iPhone 16 is just a "transition".

Less than a month remains until the annual Apple autumn product launch event, the tech world's equivalent of the Spring Festival Gala. As the star of the show every autumn, the iPhone is naturally the most talked-about smartphone in the past two months.

However, Bloomberg tech journalist Mark Gurman has thrown a bucket of cold water on Apple fans in his latest newsletter: the upgrades for the iPhone 16 series may be minimal, as Apple has shifted its focus to the iPhone 17 series. To back up this claim, Mark Gurman also previewed the iPhone 17 series' new product plans in advance, revealing that a thinner and more powerful iPhone Air will debut for the first time.

(Image source: fpt.)

In previous years, the upcoming iPhone has always been the center of attention ahead of the Apple autumn event. However, this year, the spotlight has shifted to the "next next generation" iPhone, leading some to speculate that the iPhone 16 series is merely a transitional product for Apple. Based on all the preliminary leaks, Lei Technology believes there's more to this story than meets the eye.

Will iPhone stun the world with extreme thinness and lightness?

Initially, the slim version of the iPhone 17 was rumored to be named iPhone 17 Slim, but Mark Gurman later confirmed it as iPhone 17 Air. Whether it's called "Slim" or "Air," this new positioning of the iPhone points to extreme thinness and lightness.

The pursuit of extreme thinness and lightness in smartphones dates back about a decade. In 2013, Huawei released the Ascend P6, which had a thickness of just 6.18mm, breaking the record for thinness among flagship phones at the time. In 2014, Gionee and vivo followed suit with the ELIFE S 5.1 and X5 Max, respectively reaching thicknesses of 5.1mm and 4.75mm, with the latter's record still unbroken to this day.

(Image source: vivo)

Extreme thinness and lightness were once the mainstream direction in the smartphone market, rivaling today's imaging flagships. Later, as smartphone performance, heat dissipation, battery life, and imaging demands continued to rise, users' pursuit of thinness and lightness took a back seat. Who would have thought that a decade later, Apple would revisit this design philosophy?

Mark Gurman stated that the design of the iPhone 17 Air should be as stunning as when the MacBook Air first debuted—fans should remember Steve Jobs pulling an A4 paper-sized MacBook Air out of an envelope at the 2008 keynote.

However, the MacBook Air combines extreme thinness and lightness with impressive performance. Similarly, the iPhone 17 Air, while featuring an ultra-thin design, also needs to impress consumers with its other features. According to supply chain sources, the iPhone 17 Air will be the first model in the main iPhone flagship series to equip Apple's in-house communication baseband chip, underscoring its product status. In terms of core performance, the iPhone 17 Air will be equipped with the A19 chip, consistent with other models of the same generation.

(Image source: MacRumors)

Due to the laws of physics, extreme thinness and lightness often mean sacrificing some hardware components, such as battery capacity and heat dissipation, which are concerning aspects of the iPhone 17 Air.

The iPhone 17 Air is an "anti-mainstream" smartphone. Tech media outlet wccftech revealed that this product has a fundamentally different market objective from its inception, prioritizing design over performance. In today's fiercely competitive smartphone market, Apple's decision to create a product that captures consumers' attention solely through design demonstrates remarkable courage.

(Image source: fpt.)

With this in mind, the four models in the iPhone 17 series can be said to have distinct roles: the standard iPhone 17 continues to target the entry-level market; the iPhone 17 Pro/Max offers powerful performance for users with professional creation needs; the iPhone 17 Air bridges the gap between the standard and Pro models, providing a new option for users who prioritize stylish design—note that this is also a trend in the Android market in 2024, with Huawei, OPPO, Honor, Xiaomi, and other brands increasingly emphasizing "beauty is justice" and embracing trendy, fashionable designs. As for the "Plus" model, its consistently low sales figures may Foreshadowing foreshadowing foreshadowing its eventual cancellation by Apple.

iPhone 16 becomes a "transition," and Apple bets on 2025

It's already mid-August, but the buzz around the iPhone 16 series has been notably quieter than previous years. Even the leak of a mockup barely made it into the top 10 trending topics on Weibo. Indeed, the iPhone 14 series had the "Dynamic Island," and the iPhone 15 series introduced "Titanium," both of which dominated trending topics. In contrast, the iPhone 16 series seems to lack standout upgrades worth discussing on its own.

Foxconn recently announced job recruitment to meet production deadlines, offering increased hourly wages of up to 26 yuan, a 7,500 yuan cash bonus for workers who complete 90 days of work, and a potential total earnings of 21,500 yuan over three months, a very attractive offer. It's clear that the iPhone 16 series has entered the production stage. Typically, basic information about iPhones in the production stage is already finalized, and supply chain sources and insiders would leak more exciting details at this time. However, the subdued discussion around the iPhone 16 series suggests that there may not be much to talk about.

In terms of hardware, the biggest upgrade for the iPhone 16 series is perhaps the uniform 8GB RAM across all models (to the amusement of Android phone users). The Pro/Max models have slightly larger sizes, and the standard model's rear camera module has shifted from a diagonal layout to a vertical one (Apple excels at such arrangements). Such minor upgrades are unlikely to entice consumers to upgrade.

(Image source: MacRumors)

Apple Intelligent, once considered a potential game-changer, is now unlikely to debut alongside the iPhone 16 series at the autumn event. Public beta testing will start in the US and some other countries/regions as early as late October, but the date for other regions remains uncertain. As for Chinese Apple fans, they may not even get to experience Apple Intelligent in 2024—Tim Cook previously addressed the issue of when Apple Intelligent would enter the Chinese market during the second-quarter earnings call, stating only that they were actively communicating and making progress without providing a timeline.

It's worth noting that the AI features in the already-released iOS 18 have been somewhat disappointing, dampening outside confidence in Apple Intelligent.

With weak attractions in both hardware and software, the iPhone 16 series feels more like a strategic defensive move for Apple, intended to maintain updates and encourage users with outdated devices to upgrade.

Market performance indicates a noticeable decline for the iPhone 15 series. The latest data from research firm CIRP shows that the iPhone 15 series accounts for only 66% of total iPhone sales in the US, compared to 79% for the previous generation, a decrease of about 13%. In the Chinese mainland market, Apple achieved impressive sales through price cuts during the Spring Festival and 618 promotions in the first half of 2024, but such "discount-driven" success is not well-regarded by the market.

(Image source: 9to5Mac)

Among them, the iPhone 15 Plus continues to perform relatively poorly, accounting for only 8% of sales, down 4% from the 12% share of the iPhone 14 Plus last year. Overall, the iPhone 16 series will likely continue the downward trend, but the standard and Pro/Max models have notable upgrades, so the decline should be manageable. The Plus model remains the most vulnerable due to its lack of price and configuration advantages.

A reasonable prediction is that the iPhone 16 series will drop in price faster than its predecessor after launch, and Apple will increase promotional efforts this year to reach its sales target of 90 million units.

iPhone 16 struggles to "win by default," and Apple desperately needs freshness to save the market

Looking back at the previous two generations of iPhones, while Apple made some design changes, such as the "Dynamic Island" on the iPhone 14 Pro and the "Titanium" material on the iPhone 15 Pro, they ultimately felt like cosmetic tweaks that failed to address the issue of aesthetic fatigue.

Tech media outlet TechSpot pointed out that the iPhone 14 offered few significant changes compared to its predecessor, making an upgrade from the iPhone 12 or 13 to the iPhone 14 uncompelling. Similarly, the iPhone 15 series received similar criticism.

Judging from the leaked mockups of the iPhone 16 series, aside from some changes to the back and color palette of the standard model, there's little difference from previous generations. However, it's difficult for Apple to completely redesign the iPhone overnight. On the one hand, the "Dynamic Island" interaction model has taken shape and requires developer support, serving as a core module for iOS dynamic interactions in the coming years. On the other hand, Apple's camera module design needs to accommodate Vision Pro's spatial video services, limiting changes to the Deco.

(Image source: MacRumors)

The best solution would be to redesign a more stylish iPhone that builds on the classic iPhone aesthetic while introducing fresh elements—this is the mission of the iPhone 17 Air. However, relying solely on design to persuade consumers to upgrade may be challenging. Lei Technology has previously reported on "extreme brands" that prioritize design, such as Nothing's phones, which have garnered a niche following.

In summary, Apple currently gives the impression of being overly conventional, lacking freshness in its products. However, it's difficult for the company to start from scratch. The departure of most of the design team led by Jony Ive has compounded the challenge. The iPhone 17 Air may be Apple's most unconventional iPhone in recent years. If you're tired of Apple's "boring" offerings in recent years but don't want to leave the Apple ecosystem, this product may be worth waiting for more than the iPhone 16 series.

Source: Lei Technology