Source: Shenlan Finance Macroeconomic Research Team

As work resumes in the Year of the Horse, a question looms for everyone: Where is the world headed in 2026?

This is not an easy question to answer. Over the past twelve months, four key narratives—tariffs, AI, geopolitics, and interest rate cuts—have operated simultaneously, intertwining and driving the market upward amidst "noise." Standing at the threshold of the new year, we have reviewed the annual outlooks from mainstream institutions such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and CICC, attempting to distill the top ten trends most worthy of attention for readers in 2026.

This is not a prophecy but a reference frame.

Trend 1: Chinese Assets Face a "Revaluation Window," but Structural Differentiation is Key

This is the clearest consensus among institutions for 2026.

Goldman Sachs' January report, *China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Growth Drivers*, recommends an "overweight" stance on Chinese equities, projecting 15% to 20% upside for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the year, with earnings growth reaching 14% in 2026. JPMorgan Chase upgraded its ratings for mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks to "overweight," with its Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist, Wendy Liu, forecasting the MSCI China Index to rise approximately 18% and the CSI 300 to gain about 12% by year-end. UBS expects overall A-share earnings growth to accelerate from 6% in 2025 to 8% in 2026.

Such collective bullishness from foreign institutions is uncommon historically. Three shared pillars support this view: first, policy bottoms have been confirmed, with fiscal space expected to expand in the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan; second, corporate profitability is recovering; third, current valuations remain significantly discounted relative to global peers, while "anti-intense competition" policies could drive structural margin improvements.

However, institutions emphasize that this is not a rally to "buy all Chinese assets." Goldman Sachs explicitly states that favored investment themes center on tech hardware, AI applications, globally competitive exporters, and industry leaders benefiting from "anti-intense competition" policies, rather than a blanket bet on China.

Trend 2: AI Enters the "Year of Profit Validation," with Capital Shifting from Compute to Applications

For the past two years, the core logic of AI investment has been "compute scarcity," with NVIDIA epitomizing this narrative. However, 2026 marks a pivotal shift.

Goldman Sachs identifies "AI beneficiary diffusion" as the market's most critical change in 2026—capital will migrate from chips and infrastructure to companies genuinely leveraging AI for profit growth. Morgan Stanley lists "transformative AI reshaping the economy" among its top ten macro forecasts, anticipating AI-driven deflationary signs in some economic sectors by the second half of 2026, alongside synchronized capital expenditure increases and asset valuation shifts.

What does this mean? Market questions are evolving: from "How many GPUs do you use?" to "How much revenue does your AI investment generate?" Companies burning cash without clear ROI narratives will face valuation pressure, while those commercializing AI with pricing power will enjoy revaluation dividends.

The Chinese market is no exception. Institutions broadly favor AI application layers, particularly internet and tech leaders with data accumulation, scenario advantages, and monetization capabilities. Morgan Stanley explicitly recommends an "overweight" stance on high-quality internet and tech stocks.

Notable risk: Goldman Sachs cautions that global tech stock valuations are at their highest since the late 1990s. A U.S. tech bubble burst could spill over into Chinese tech sectors. Sheng Securities' Chief Economist Xiong Yuan identifies this as a key tail risk for 2026.

Trend 3: Gold Enters a "High-Volatility Norm," with Logic Evolving from Safe Haven to Monetary Restructuring

Gold delivered a "lesson" to all in early 2026.

International gold prices surged from $4,500 to a historic peak of $5,598 per ounce in January, a monthly gain exceeding 24%, before plunging over 9% in a single day on January 29–30—the largest daily drop since 1980. This is no ordinary fluctuation but a signal of profound repricing mechanisms.

UBS, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank increased their gold ETF holdings and raised target prices post-crash. JPMorgan Chase lifted its end-2026 gold price target to $6,150 per ounce, citing "catch-up" reserve accumulation by emerging market central banks. JPMorgan data projects global central bank gold purchases to remain at ~755 tons in 2026, far above the pre-2022 historical average.

BlackRock highlights the essence: amid record global debt levels, gold's appeal as an asset "independent of sovereign credit commitments" has amplified, with pricing mechanisms shifting from cost-based to risk-based. CITIC Construction Investment's Chief Macro Strategist Zhou Junzhi is blunter: as the U.S. dollar's technological allure fades, doubts about the dollar cycle's sustainability will grow—this is the core logic for gold's medium-term bullishness.

UBS raised its gold target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, with upside scenarios at $7,200 and downside at $4,600.

We believe gold's long-term bull market logic remains intact, but high volatility will become the norm. Daily swings exceeding 10% are not anomalies but the new reality. Chasing rallies or panic-selling will prove costly in this market.

Trend 4: Dollar Credit Faces Systemic Doubts, with a "Weak Dollar" Trend Likely to Persist

Early 2026 saw an anomalous phenomenon: the dollar and gold weakened simultaneously, breaking the historical correlation where a strong dollar suppressed gold prices. This "dual weakness" reflects deep-seated doubts about dollar credit.

On January 27, the Dollar Index hit a four-year low of 95.566, driven by overlapping factors: rising U.S. debt burdens, eroded confidence in dollar assets due to the Trump administration's unpredictable trade policies, and monetary policy uncertainty amid the Fed Chair transition. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair sparked fears of politicized monetary policy.

Sheng Securities' Chief Economist Xiong Yuan judges that the RMB will generally strengthen against the dollar in 2026, with the dollar likely to remain weak and volatile.

What does this mean for readers? Those holding excessive dollar assets or single-currency exposures should reassess exchange rate risks, while RMB-denominated Chinese assets will gain additional valuation support.

Trend 5: "Going Global" Shifts from Theme to Fundamental, with Chinese Firms Entering Deep Waters

"Going global" is no longer a concept but a real variable reshaping corporate financials.

Goldman Sachs includes "private enterprises' global resurgence" as a core theme in its 15th Five-Year Plan equity portfolio. JPMorgan Chase incorporates "macroeconomic strength in developed markets benefiting overseas sales" into its 2026 top four investment themes. UBS similarly lists "Chinese firms' global expansion and competitiveness" among its top four themes.

From new energy vehicles to construction machinery, from consumer electronics to home appliances, Chinese manufacturing's global competitiveness is upgrading from "low-cost advantages" to "technology and brand strengths." Goldman Sachs projects Chinese exports to maintain structural resilience despite escalating tariff barriers, with export volume growth around 5% in 2026 and the current account surplus expanding from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2%.

Key distinction: True global winners are not firms relying on "global price wars" but those with localized supply chains, brand recognition, and compliance systems. This gap will widen further in 2026.

Trend 6: "Anti-Intense Competition" Policies Enter Implementation Year, with Margin Recovery as a Key Variable

Morgan Stanley places "anti-intense competition" atop its 2026 investment themes—a ranking worth noting.

For years, Chinese industries have been mired in vicious price wars, eroding profitability, particularly in solar, steel, and batteries. The 2025 "anti-intense competition" policies aim to boost industry concentration through administrative guidance and market consolidation, thereby restoring corporate profitability.

Morgan Stanley believes sustained policy implementation will drive structural margin improvements for CSI 300 constituents. UBS's Meng Lei similarly notes that "anti-intense competition" will spur margin recovery, a key foundation for A-share earnings growth from 6% to 8%.

Winners in "anti-intense competition" sectors may not be the largest firms but those with the strongest pricing power and ability to exit price wars early.

Trend 7: The Longevity Economy Rises, with "Silver Consumption" Moving from Policy Narrative to Market Reality

Morgan Stanley lists "societal transformation" among its 2026 macro themes, with population aging driving consumption restructuring as a core element. Its analysts explicitly state that aging populations, shifting consumer preferences, and the pursuit of health and longevity will profoundly impact governments, economies, and businesses.

China's numbers are stark: by 2026, over 300 million people will be aged 60+, with the silver economy market exceeding 12 trillion RMB. But this is not a story about "nursing homes." Today's "new middle-aged" (ages 60–75) generally possess assets, health, and spending will , demanding high-quality anti-aging healthcare, meaningful social engagement, and consumption products aligned with their tastes.

True beneficiaries span healthcare, consumer services, cultural tourism, and financial planning—not traditional "elderly products." Firms understanding this demographic will unlock a less competitive growth market.

Trend 8: Energy Transition Enters a "Pragmatic" Phase, with Nuclear and Storage as Dual Pillars

AI data centers' explosive growth is rewriting global electricity demand equations. Goldman Sachs Asset Management projects significant capital reallocation as governments prioritize energy independence and resource security, reshaping new energy investment landscapes.

In China, this trend manifests as rapid distributed solar installations, virtual power plants extending into communities, accelerated nuclear approvals, and declining storage costs. Notably, commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy booms will create new power and computing demands.

Morgan Stanley lists "the future of energy" among its 2026 themes, emphasizing that energy transitions are nonlinear. Traditional and new energy sources will coexist longer than markets expect. The real opportunities lie in energy system operations and dispatch, not just hardware manufacturing.

Trend 9: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Become Long-Term, Making Diversified Asset Allocation Essential

2026 began with dense (intense) geopolitical triggers: Trump's tariff threats against the EU, escalating Greenland disputes, fragile Middle East ceasefires, and Fed Chair transition uncertainties. Goldman Sachs labels "noise" a key 2026 feature in its top themes, warning that U.S. Supreme Court rulings on tariff legality and November midterm elections could become major market variables.

What does this mean for readers? Geopolitical risks have evolved from "occasional disruptions" to "pricing variables." Concentrated allocations in single markets, currencies, or asset classes face higher systemic risks. Gold, commodities, and equities across economies—diversification itself generates returns.

Trend 10: Volatility Returns, Making "Navigating Turbulence" the Most Critical Skill

This is the most overlooked yet potentially most important trend of 2026.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management explicitly states that 2026 equity market trends will diverge more sharply, advocating "active global equity diversification." Central bank policy shifts, new trade dynamics, fiscal risks, and AI-driven structural changes will collectively elevate market volatility. Sheng Securities' Xiong Yuan believes 2026 will likely be a "commodity supercycle year," but "bonds and currencies lack the 'sex appeal' of stocks and commodities."

For readers, the real challenge is not identifying correct trends but holding positions amid sharp fluctuations. Gold surging 24% in a month before plunging 13%; AI stocks rallying, falling, and rallying again—this is not abnormal but the 2026 norm.

Position management, liquidity reserves, and clear logic for holdings—these "boring" fundamentals will prove more valuable in high-volatility eras than any precise market call.

Epilogue

2026 lacks for trends but demands judgment to cut through the noise.

Goldman Sachs describes it as a year of "calm, transformation, and noise." Our interpretation: calm lies in slow fundamental repairs, transformation in AI and geopolitics reshaping asset pricing, and noise in market turbulence from every macro event.

In such markets, the greatest danger is not misjudging trends but being shaken out of correct positions by short-term noise.

In the Year of the Horse, may every reader discern direction clearly and hold steadfast.

This article synthesizes 2026 outlooks from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS, CICC, and Sheng Securities. All data cited derives from public research reports. The views represent the editorial team's reference perspectives and do not constitute investment advice.

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