By mid-March, the typically calm mobile phone market was suddenly thrown into disarray by a flurry of 'price adjustment announcements.' After repeated warnings about escalating component costs throughout 2025, the price surge of 2026 has transitioned from mere 'rumor' to a confirmed reality.

From frenzied offline store activity to online official price hikes, this wave, hailed as the 'largest in nearly five years,' is deeply influencing every consumer's mobile phone purchasing decisions. During my field visits, I observed that as the supply of memory chips continues to tighten, the entire mobile phone industry is undergoing a significant shake-up.

1. ''OPPO Sparks the Price Surge

On March 10, OPPO officially initiated the 2026 spring mobile phone price hike with an announcement. The notice disclosed that due to escalating costs of key components, including high-speed storage hardware, prices for certain released OPPO and OnePlus products would be adjusted starting March 16. This impacts the OPPO A series, K series, and the OnePlus brand.

This is not an isolated event. Samsung's Galaxy S26 series, launched in late February, set the precedent, with its standard version for the Chinese market seeing a price increase of over 1,000 yuan compared to its predecessor. According to Beike Finance, this marks the largest and most significant price adjustment in the mobile phone industry in nearly five years.

During a visit to a major mall in Beijing, a salesperson at an official VIVO authorized experience store bluntly stated, 'Some prices have already gone up, and the rest will follow soon—at least 500 yuan more. Every brand is raising prices. Take this model, for example—it was 5,999 yuan, now it's 6,499 yuan.' A staff member at a Honor store also revealed that budget models might see price increases under new names, while new models will definitely see hikes.

In addition to the brands that have already announced price increases, plans from more leading manufacturers have emerged. Reports from Securities Times e-Company and Southern Metropolis Daily indicate that channel and ODM manufacturers have disclosed that several top brands, including vivo, Xiaomi, and iQOO, have drafted price hike plans and intend to initiate a new round of collective price adjustments in March. All vivo mobile phone products may see price increases starting March 15, with expected rises of 10% to 15%, although vivo has yet to respond as of now.

Industry insiders have further revealed that with frequent fluctuations in memory costs, the Chinese mobile phone market may face a historic scenario of multiple price hikes within a single year in 2026. Regarding specific price increase ranges, market research firm Counterpoint Research predicts that after March, the average selling price of new mobile phone models in the Chinese market will rise by 15% to 25% compared to similarly positioned models in 2025.

2. ''AI Triggers a 'Memory Shortage'?

Why have mobile phone prices suddenly surged across the board? Delving into the supply chain reveals a critical component: 'memory chips.'

'Memory chip quotes in the first quarter of this year are nearly four times those of the same period last year,' admitted Lu Weibing, President of Xiaomi Group, highlighting the industry's predicament. Xiaomi founder Lei Jun also publicly stated during the Two Sessions that the explosive growth in AI demand has led to a severe shortage of memory chips, with prices for memory chips rising significantly over the past year, placing immense pressure on the mobile phone business.

Analysis by CNR Business reporters points out that the rapid development of artificial intelligence has triggered a squeeze on memory chip production capacity. Each AI server requires eight times the DRAM and three times the NAND compared to ordinary servers. Memory manufacturers are accelerating the shift of production capacity toward high-margin products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DDR5, directly squeezing the supply space for mobile phone memory.

Zhang Cheng, an investment advisor at Datong Securities, believes that memory chip prices have risen relatively significantly over the past two months, with some mobile phone manufacturers' memory chip inventories nearly depleted, necessitating price increases to cover existing cost pressures.

In addition to memory chips, costs for other components have also risen. According to Southern Metropolis Daily, foundry fees for advanced process chips have increased year after year, with the cost of a single Snapdragon 8 Elite chip exceeding 1,850 yuan, and 2nm foundry services being 50% more expensive than 3nm. OLED flagship screens have risen from 800 yuan to 1,100 yuan, with a 300 yuan increase in the cost of a single screen. Coupled with overall increases of 8% to 12% in costs for high-density batteries, metal frames, manufacturing, logistics, and labor, manufacturers' cost pressures have further intensified.

At the same time, new models in 2026 generally come equipped with features previously exclusive to flagship models, such as on-device AI, satellite communication, and telephoto imaging, increasing R&D and patent costs—another significant factor driving price adjustments by manufacturers.

3. ''The Plight of Budget Smartphones

This price surge wave triggered by AI is profoundly reshaping the competitive landscape of the mobile phone industry.

Low- to mid-end models with thin profit margins are bearing the brunt. According to a Counterpoint report, the cost share of memory semiconductors in smartphone BOMs (Bill of Materials) has risen from 10% to 15% to over 20%, with some low- to mid-end models approaching 50%. Many budget smartphones have already fallen into negative gross margin territory. One dealer lamented to reporters, 'Offline mobile phone prices have risen, and it's hard to find models under 1,000 yuan—all have gone up by several hundred yuan.'

This has also directly led to a divergence in consumer purchasing strategies. Faced with rising purchase costs, some users are choosing to 'hold out a bit longer,' extending the lifecycle of their current phones. Data shows that the average replacement cycle for domestic users reached nearly 33 months in the first half of 2025. Another group of users prefers to 'go all-in,' opting to spend a bit more on high-end models to ensure longer usability.

For the industry, this represents an unavoidable shake-up. IDC predicts that global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to decline by 12.9% year-on-year, reaching their lowest annual level since 2013. The survival space for small and medium-sized manufacturers lacking supply chain bargaining power is being rapidly compressed. In late February, Meizu's announcement of suspending its mobile phone business for strategic transformation served as a poignant reminder—AI-driven memory price hikes have breached its already fragile financial defenses.

Pan Helin, a member of the Expert Committee on Information and Communication Economics at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, believes that computing power chips operate on a cyclical basis of about one to two years, making short-term price hikes inevitable. However, rising prices will attract more manufacturers to enter or expand production capacity while also suppressing demand, ultimately achieving normal market supply-demand regulation.

For ordinary consumers, the decision of whether to buy a phone now is not a simple 'yes' or 'no' question. Some argue that in this wave of price hikes, manufacturers should not solely blame AI but also reflect on the 'path dependency' that has set in after hardware innovation in mobile phones has reached a stalemate. When the marginal effects of 'spec-stacking innovation' diminish, 'visible upgrades' like increasing memory capacity—which users strongly perceive—become 'cost black holes' amid supply chain fluctuations.

Whether to 'avoid buying to save money' or 'buy early to beat the hike' may only be answered by time. However, one thing is certain: in this butterfly effect triggered by AI, both manufacturers and consumers will need to readjust to a 'more expensive' era for mobile phones.