On September 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) jointly unveiled the 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Electronics and Information Manufacturing Industry, setting an ambitious vision for the sector.

By 2030, the plan envisions revenues for enterprises above a designated size surpassing RMB 30 trillion, with R&D intensity reaching 3.5%. In 2025, industry revenues stood at RMB 17.4 trillion. Assuming consistent statistical benchmarks, a straightforward projection indicates that an additional RMB 12.6 trillion will be required over the next five years, implying an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 11.5%.

First, let's address a potential point of confusion. The RMB 30 trillion figure represents a revenue target, not an investment scale. When we discuss 'where the money will be spent,' we are referring to the R&D investment, industrial capital, and corporate resources that will likely be prioritized in the next phase of industrial upgrading over the next five years.

This question holds greater significance than the RMB 30 trillion figure itself.

In 2025, China produced 1.27 billion smartphones and 332 million microcomputer devices, though production volumes declined by 0.9% and 2.9%, respectively. During the same period, fixed-asset investment in the electronics and information manufacturing industry decreased by 3.8%.

For an industry already valued at RMB 17 trillion, achieving further growth in the next five years clearly cannot rely solely on expanding production and boosting terminal sales.

The direction of investment can already be inferred from the 17 key tasks outlined in the plan.

01 Continued Deep Investment in Chips

Among the 17 key tasks, securing breakthroughs across the entire integrated circuit (IC) supply chain is prioritized.

The plan spans a broad spectrum, encompassing high-performance processors, high-density memory, high-reliability analog and mixed-signal chips, as well as manufacturing, advanced packaging, wide-bandgap semiconductors, equipment materials, electronic design automation (EDA), intellectual property (IP) cores, and three-dimensional integration.

Placing integrated circuits at the forefront is no coincidence.

Historically, China's electronics industry has been renowned for its scale. A vast manufacturing system underpins the production of smartphones, computers, televisions, and communication equipment. However, as the industry has matured, a critical question has emerged: How much value can domestic companies capture from producing the same smartphone or computer compared to their international counterparts?

The answer often lies in their position within the supply chain.

For every additional core link that domestic companies penetrate—from processors, memory, and analog chips to advanced packaging, manufacturing equipment, and key materials—the revenue and capabilities retained within the domestic supply chain shift. This is not only about supply chain security but also directly impacts growth potential.

Thus, the plan's strategy for integrated circuits extends beyond merely localizing a few key chips. It calls for comprehensive capabilities across the entire supply chain, from chips to EDA tools, materials, and manufacturing equipment.

The industrial rationale is straightforward.

China may continue to produce over 1.2 billion smartphones annually, but if more processors, memory chips, analog chips, and manufacturing processes are supplied by domestic companies, the same number of terminals will generate higher revenues for China's electronics industry.

While quantities remain constant, the distribution of value changes.

The electronics industry has long demonstrated that leading in production volume does not automatically equate to leadership in value share. At the RMB 30 trillion scale, moving deeper into the supply chain becomes essential for both security and growth.

02 AI is Driving a Wave of Hardware Upgrades

The second clear direction is artificial intelligence (AI).

In recent years, discussions about AI have often centered on models and applications. However, from the perspective of electronics manufacturing, AI primarily signifies a surge in demand for new hardware.

Training large AI models requires AI chips and servers, as well as high-bandwidth memory, high-speed interconnects, power supplies, and cooling systems. As inference demands grow, computing power is beginning to shift beyond the cloud. The plan provides specific details on this front.

Under advanced computing, it proposes supporting artificial intelligence clusters with tens of thousands of cards, developing new memory products such as high-bandwidth memory, and listing cloud-edge-end collaboration and end-side computing devices as key development areas.

In the section on AI hardware, the plan further calls for developing end-side inference devices and chips for embodied AI and autonomous driving, as well as promoting iterative upgrades of AI-enabled smartphones, personal computers, smart glasses, in-vehicle terminals, and industrial terminals.

Consequently, investment in AI hardware spans from data centers to end-user devices.

On one end are larger computing centers; on the other, an increasing number of terminals with local AI capabilities.

On September 15, MediaTek announced the Dimensity 9600 Pro. Built using TSMC's 2nm process, MediaTek positions this chip as a flagship 5G AI chip for intelligent agents. Compared to past competitions centered around CPUs, GPUs, and imaging capabilities, NPU performance and end-side AI capabilities are now taking center stage in the competition for next-generation flagship system-on-chips (SoCs).

The commercial significance of such changes is evident.

Smartphone sales may plateau, but the computing and storage resources used in each device can still increase. Even if automobile sales remain steady, there is still room for improvement in the sensing, computing, and connectivity capabilities of individual vehicles. As robots enter more scenarios, new demand will emerge for processors, sensors, and communication technologies.

This is likely where AI will have its greatest impact on electronics manufacturing: providing a rationale for hardware upgrades across a wide range of existing devices.

In 2025, China's smartphone production declined by 0.9%, while integrated circuit production grew by 10.9% to reach 484.3 billion units. Of course, this single data point cannot be attributed solely to AI, but it at least demonstrates that terminal quantities and electronic component demand are no longer simply correlated.

03 Beyond Smartphones: Seeking Growth in Automotive, Industrial, and Aerospace Markets

Looking further ahead, the plan dedicates significant attention to markets beyond traditional consumer electronics.

The plan includes a dedicated section on innovative development in industry-specific electronics, covering automotive electronics, medical electronics, avionics, aerospace electronics, and marine electronics. The main text also directly mentions applications such as intelligent driving, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, and deep-sea and polar exploration.

For a mature consumer electronics market, these incremental opportunities may be more realistic.

Over the past two decades, smartphones have represented the electronics industry's most successful expansion. Functions such as telephony, photography, navigation, music playback, and mobile computing were integrated into a single device, driving co-growth in chips, displays, memory, sensors, and communication technologies.

Today, a similar process of electrification is underway in other industries—only the objects have changed.

The automotive industry provides the clearest example. In the era of internal combustion engine vehicles, a car's core value lay primarily in its mechanical systems. With the rise of new energy and intelligent vehicles, the importance of power semiconductors, cockpits, sensors, computing platforms, and communication systems has steadily increased. Even without a doubling of vehicle sales, the market for electronic systems can still expand.

Satellites are undergoing a similar transformation. The plan explicitly calls for breakthroughs in radiation-hardened chips and devices, inter-satellite laser communication, and onboard computing platforms, while also proposing accelerated full-supply-chain layout for space computing under advanced computing.

For the electronics industry, computing, communication, and data processing are taking on increasing importance in satellites.

The same trend is evident in industrial equipment, robots, and medical devices.

In the past, the electronics industry focused primarily on clear electronic terminals such as smartphones, computers, and televisions. Today, electronic systems are penetrating deeper into automobiles, industrial equipment, medical devices, and spacecraft.

With smartphones and PCs having reached maturity, this represents an even larger market than searching for the next 'smartphone.'

04 Behind the RMB 30 Trillion Target: A Shift in Growth Models

At this point, the direction for achieving the RMB 30 trillion target is relatively clear.

In 2025, China's electronics and information manufacturing industry had already reached RMB 17.4 trillion in revenue. Relying primarily on expanding production of existing products over the next five years would make it difficult to sustain such a massive increase. The plan's key deployments can actually be summarized along two lines.

One is to continue increasing the value content of electronic products themselves. Chips will continue to move toward higher performance and more complete supply chains, while AI drives up demand for computing, storage, and sensing capabilities in servers, smartphones, automobiles, and robots. Even if terminal sales do not increase significantly, the electronic value within each device can still rise.

The other is to bring electronic technologies into more industries. Automobiles, energy, industrial equipment, medical devices, and spacecraft are all undergoing rapid electrification and intelligentization, expanding the market for the electronics and information industry beyond traditional consumer electronics (3C).

Ultimately, the growth potential over the next five years will come partly from moving deeper into high-value links in the supply chain and partly from the continued outward penetration of electronic technologies.

Over the past few decades, China's electronics manufacturing has achieved massive expansion. From components to finished devices and on to vast industrial clusters, China has become one of the world's most important electronics manufacturing bases. However, once industry revenue reaches the RMB 17 trillion level, the path to RMB 30 trillion cannot rely solely on expanding production and increasing terminal sales as in the past.

Thus, while investment over the next five years will remain substantial, its direction will be both deeper and broader. Going deeper means focusing on chips, memory, advanced packaging, equipment materials, and computing power. Going broader means targeting rapidly electrifying markets such as automobiles, robots, industrial equipment, energy systems, and satellites.

The next wave of growth will require looking deep into the chip supply chain and into automotive, robotics, industrial, and aerospace markets.