When we focus on rocket launches, a significant driving factor is the networking of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) internet satellites. The GW constellation, proposed in 2020, and the Qianfan constellation, which began its proposal process in 2021, collectively form a colossal network of nearly 28,000 satellites. This represents one of the most pivotal sources of demand for China's commercial space sector in recent years.

However, in the last week of 2025, China made a historic record-breaking application to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for frequency and orbital resources for 203,000 satellites, comprising 14 constellations.

In January 2026, SpaceX also submitted an application to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to deploy up to 1 million satellites, aiming to construct an "orbital data center system" for AI computing in LEO.

Following closely, Dreame unveiled an even bolder plan at the 2026 AWE, proposing to launch 2 million computing satellites to establish a space-based AI computing center.

28,000, 200,000, 1 million, 2 million.

The numbers continue to escalate, becoming increasingly staggering. But the real question is: How many of these satellites will actually be launched into space?

01 Limited Space and the Importance of Positioning

Many believe that hundreds of thousands or even millions of satellites are unattainable. However, for the space industry, the more critical question is whether there are enough orbital slots.

Earth's LEO is not an infinite expanse.

Between 400 kilometers and 2,000 kilometers, the orbital resources capable of supporting the long-term stable operation of large satellite constellations are inherently finite. Estimates of capacity vary among different institutions and experts, but there is a general consensus that when considering factors such as orbital safety, collision avoidance, space debris, and long-term operational management, the number of satellites that the entire LEO can accommodate is far less than the numbers being proposed.

60,000 to 100,000 satellites represent a range from reasonable to extreme. But this is clearly far smaller than the actual numbers being proposed by various countries.

Therefore, we must first understand the rules set by the ITU.

The ITU is responsible for coordinating global orbital and frequency resources. Submitting an application does not mean truly owning the orbit; it is more akin to taking a number in a queue.

After obtaining a number, deployment must be completed in accordance with regulations. Launching the first satellite into orbit is just the first step, followed by years of ongoing compliance requirements. Simply put, filing only grants eligibility; what truly determines resource allocation is whether the satellites can be launched.

In other words, ITU filings are not like buying a house; they are more like getting in line. You can take a number and secure a position, but whether it can be fulfilled depends on your ability to send satellites into orbit within the specified time.

Once this principle is understood, many filing actions become easier to interpret.

The GW constellation, often referred to as the "National Network," has a planned total scale of 12,992 satellites and adopts a multi-layer orbital design. It is the core national-level project for China's satellite internet construction. As of the first half of 2026, it has entered the stage of networking with hundreds of satellites, undertaking the task of building China's future LEO internet backbone network.

The Qianfan constellation, operated by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite, plans for approximately 15,000 satellites. After its inaugural launch in 2024, it had also entered the stage of deploying hundreds of satellites by 2026 and completed maritime communication tests and international market expansion. It is currently one of the fastest-advancing projects in China's commercial satellite internet.

Together, these two projects account for nearly 28,000 satellites and represent the true main battlefield of China's current LEO internet construction.

As for earlier projects like Hongyan and Hongyun, which once shouldered the exploration tasks for China's LEO internet, their historical missions have largely been completed with the advancement of GW and Qianfan. Additionally, the Honghu-3 constellation, planned by Landspace's subsidiary Hongqing Technology with approximately 10,000 satellites, represents the exploration of LEO internet by private enterprises.

Looking back at the application for 203,000 satellites, over 95% of the scale comes from a single entity—the Radio Frequency Spectrum Development, Utilization, and Technological Innovation Research Institute. Its two proposed constellations, CTC-1 and CTC-2, each comprise approximately 97,000 satellites, totaling nearly 193,000. The remaining dozen or so constellations add up to less than 10,000 satellites. Xinhua News Agency, citing experts from the National Radio Frequency Spectrum Management Center, stated in its report that this filing "belongs to a routine operation to fulfill relevant procedures and should be viewed rationally by all parties." This suggests that the filing holds more significance in terms of positioning.

Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce orbital resources, filing itself is a strategic move. You may not be ready to build the constellation today, but you must preserve the possibility of future development. For any country hoping to participate in the future competition for space infrastructure, frequency and orbital resources are strategic assets that must be reserved in advance.

SpaceX's plan for 1 million satellites follows a similar logic.

Although Musk has already launched over 10,000 Starlink satellites, making him the one who has truly realized a mega-constellation, even 1 million satellites remain an extremely exaggerated figure. Even if nearly a hundred satellites are launched per mission, it would require tens of thousands of launches to complete deployment. From an engineering perspective, this seems more like reserving imaginative space for the next decade or so rather than a construction plan that can be executed today.

Dreame's proposal for 2 million satellites, on the other hand, appears more as a vision statement. Compared to the satellites themselves, it expresses an imagination of future space-based computing infrastructure.

Therefore, a simple subtraction makes it easy to see the reality. The core constellations truly entering the engineering construction phase are mainly GW and Qianfan.

And it is these tens of thousands of satellites that constitute the largest source of demand for China's commercial space industry in the next decade.

02 The Role of Tens of Thousands of Satellites

What are 30,000 satellites for? The most direct answer is, of course, communication.

Ocean shipping, aviation connectivity, emergency disaster relief, and global communication coverage are the most realistic application scenarios for LEO satellite internet. China's construction of a LEO internet is not simply replicating Starlink's business model but building a new infrastructure to serve global communication needs.

However, if we only view these 30,000 satellites as a communication network, we still underestimate their significance.

Many people focus on user numbers, communication speed, and business models when discussing satellite internet, but for China's commercial space industry, more critical changes are happening on the industrial side.

For many years, China's commercial space industry has not lacked technology or projects.

What it lacked was demand.

Launching a satellite completes a mission. Launching a rocket completes a delivery. Developing a model completes an acceptance. Whether it is satellite manufacturing or rocket launches, the essence is closer to a project-based logic.

Once the project ends, the demand ends.

GW and Qianfan are different. They are not about launching a few dozen satellites or building an experimental system but planning to continuously deploy nearly 30,000 satellites over the next decade or so and establish a long-term operational system.

This means that over the next ten years, China will need to continuously produce satellites, build ground systems, conduct rocket launches, and perform in-orbit replenishment and satellite replacements.

For commercial space, this is not a project but a long-term market.

Many industries have undergone similar processes. What truly transformed China's rail transportation industry was not a single railway line but the long-term demand generated by the continuous construction of a national railway network.

For commercial space, LEO constellations are playing a similar role.

Therefore, the greatest significance of 30,000 satellites may not be the communication services they will provide in the future but the fact that they, for the first time, provide China's commercial space industry with a sufficiently large, long-term, and certain source of demand.

And this is precisely the prerequisite for the industry to achieve large-scale development.

03 What Happens If They Can't Be Launched?

Many people discuss constellations with a focus on when they will be completed. However, a more worthwhile question is: What will be lost first if they can't be launched?

The first thing lost is the time window.

Orbital resources will not wait indefinitely. Any constellation must complete deployment according to a set schedule. If launch capabilities cannot keep up, the entire construction cycle will be prolonged, and time itself is a cost.

The second thing lost is deployment initiative.

LEO is not a blank canvas but a chessboard being continuously filled. As more constellations enter orbit, subsequent satellites will face more complex orbital coordination, higher collision avoidance requirements, and higher operational costs.

The greater risk is that the entire industry may revert to a project-based development logic.

Over the past decade, China's commercial space industry has been searching for its own market. Rocket companies have continuously increased their lift capacity, and satellite enterprises have continuously reduced costs. However, without sustained and stable demand, these capabilities are ultimately difficult to scale.

For companies involved in satellite electronics, phased array antennas, laser communication terminals, and ground equipment, what truly drives technological maturity is not the laboratory but orders. If deployment slows down, the supply chain will struggle to form sustained production capabilities, and many products will revert to a "small-batch customization" state. This is not an issue for a single company but for the entire industrial ecosystem.

From this perspective, what truly matters in constellation construction is not how many satellites are launched into space but whether a continuously operating industrial flywheel can be formed.

Because only through continuous deployment can sustained production be supported; only through sustained production can cost reductions be achieved; and only through cost reductions can commercial space truly achieve large-scale development.

04 What Is Being Forced Is Not Just Rockets but an Entire Industrial System

Launching satellites continuously, at low cost, and at high frequency has never been a simple launch issue. What constellations truly force is not just a specific engine, a rocket company, or a particular recovery technology but an entire industrial system built around high-frequency launches.

According to public data, China conducted approximately 25 commercial carrier rocket launches in 2025. However, based on the deployment needs of GW and Qianfan in the coming years, the launch demand generated by satellite internet construction alone could reach dozens of launches per year by 2027-2028 and further approach hundreds of launches per year around 2030.

This is not just simple growth but a change in the entire industry's operating mode.

In the past, China's space system excelled at engineering logic. Completing tasks, achieving breakthroughs, and ensuring success were the most critical goals of the engineering system. However, once 30,000 satellites truly enter the deployment phase, the industry will no longer face the question of "whether it can be built" but "whether it can be continuously built."

SpaceX's ability to achieve over 170 launches per year is not solely due to advanced engines or first-stage recovery. More importantly, it has established batch engine production capabilities, a high-frequency launch site system, a standardized supply chain system, and a mature operational system, gradually transforming highly engineered space activities into an industrial production capability.

This is the transformation that China's commercial space industry is currently undergoing.

It is not about moving from not being able to build rockets to being able to build them but from "building one and launching one" to "continuous manufacturing and continuous launching."

This change may not seem as dazzling as a successful maiden flight, but it determines the industry's development ceiling over the next decade.

Because what truly determines the scale of an industry is never peak technical capability but stable production capacity.

05 Constellations Are a Means, Not an End

Looking one step further ahead.

30,000 satellites are not the endpoint. For China, satellite internet itself is only the result; more important are the launch capabilities, manufacturing capabilities, and orbital resource advantages formed during the construction process.

Whether it is future space manufacturing, in-orbit servicing, or more distant space resource development, they all essentially rely on the same two things: the ability to enter orbit and the ability to remain in orbit long-term.

Therefore, today's constellation competition may seem like a fight for the communication market, but it is actually a fight for admission tickets to the future LEO economic era.

From this perspective, the greatest value of the constellation strategy may not lie in the satellites themselves.

What it truly changes is the development logic of China's commercial space industry.

In bygone days, China's commercial space sector leaned heavily on individual project propulsion. Nowadays, however, the advent of tens of thousands of satellites has fostered a colossal demand market, poised to endure for over a decade.

It is precisely this market that is compelling rockets, satellites, launch pads, supply chains, and operational frameworks to expand in tandem.

Submission of applications is merely the starting point; deployment marks the true test of competitiveness.

Orbits do not pause for anyone, nor does the opportunity for industrial advancement linger indefinitely.