this problem, but considering the length, I will not elaborate here.

PS: The image search feature of Apple Intelligence in China will connect to Baidu Image Search, which shows that Baidu has not been eliminated from the Apple AI ecosystem. But what role will it ultimately play? Specifically regarding image search, will Apple provide more choices to China users in the future? These questions will probably only be resolved when the full rollout happens in December.

The success of the iOS ecosystem in China is actually the result of "half of its advantages being realized and the other half not":

The half that has been realized is iOS's strict management of third-party app permissions, protection of user data, and the good adaptation mechanism brought by hardware standardization. As long as you have an iPhone, you can enjoy these advantages, and the iPhone's share of Apple's revenue in China has consistently been higher than its share of Apple's revenue in the United States. The half that has not been realized is iOS first-party apps and integration with Mac. It must be acknowledged that China's past, present, and foreseeable future are dominated by Windows PCs. I myself have always used Windows and cannot enjoy the powerful integrated Apple ecosystem. A small number of users switch to Mac every year, but after so many years, the accumulated total is still far from enough.

If Apple AI is to play its full role, it precisely needs to rely on that other half of the advantages. Therefore I have no reason to be optimistic about it—if it needs to rely on an advantage that does not yet exist in order to function, then its role will most likely fail to materialize.

This does not mean I am not optimistic about the future of Apple phones in China. The iPhone 16 series and 17 Pro series just set sales records in Greater China. Even if Apple Intelligence in China completely fizzles out, it should not have much impact on the market share of the iOS ecosystem. Almost no iOS users will switch to Android just because Apple AI is not easy to use—if they really cared, they would have done so over the past two years.