Huawei boldly ventures into uncharted territories, while Apple plays it safe with incremental updates, but the competition between the two is far from one-sided as some may imagine.

By She Zongming

Jokes are more popular than news these days. Nowadays, nothing is off-limits for humor, and if something is, then the very notion of "if" becomes irrelevant. This is probably why shows like "Xi Ren Qi Miao Ye," "The King of Comedy: Stand-Up Season," and "Talk Show and Their Friends" have become so popular.

Recently, joke-tellers have been feasting on the tech industry's equivalent of a Spring Festival Gala, as the event took on the format of a battle arena.

Apple and Huawei both released new products on the same day. One boasted of its "highlight moment," while the other claimed to be "constantly shining." Calling it a "face-to-face confrontation" wouldn't be an exaggeration.

Given that Huawei and Apple represent the top of the heap among Chinese and American tech companies respectively, and that their respective fields of smart manufacturing, wireless communications, AIoT, chips, operating systems, etc., are at the forefront of the tech war between China and the US, comparisons between Huawei and Apple's new devices inevitably get tied up in the broader narrative of great power competition.

While their selling points differ - one focuses on a tri-foldable screen, the other on AI capabilities - being dragged into the framework of "a battle of technological prowess, a contest of market strategies, and a competition in the electronic information industry between China and the US" is the inevitable fate of these two iconic brands.

▲Huawei and Apple's overlapping launch dates inevitably lead to comparisons.

In this framework, fans of Huawei and Apple easily place the two new devices in an asymmetric comparison akin to "makeup vs. bare face."

Currently, some joke-tellers have been revisiting old jokes like "going to a nightclub, Huawei holding Apple" and "Huawei, far ahead of the pack," comparing Huawei's tri-foldable Mate XT to Apple's first AI-enabled iPhone 16 as a "VIP experience terminal" crushing a "nightclub hostess's standard."

So, after turning off filters, beauty modes, and face-slimming effects, which smartphone better represents the "direction of advanced productivity" in the mobile phone industry: Huawei's or Apple's?

My personal opinion is that, with Huawei extending the "high-end representative cycle" of foldable phones and the curtain yet to be fully lifted on the era of AI phones, Huawei and Apple's roles as leaders and followers have partially shifted.

Heading into the era of AI phones, Huawei and Apple each excel in their respective hardware and software areas. Huawei's tri-foldable phones strengthen its hardware advantage, while Apple's AI capabilities, still in the "futures product" stage, can enhance its software edge - provided its potential is realized.

01

To compare Huawei's Mate XT to Apple's iPhone 16, we must first zoom out to the intergenerational dimension of mobile phone development.

Although the phrase "redefining the phone" has been overused to the point of losing meaning, from a technological development perspective, the last revolutionary innovation in mobile phones came in 2007.

That year, Steve Jobs introduced the original iPhone, equipped with multi-touch technology and the iOS system, completely disrupting the mobile phone industry and ushering in a new era of smartphones. The era of mobile internet was thus born.

Since then, despite the proliferation of buzzwords like "historic breakthrough," "cross-era significance," and "milestone product," new devices have consistently fallen short of the standard for "the next generation of phones."

The question arises: Are foldable phones a revolutionary innovation in the history of mobile phones?

From the perspectives of the depth of technological breakthroughs and the breadth of market applications, they indeed constitute a significant advance. However, due to limited market penetration, they are more akin to a "standard quantum limit" breakthrough preceding the emergence of the next generation of phones.

To call it a heavyweight breakthrough is no exaggeration: The transition from a single screen to multiple screens may seem superficial, akin to a larger display. But just as the most visible external change from feature phones to smartphones was the shift from physical buttons to touchscreens, multi-screen capabilities represent manufacturers' ultimate exploration before the optimal answer to "what is the next generation of phones" emerges.

Huawei's tri-foldable phones are the pinnacle of foldable technology. While Jobs transformed the phone into a mobile phone, camera, MP3 player, and internet device, Huawei has transformed the phone into a straight phone, dual-fold phone, tablet, and computer. In terms of innovation, Huawei has taken up the mantle once held by Apple.

▲Huawei's tri-foldable phone has wowed many people.

It's also a fact that their market penetration is limited: While foldable phones are poised to become a mainstay in the high-end market, their high price tag effectively excludes most people from the user base.

According to IDC data, in the second quarter of this year, the global foldable smartphone market grew by 57% year-on-year, with shipments reaching 3.9 million units. However, foldable phone shipments accounted for just 1.3% of the overall smartphone market. Some analysts predict that foldable phones will comprise no more than 5% of the overall market in the next five years.

Embellished with handcrafted rock vein patterns, ebony waistlines, crafted logos, and legendary diamond patterns, tri-foldable phones are destined to remain "luxury goods" catering to a niche market rather than becoming mass-market products.

Han Hui, founder of Lanmei Media, argues that it's clearly wrong to judge Huawei solely through the lens of mobile phones. In the future, the P series could become a light luxury brand akin to Ralph Lauren or Coach, the Mate series could aspire to the mid-range luxury of Burberry or Versace, the foldable X series could emulate the high-end luxury of Hermes or Louis Vuitton, while Nova and Enjoy could occupy the fast-fashion and sub-brand niches respectively.

Before the mobile phone industry fully enters its next cycle, tri-foldable phones will serve as a new hallmark of high-end devices.

So, what should the next generation of phones look like?

Following the roadmap of the times, the general direction seems clear.

From the development trajectory of "PC internet - mobile internet - AI internet," AI phones represent the core form of the next generation of phones. As Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, said a few days ago, "Phones are entering the era of autonomous driving."

Tri-foldable phones represent the ultimate expression of smartphones in the "mobile era," while AI phones point to the evolution of smartphones in the "AI era." One may be the advanced stage of the current cycle, while the other represents the next cycle.

02

Currently, Huawei has seized the initiative in the new high ground of high-end phones (the foldable phone segment), while Apple aims straight for the next stop (AI phones) but has yet to prove itself.

With tri-foldable phones redefining high-end devices, Huawei's Mate XT is indeed at the forefront.

For some, last year's release of Huawei's first self-developed 5G phone, the Mate 60, was just a "light boat crossing myriad mountains" in terms of breaking through 5G chip technology blockades. Now, Huawei's release of the world's first mass-produced tri-foldable phone, the Mate XT, truly represents a "light boat crossing myriad mountains" in terms of widespread technological leadership.

While there's room for debate on the accuracy of this assessment, the fact remains that Huawei was the first to drink from the wellspring of tri-foldable phones, becoming the only global manufacturer with three form factors of foldable phones (horizontal inward fold, horizontal outward fold, and vertical fold).

"The world's first tri-foldable phone, the world's largest foldable phone, the world's thinnest foldable phone." If these claims were mere self-aggrandizement akin to a deceased brand's boast of being "the best smartphone in the Eastern Hemisphere," they would at best be high-profile without substance.

No one wants to carry around a brick, risk scratching their phone to the point of obsolescence, or experience lag and stuttering when switching between single, dual, and tri-screen modes.

Huawei's Mate XT has managed to safely land this "bull" that even advertising laws couldn't restrain, thanks to its precision hinge system, the world's thinnest high-capacity silicon anode battery, super-dimensional folding organic materials, UTG glass, and non-Newtonian fluids.

Beyond its hardcore technology, Huawei also relies on business confidence.

In recent years, many domestic and international phone manufacturers have showcased tri-foldable "concept phones," including Samsung internationally and Honor, Vivo, TCL, and Tecno domestically.

Among them, Samsung showcased tri-foldable prototypes named Flex S and Flex G in 2022, and Tecno, a subsidiary of the "King of African Phones," released its tri-foldable concept phone, the Phantom Ultimate 2, at the end of August.

However, Huawei is the first to demonstrate mass production capabilities and confidence in strong sales. Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor, previously revealed, "Honor has completed the technological aspects of tri-foldable phones and will determine the timing of commercialization based on consumer demand."

▲Even the notoriously harsh former Meizu executive Li Nan acknowledges that no manufacturer dared to mass-produce tri-foldable phones before Huawei.

Put simply, many phone manufacturers aim to "ride the wave," while Huawei aims to "create the wave" - picking up where Jobs left off with his belief that demand is created.

The release of Huawei's Mate XT will undoubtedly help mature the foldable phone market, attracting more players, and rewarding Huawei with the title of "pioneer's dividend" for its early entry.

While the pre-order figure of over 4 million is undoubtedly boosted by the "light of domestic products" filter, it's also a testament to the "pioneer's dividend." At the very least, in the high-end phone space, Huawei can now wield more influence.

In contrast, Apple filed a patent for a foldable device hinge in May this year. According to forecasts by third-party agency Omdia, Apple is expected to release a foldable iPhone in 2026, followed by foldable iPad products.

However, followers and pioneers are inherently in different positions. One need only look at the significant price difference between Huawei's Mate XT and Apple's iPhone 16 to see this.

03

It's foreseeable that before AI phones supplant tri-foldable phones as the next generation of phones, Huawei will reclaim its leading position in the high-end phone market with its advanced foldable technology.

However, in the long run, foldable phones represent the midpoint, while AI phones represent the second half.

While Huawei dominates the foldable phone market, Apple, which is lagging behind in foldable phones but aims to establish a stronghold in the AI phone market, hasn't yet reached the point where we can definitively say "who won big and who lost big."

For years, Apple's new product launches have been met with ridicule. Apple often sees itself as "amazing, my device," while the outside world sees it as "resting on its laurels."

This iPhone 16 launch was no exception. While Cook called the iPhone 16 "the most advanced iPhone ever," netizens mocked it as "making do without real innovation" and "technology, based on changing the case," with Elon Musk, a notorious Apple critic, joining in the fun.

Apple has earned this criticism. While the internet's "mocking the iPhone for lack of innovation while still willingly paying for its secure ecosystem" is a testament to Apple's appeal, Jobs' legacy is slowly running dry.

Despite the ridicule, dismissing the AI capabilities of Apple's first AI phone, the iPhone 16, as subpar would be akin to suffering from "Apple-hater blindness."

While it's true that Apple got an early start in AI with Siri but lagged behind, as the mobile phone manufacturer with the strongest integration of hardware and software, one can't ignore the potential of Apple's AI in creating the ideal AI phone assistant for users.

Apple's emphasis on its new 3-nanometer A18 chip and the added "camera control" button on the side are both designed to enhance its AI capabilities.

▲The advanced A18 chip is a key selling point of Apple's iPhone 16.

How Apple's self-developed edge-side model, cloud model, and GPT-powered systems, bolstered by OpenAI and private cloud computing, will shape up remains to be seen until its official launch in October.

Nevertheless, the combination of its chip and advanced AI integration capabilities makes it a force to be reckoned with.

It's worth noting that some online commentators dismiss the A18 chip as mere hype, but chips are a crucial factor in the AI phone competition. The A18 is 40% faster than the A16 chip's GPU (5-nanometer process) in the iPhone 15 and twice as fast as the A14 GPU (7-nanometer process)... Industry insiders understand the significance of this.

Purely from an AI functionality standpoint, Apple's iPhone 16 doesn't directly compete with Huawei's Mate XT, which has basic AI capabilities but lacks distinctive AI features. Huawei's Mate 70 would be a more comparable rival.

04

By launching its first AI phone, does Apple automatically take the lead in the ultimate AI phone battle against Huawei?

Certainly not. While Huawei's tri-foldable phone represents a hardware innovation, Apple's focus on Apple Intelligence enhances the user experience through software. Both lay the groundwork for better AI phones.

With HarmonyOS on the inside and a tri-foldable display on the outside, Huawei's phones can serve as smart entry points to the next era, with larger screens and innovative interaction logic that transcend mere phones.

Huawei has no shortage of AI capabilities. In August 2023, it announced the full integration of HarmonyOS 4 with its self-developed Pangu Large Model 3.0, becoming the world's first mobile operating system embedded with AI large model capabilities, and empowering its voice assistant, Xiaoyi, with many AI phone possibilities.

Meanwhile, Apple's strengths in hardware, software, and ecosystem make it an inevitable frontrunner in the race for AI phones.

In the AI era, its 3-nanometer chip and advanced large model integration capabilities could become its trump cards.

The differing positions of Huawei and Apple in the foldable phone market reflect their distinct roles: Apple, having long held the top spot as the world's largest company by market capitalization, prioritizes system stability, ecosystem integrity, and seamless user experience over radical experimentation like other phone manufacturers. As such, it has become accustomed to a more conservative approach. Meanwhile, Huawei's mobile phone business has faced siege since 2018, forcing it to innovate and adapt to survive.

In the battle of AI mobile phones, both sides have their own advantages. Your advantage lies in chips, while mine lies in foldable large screens. It depends on who can make good use of the existing advantages and explore more new ones.

It must be noted that since Google announced the built-in large end-side model on Pixel mobile phones in May 2023, firing the first shot in the AI mobile phone war, the battle for AI mobile phones has become inevitable. Huawei, which has the ability to rise from the ashes, and Apple, which has realized that it has fallen behind in the AI competition and is starting to catch up, still have many battles to fight.

Who can go further in the era of AI mobile phones remains to be seen with time.

In the long run, despite Huawei's victory in this current chess game on the top of the "Monkey King Mountain" - Huawei boldly venturing into uncharted territories while Apple is "squeezing the toothpaste +1", the competition between the two is far from the "one-sided victory" imagined by some people.

From this perspective, it is easy to set up a topic framework of "I win big, you lose big", but it is too important to avoid arrogance and impatience on the basis of recognizing the multifaceted reality.

Operation | Li Wan

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