On December 31, 2025, LandSpace's IPO application for the STAR Market was accepted. On March 31, 2026, CAS Space's IPO application for the STAR Market was also accepted. One after the other, these two companies have pushed China's commercial rockets to the doorstep of the capital market.

It seems that this is a competition for China's first commercial spaceflight "first stock."

If it were just for a title, it would certainly not be worth discussing repeatedly. However, for China's commercial spaceflight industry, the first commercial rocket company to go public is likely to be the first sample to be systematically priced by the public market.

Over the past few years, China's commercial rocket companies have told many stories. Liquid oxygen-methane, reusability, high payload capacity, recovery technology, multiple satellites per launch... The primary market can believe these stories, local governments can support them, and industrial funds can bet on them. But in the secondary market, these stories must be transformed into a comparable, disclosable, and sustainably trackable pricing system.

Therefore, the competition for the "first commercial spaceflight stock" is not about a title but about the right to define the industry's value when it is first priced by the capital market. Whoever goes public first will set the standard.

01

LandSpace and CAS Space are both representatives of China's commercial spaceflight industry, but their paths to the capital market are entirely different.

LandSpace applies the fifth set of listing standards for the STAR Market, which is essentially a institutional arrangement for high-R&D, high-investment, and long-cycle enterprises. According to the review guidelines, companies must achieve the first successful orbital launch of a medium-to-large launch vehicle using reusable technology. The Zhuque-3 completed its maiden flight and successfully reached orbit in December 2025, just around the time the guidelines were issued, meeting the requirements for interim technical achievements.

CAS Space applies the second set of standards. Its reusable liquid rocket is still in the development phase and has not yet achieved the interim results required by the fifth set of standards. However, the second set of standards is better suited to CAS Space's current solid rocket launch records and commercial delivery capabilities. Over the past few years, the Lijian-1 has completed 13 launches with 12 successes, forming a relatively mature commercial service capability and accumulating a relatively stable base of market-oriented clients.

This is the fundamental difference between the two companies.

LandSpace represents "technological foresight + future expectations." Reusability, liquid oxygen-methane, and large liquid rockets determine that its valuation logic is primarily based on the future. CAS Space, on the other hand, represents "reliable delivery + commercial closed loop." Stable launches, sustained delivery, and mature products constitute another, more pragmatic value system.

What makes this competition interesting is that it is not just between two companies but between two narratives of commercial spaceflight value.

If LandSpace becomes the first stock, the capital market will first price the liquid reusable route and the imagination of China's commercial rockets aligning with SpaceX's path. If CAS Space becomes the first stock, the capital market will first price the mature delivery capabilities of solid rockets and the commercial closed loop that is closer to current revenue, orders, and launch records.

Whoever becomes the "first stock" means the capital market will first price which set of logics.

Of course, the "first stock" is not just about LandSpace and CAS Space. The Kuaizhou series behind ExPace has a longer history of commercial launches, and after Wuhan State-Owned Assets entered in 2026, the signal for capitalization has strengthened. China Commercial Fire represents a centralized platform for commercial rocket capabilities within the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), but its current focus remains on the maiden flight of its main rocket, recovery verification, and commercial launch capability building.

This means that the competition for China's first commercial spaceflight stock essentially involves another layer of questions: Will it be a private technological route, a mixed-ownership platform, or a state-owned commercial entity that is first systematically priced by the public market?

02

Commercial spaceflight is a very special industry. Unlike consumer companies, which can tell stories with user numbers, repurchase rates, and gross margins, or ordinary manufacturing companies, which can quickly explain value with production capacity, orders, and cost curves, the most important value of rocket companies is often difficult to present in financial statements. For example, engine testing, system design, structural weight reduction, control algorithms, testing and launch systems, supply chain management, launch site coordination, and recovery verification. Before achieving high-frequency launches, these are all difficult to translate into profits.

This is why commercial rocket companies naturally need the capital market.

For companies, the advantages of becoming the first stock are obvious. After going public, financing channels widen. Refinancing, bonds, equity incentives, and M&A payments all have more mature tools. The biggest fear for rocket companies is not short-term losses but cash flow disruptions at critical junctures. Therefore, whoever goes public first will have stronger financial endurance.

The status of a listed company also amplifies brand credibility. Rocket companies are not selling a single device but a launch mission, the fate of a satellite, and the deployment rhythm of a constellation. When clients choose a launch service provider, they are essentially choosing a risk taker.

Then there's talent. System design, engines, control, testing and launch, supply chain, and project management—every link requires high-density professionals. If the first stock can clearly communicate equity incentives and long-term market value, its attractiveness to talent will significantly increase.

Additionally, there is a very important yet often underestimated value of being the first stock: M&A.

It is unlikely that all companies in China's commercial rocket industry will survive. Currently, there are many players and many routes. Solid, liquid, methane, kerosene, reusable, low-cost, rapid response, horizontal recovery, and hanging recovery—all these approaches are moving forward. However, the actual market demand is not large enough to sustain so many complete rocket companies.

When capital enthusiasm cools, local subsidies shrink, and constellation deployment falls short of expectations, the industry will inevitably enter a phase of differentiation. At that point, listed companies are naturally better suited to become consolidators. They can buy teams, production lines, testing resources, technological assets, supply chain capabilities, and even integrate peers through stock swaps.

This is not about the flowers and applause on the day of listing but about having an active card during future industry reshuffling.

03

Why didn't SpaceX go public until now? This is a good reference point.

On May 20, 2026, SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus to the SEC, initiating the IPO process. It plans to raise approximately $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. If successful, this will be one of the largest IPOs in global capital market history.

But SpaceX was not unqualified to go public earlier. Long before the Falcon 9 completed reusable verification, it was already the rarest company in global commercial spaceflight. Later, SpaceX's imagination in the capital market grew stronger, but it never rushed to go public.

For a rocket company, the public market is both a financing tool and a pressure system. After going public, companies must face quarterly performance, disclose more information, and explain losses, accidents, delays, and every major technological route adjustment. However, rocket R&D is not an industry suited to being cut into quarterly rhythms. An engine modification may take years. A recovery verification may require more than a dozen flights. A Starship test failure may represent technological progress but could be perceived as risk in financial statements and stock prices.

It wasn't until 2026 that SpaceX's IPO window truly opened. By then, SpaceX was no longer just a rocket company. It had high-frequency launch capabilities, cost advantages from reusability, a Starlink business that continuously generated revenue, and multiple supports from commercial clients, the U.S. government, and the global communications market.

In other words, SpaceX did not go public when the Falcon 9 first verified recovery but waited until reusability, high-frequency launches, the Starlink business, and the imagination of future space infrastructure were all in place before subjecting itself to public market pricing.

This is the truly valuable reference point for China's commercial spaceflight industry.

The situation China's commercial rocket companies face now is quite different. When LandSpace and CAS Space move toward the capital market, China's commercial rockets are still at the intersection of technological verification, product maturation, order accumulation, and business model scaling. They are not going public after fully proving profitability but entering the capital market before the industry is fully established.

This is not a question of right or wrong. The fifth set of standards is designed for such long-cycle hard-tech companies. It acknowledges the uniqueness of commercial rockets, recognizes that the industry is difficult to screen using traditional profit metrics in advance, and accepts that China's strategic emerging industries need the capital market to take risks at an earlier stage.

However, this also means that China's commercial rocket companies will face public market scrutiny earlier than SpaceX did—when will reusability truly work? When will launch frequency increase? When will per-launch costs drop? When will constellation orders materialize? These questions will not disappear because of the "first commercial spaceflight stock" halo. Instead, going public will make these questions arrive sooner.

When it comes to valuation, the aspect of LandSpace that has drawn the most attention in this IPO discussion is its fundraising scale and market valuation potential. However, focusing solely on "whether the valuation is high" narrows the perspective on commercial spaceflight. What the capital market truly needs to understand is not how much money can be made today but whether the Zhuque-3 can bring down launch costs, increase launch frequency, and enable scalable commercial service capabilities in the future.

Therefore, SpaceX's lesson for China's commercial spaceflight is not that "developing a reusable rocket guarantees a high valuation" but that reusable technology must translate into high-frequency launch capabilities, high-frequency launches must translate into cost advantages, and cost advantages must support larger constellation deployments and commercial services.

Rockets are just the entry point, but they are not the complete answer.

The reason SpaceX can be revalued by the global capital market today relies not just on rockets but on the entire commercial system formed after low-cost access to space.

04

What are the losses if a company fails to become the first stock?

There will certainly be losses, but they are not absolute.

Commercial spaceflight is not a simple short-distance race, and the first company to go public is not necessarily the one that will fare best in the end. In A-share history, many "first stocks" have become ordinary companies, while many latecomers have become true industry leaders.

Benjamin Graham once said, widely quoted: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."

The first stock solves the problem of being seen, voted on, and priced in the short term. But in the long run, the market will weigh. It will weigh launch success rates, orders, cash flow, cost reduction capabilities, recovery speed after failures, and whether a company can truly survive cycles.

Therefore, failing to become the first stock will not determine life or death. However, it will have several practical impacts.

First is the loss of narrative initiative. After the first company goes public, its prospectus, financial structure, technical route, risk disclosures, and valuation logic will become the first sample for the market to study the entire industry. When subsequent companies go public, the market will not listen to their stories from scratch but will immediately ask, "Why are you more valuable than the first company?"

Second, the valuation premium window will narrow. The capital market loves scarcity. The first commercial rocket company to go public can talk about national strategy, industrial breakthroughs, scarce assets, and long-term imagination. When subsequent companies emerge, the market will shift from excitement to comparison and then to selection. By then, emotional premiums will decline, and financial requirements will rise. The first company can focus more on the future, while latecomers must deliver more tangible results.

Third, M&A initiative may shift. If the industry enters a consolidation phase, listed companies are more likely to become acquirers, while unlisted companies may face greater pressure. This does not mean latecomers will necessarily be acquired, but their competitive positions will change.

In the past, everyone raised funds in the primary market and told "independent stories." But after listed companies emerge, the industry will have a stronger capital center. Companies that fail to complete key technological verifications, lack stable orders, and cannot sustain financing may shift from competitors to acquisition targets.

Therefore, the "first stock" is not the endpoint of destiny, but it does change positions within the industry.

05

This does not mean latecomers have no opportunities. On the contrary, the real competition in commercial spaceflight has only just begun.

The first stock determines who is first seen by the capital market, while latecomers must prove their irreplaceability in the supply chain.

China's commercial spaceflight future will not consist of just one type of company. Large low-Earth orbit constellations require high payload capacity, low cost, and high-frequency launches; small and medium satellite clients need flexible responses; some missions still require mature solid rockets; liquid reusable routes need long-term technological verification; and many companies may eventually abandon full-rocket development and shift to engines, structures, testing systems, ground equipment, launch services, and supply chain links.

Therefore, failing to secure the first stock does not mean no future. The real danger lies in having no technological breakthroughs, no stable orders, and no cost advantages.

In the coming years, China's commercial rocket industry will likely shift from "financing competition" to "asset restructuring competition."

In the past, the focus was on who raised more funds, who announced larger new models, and whose engine thrust was higher. But after the first stock emerges, competition will become more pragmatic—who can sustain financing? Who can withstand failures? Who can digest production capacity? Who can secure constellation orders? Who can consolidate when others face cash flow crunches?

At that point, the competition in commercial spaceflight will no longer be just about technical routes but about organizational capabilities.

Boldly speculating, future industry consolidation may occur in several ways.

First, listed companies may horizontally acquire peers, especially those with localized technological assets but lacking complete commercial closed loops.

Second, local state-owned assets may drive regional resource integration, packaging rockets, satellites, ground equipment, and data services into industrial groups.

Third, state-owned commercial entities may integrate private technological teams, forming new combinations of national mission capabilities and market mechanisms.

Fourth, some full-rocket companies may voluntarily shift downstream, abandoning the obsession with "building a complete rocket" and moving toward more realistic supply chain positions.

These may be the truly noteworthy changes after the first stock emerges. Therefore, going public is not the climax of the industry story but the beginning of industry differentiation.

06

From a technical perspective, the commercial logic of reusable rockets is not complex: complete technological verification, increase launch frequency, reduce costs, and then achieve scale effects. The real challenge is that each step takes time and money. Technological breakthroughs are just the starting point. What truly creates commercial value is sustained operational capability afterward.

For China's commercial rocket companies, whether it's the Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, Lijian-2, Hyperbola-3, or other reusable rockets, the next few years will see a new phase where technological verification and commercial validation proceed in parallel. If recovery capabilities can form a stable operational system, cost reductions, increased launch frequency, and improved profitability may gradually emerge.

Before that happens, the market may need to wait patiently for several years. This is the meaning of the fifth set of standards. It allows companies to receive capital support before profitability but ultimately requires a return to fundamental commercial laws.

Many companies are vying for the "first stock." However, what is truly worth anticipating may be the emergence of the "first stable profit financial report" in the future. The gap between tens of billions in valuation and tens of millions in revenue is not just a problem faced by a single company but an experiment in pricing that the entire Chinese commercial spaceflight industry is undergoing.

The country has already provided institutional arrangements, and the market will also provide its own answers.

The title of the 'first commercial aerospace stock' will ultimately fade with time. However, the valuation benchmarks, financing channels, and integration capabilities it leaves behind will profoundly influence the fate of every subsequent commercial rocket company.

The first stock is not about who reaches the finish line first. It is about who becomes the benchmark first. And once the benchmark emerges, subsequent players must answer a more difficult question: On this already unfolded map, where exactly do they stand?