More than two weeks have passed since Tesla unveiled its 'three-none' Robotaxi, yet discussions triggered by this concept car continue.

Alex Proyas, the director of the Hollywood sci-fi film "I, Robot," recently criticized Tesla on social media, claiming that Tesla had copied his creative ideas from the movie, from autonomous taxis to robots. Under the post, many netizens encouraged Proyas, but some mocked:

You should feel honored. What you did with CGI and green screens, Elon Musk has achieved in reality.

On the evening of October 10, local time in the US, the Tesla Robotaxi concept car, which had been repeatedly delayed, finally emerged from the realm of movies into real-world vision. Named Cybercab, it has no driver, steering wheel, pedals, or rearview mirrors, making it a true autonomous vehicle.

During the less than half-hour-long launch event, Tesla CEO Elon Musk not only took a ride in the Cybercab but also painted a future blueprint for the world – in the era of autonomous driving, you can free your hands from driving, save time searching for parking, and even manage a "fleet" like herding sheep.

After this event, which Tesla dubbed "a historic day," everyone was asking Musk: How long will it take for this day to arrive?

#01

The Speed of Dreams Becoming Reality

As early as 2016, Musk made public his grand vision for Robotaxi – creating a vehicle capable of fully autonomous driving without any human intervention.

The book 'Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future' records the many delays in Musk's Robotaxi dream: Musk claimed that by the end of 2017, Tesla electric vehicles would be able to drive from Los Angeles to New York, and if you wanted the car to drive back by itself, you'd just need to tap "Summon" on your phone.

But after that, almost every year, he would predict again that fully autonomous driving would be realized in about a year. It wasn't until 2022 that Musk finally acknowledged that the process was more challenging than anticipated in 2016, saying, "To achieve fully autonomous driving, we actually have to solve real-world AI problems first."

Two years later, this Hollywood spectacle fulfilled Musk's long-overdue promise to some extent. In a short 20-minute speech, Musk hoped to paint a new future for struggling American automakers through the Cybercab.

According to his future blueprint, over time, the operating cost of the Cybercab could drop to about 20 cents per mile (approximately 0.9 yuan/km in China), and the cost in the US, including taxes and other fees, would be 30-40 cents (approximately 1.3-1.8 yuan/km). Everyone could afford it. Moreover, users could purchase the Cybercab in the future, with an estimated cost of less than $30,000.

At the same time, he painted a picture of a wonderful life for users, "What will the future with Robotaxi be like? Parking lots can be turned into parks, making cities better." During a Robotaxi ride, users can use their phones, watch movies, work, or do anything they want. If you're a ride-hailing driver, you can manage your "fleet" like herding sheep.

Besides the cyber unmanned taxi Cybercab, the unmanned multipurpose vehicle Robovan and the humanoid robot Optimus also made their debut on Hollywood streets that day. Robovan can carry 20 people or transport goods, described by Musk as a "vehicle from Star Wars." Optimus, which interacted and danced with the audience on-site, will serve as a "personal assistant" in the future, "It can take care of children, walk dogs, mow lawns, buy groceries, and even serve as an assistant in social situations."

This historic spectacle provided audiences with a sense of technology and imagination of the future. While Musk talked about the low cost of Tesla's Robotaxi network and its competition with traditional ride-hailing platforms, netizens were already dreaming of letting the Cybercab go out and earn money on its own in the future.

However, from the outside world's perspective, there were still insufficient details in this brief speech to bring the vision to reality. Some foreign media reported that "He didn't provide detailed information about any of the Tesla products showcased that night, including the Optimus robots, which are remotely controlled by humans, something Musk didn't reveal to excited investors."

Nevertheless, Musk did provide an estimated production timeline for the Cybercab: two years later.

#02

A Distant Promise

When Musk announced the production timeline for the Cybercab, the market seemed to echo the cry of "the wolf is coming" once again.

Wall Street investors were not impressed, expressing disappointment in Musk's "new toy" and believing that Tesla failed to demonstrate a concrete business model and profit prospects. The decline in Tesla's stock price and the rise in Uber's share price within hours of the event confirmed this attitude.

However, some Tesla bulls predicted that Tesla was aiming for a larger market than online ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Didi.

Tasha Keeney, Director of Investment Analysis and Institutional Strategy at ARK, believes that Tesla's advantage lies in its relatively low-cost autonomous taxi service. According to Musk's estimates, as Cybercabs enter mass production, the price of autonomous taxi rides will drop to as low as $0.30 to $0.40 per mile. In comparison, the average cost per mile in the Western ride-hailing market is approximately $2.40, and the average cost per mile for personal vehicles is about $0.70 cents.

At first glance, the future blueprint for the Cybercab seems capable of supporting Tesla's future valuation of $10 trillion. However, there's a big prerequisite: in addition to achieving mass production, it must also be allowed on the road.

The book 'Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future' contains a detail about the 'Robotaxi': During a meeting in late summer 2022, Musk had a heated argument with the design team about whether the Cybercab should be equipped with a steering wheel and pedals. Tesla's chief designer suggested "building a car with a detachable steering wheel and pedals" because they knew that even if autonomous driving was approved in the US, it would take years for approval in other countries. Ultimately, Musk chose to take a risky bet.

Judging from this somewhat empty event, Musk seems to be placing all his bets on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability.

According to Tesla's plans, by 2025, the "unsupervised" FSD capability will be officially launched in Texas and California. Meanwhile, Tesla expects to start producing the Cybercab in 2026. Before then, users will also experience Robotaxi functionality in models like the Model 3 and Model Y.

Although Musk claims that FSD will be ten times safer than human drivers in the future, FSD is still not completely out of the scope of safety regulation. This technology also reflects Musk's stubbornness; he is a staunch opponent of lidar, going against the industry's leading competitors, and the Cybercab does not rely on lidar either.

Shortly after the Robotaxi event, Tesla's FSD suffered a heavy blow from regulators. Prior to this, there were four accidents involving Tesla vehicles with FSD enabled, prompting an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

#03

Awaiting the Arrival of the 'iPhone Moment'

Although Musk's Robotaxi ambitions have yet to convince Wall Street investors, they have stirred up the top players in the autonomous driving race.

On the day the Tesla Cybercab debuted on Hollywood streets, the Chinese market, across the ocean, was flooded with images of a "global autonomous driving radish conference." On one side were Tesla and Google's self-driving cars, representing the "foreign radish" camp, and on the other side was Luobo Kuaipao, representing the "local radish" camp. The updated three-legged stool structure hinted at an increasingly intense competition in the upcoming race.

The day before the event, Luobo Kuaipao, a veteran player in the domestic autonomous driving race, announced its imminent entry into overseas markets and the launch of the Apollo autonomous driving open platform 10.0, equipped with Baidu's latest autonomous driving large model ADFM. It was also revealed that Luobo Kuaipao planned to launch an unmanned taxi service in Hong Kong.

Luobo Kuaipao emerged from Baidu's autonomous driving project launched in 2013 and was named the "Apollo" program in 2017. It officially debuted under the name "Luobo Kuaipao" in 2021. In May of this year, Baidu released Apollo ADFM, the world's first large autonomous driving model that supports L4 autonomous driving applications. It has been fully applied in the sixth-generation unmanned vehicles launched by Luobo Kuaipao in 2022, with a competitive mass production price of less than $30,000.

Before going overseas, Luobo Kuaipao had already conducted manned test operations in limited areas and times in 11 Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, Yangquan, Hefei, and Changsha.

As a leading autonomous driving giant in the US, Google naturally does not want to lag behind. Recently, in addition to expanding its operating areas on the San Francisco Peninsula and in Los Angeles, Waymo has partnered with ride-hailing giant Uber to launch hundreds of unmanned taxi services and plans to collaborate with automakers like General Motors and Hyundai to accelerate its layout in the autonomous driving field.

However, on the other hand, Google, which has been in the autonomous driving field for years and invested heavily, still faces the dilemma of not being able to turn a profit. An industry analysis report pointed out that Waymo's unmanned taxis are already on the roads in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. However, the company lost $2 billion in the first half of this year, even with operating costs kept to a minimum.

Operating costs are a significant obstacle to profitability in autonomous driving. In July of this year, Luobo Kuaipao's projected profitability in Wuhan by 2025 provided the market with a glimmer of hope for profitability. Behind this is the fact that the cost of Luobo Kuaipao's sixth-generation unmanned vehicles has decreased by 60% compared to the fifth-generation vehicles, priced at around 200,000 yuan.

With Tesla's entry, the arrival of the autonomous driving "iPhone moment" may further accelerate. However, in this process, the regulation of safety and the issue of scalable profitability for Robotaxis will still be a long wait.