Foreword:

SpaceX's IPO holds up a mirror to China's commercial aerospace.

The romance of commercial aerospace lies in the vast expanse of the stars and the sea, but victory is hidden in cost curves, order structures, and cash flows.

Author | Fang Wensan

Image source | Internet

Why can SpaceX be re-priced by the capital market?

On June 12, 2026, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) officially rang the bell on Nasdaq, issuing 555.6 million shares at a price of US$135 per share, raising a total of US$75 billion, corresponding to a company valuation as high as US$1.77 trillion.

This figure not only surpasses the previous record for the world's largest IPO of US$29.4 billion set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 but also propels SpaceX's market capitalization past Tesla's US$1.59 trillion, placing it among the top ten companies by market value on the U.S. stock market.

According to the prospectus, SpaceX achieved revenue of approximately US$18.7 billion in 2025, with its Starlink business contributing US$11.38 billion, becoming the core cash cow.

Currently, the number of Starlink satellites in orbit has exceeded 10,190, with business coverage in more than 160 countries and regions worldwide and the number of users surpassing 100 million.

SpaceX dominates the global launch market, undertaking more than 80% of the world's orbital payload missions.

The Falcon 9 rocket has been reused more than 600 times, reducing the cost per launch to approximately US$30 million, a cost advantage that leaves other competitors far behind.

In its roadshow documents, the company positions its total addressable market (TAM) at a staggering US$28.5 trillion, encompassing multiple future sectors such as satellite internet, space tourism, space manufacturing, space data centers, and lunar resource development.

It has transformed aerospace from a one-time project into a continuously operated commercial network.

The traditional logic of aerospace is project-based: when a mission arises, it is initiated, developed, launched, and accepted, with commercial companies primarily playing the role of contractors.

What SpaceX changes is that it places launch, satellite manufacturing, constellation operation, terminal sales, network services, and government orders within the same flywheel.

The value of the Falcon 9 does not lie in a single cheap launch but in the data, experience, supply chain dilution, and reliability accumulation brought about by high-frequency use.

The more launches, the lower the unit cost; the lower the cost, the faster the deployment of Starlink; the larger the scale of Starlink, the more stable the internal launch demand; and stable demand, in turn, supports the continuous operation of rocket production lines, launch sites, recovery systems, and measurement and control networks.

Once this cycle is established, commercial aerospace becomes an infrastructure business characterized by heavy assets, high barriers, and strong operations.

SpaceX's moat is not just rocket recovery; what is truly difficult to replicate is the systemic capabilities brought about by high-frequency missions.

Starlink is the sharpest link in this model. Rockets provide access to space, constellations provide a chargeable network, and user terminals bring space assets back to the ground market.

SpaceX has created its own major customer through Starlink. It not only launches satellites for others but also lays tracks for its own network.

This is why the capital market is willing to give SpaceX an extremely high valuation. It is no longer simply classified as an aerospace company but is valued at the intersection of communications, defense, AI infrastructure, global internet access, and deep space development.

Where do the growth rate and gaps of China's commercial aerospace lie?

In 2025, the market size of China's commercial aerospace reached RMB 2.83 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. It is expected to exceed RMB 3.5 trillion in 2026, maintaining a high growth rate of over 20%.

In 2025, a total of 67 commercial launch missions were carried out domestically, accounting for 58.8% of the total number of aerospace launches for the year, a 55.8% increase from 43 in 2024.

In December 2025, LandSpace's "Zhuque-3" completed its first flight of a liquid oxygen-methane rocket and verified recovery technology, becoming the world's first liquid oxygen-methane rocket to achieve continuous orbital insertion.

This breakthrough marks a key step forward for China in the field of reusable rocket technology, with the potential to reduce the cost per kilogram of launch from the current RMB 50,000-100,000 to less than US$10,000.

In the field of satellite manufacturing, companies such as Galaxy Space have built world-class satellite intelligent manufacturing factories, reducing the cost per satellite to the tens of millions level and shortening the production cycle to 5 days.

While acknowledging these achievements, it is also necessary to recognize the gaps that exist compared to SpaceX.

① Launch cost and efficiency: Currently, the cost per launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is approximately US$30 million, while the launch cost of Chinese rockets of the same class is about US$100 million, more than three times that of SpaceX.

The Falcon 9 rocket has achieved more than 25 reuses, while China's reusable rockets are still in the technical verification stage and have not yet achieved commercial application.

In terms of launch efficiency, SpaceX completed 165 launches in 2025, averaging one launch every 2.2 days, while China's total number of commercial launches for the year was 67, indicating a significant gap.

② Constellation scale and commercialization progress: As of April 2026, SpaceX's Starlink had more than 10,190 satellites in orbit and over 100 million users, achieving stable profitability.

In contrast, China's low-Earth orbit constellation construction is still in its infancy, with a combined total of approximately 244 satellites in orbit for the GW constellation and the Qianfan constellation, and commercial applications are still being explored.

Starlink already provides services in more than 160 countries and regions worldwide, while China's satellite internet services are currently mainly oriented toward the domestic market, with global market layout (layout) just beginning.

③ Single business model: Currently, the revenue of domestic commercial aerospace companies is highly dependent on policy orders, and a sustainable commercial payment model has not yet been found.

The top five customers of National Star Aerospace account for 78% of its revenue, with RMB 284 million in accounts receivable aged over two years.

Although downstream application services account for 90% of industry value, the current value focus of China's commercial aerospace is still mainly concentrated in the upstream manufacturing sector, and there is a long way to go in exploring and commercializing application scenarios.

Where is the breakthrough point for China's commercial aerospace?

From the perspective of rockets, LandSpace is closest to the core route of reusable large liquid rockets.

Galactic Energy, CAS Space, and Oriental Space have established their positions in terms of commercial delivery and batch launch capabilities.

Companies such as Space Pioneer and i-Space are still seeking breakthroughs in the high-risk, high-difficulty liquid rocket sector.

From the perspective of constellations, the GW constellation and the Qianfan constellation are the main axes of China's low-Earth orbit internet, determining the demand density of China's commercial aerospace in the next decade and also determining which rocket companies can obtain sustained orders.

From the perspective of infrastructure, locations such as Beijing's Yizhuang, Shanghai, Wuhan, Hainan, and Jiuquan are building industrial clusters around rockets, satellites, launch sites, measurement and control, and data applications.

The Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site, Haiyang Oriental Spaceport, and Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Experimental Zone are constructing the foundation for high-frequency launches in China's commercial aerospace.

China's commercial aerospace has achieved breakthroughs at individual "points," but the problem lies in the fact that the "lines" and "surfaces" have not truly connected.

The most obvious structural contradiction in the industry currently is the heat in the upstream and slowness in the downstream; the enthusiasm for rocket building and weakness in satellite utilization; the heat in financing and thinness in cash flow.

Many companies talk about technological breakthroughs but rarely can they present continuously paid application scenarios; many places are building industrial parks but lack real demand that can accommodate a massive number of satellites and high-frequency launches.

Capital is willing to chase milestones such as first flight, orbital insertion, and recovery but lacks sufficient patience for long-term trial and error, batch manufacturing, insurance systems, and operational networks.

The breakthrough points for China's commercial aerospace may lie in the following aspects.

① "High-frequency engineering" of reusable rockets: Chinese companies have reached a critical threshold. Projects such as LandSpace's Zhuque-3 have pushed reusable rockets to the stage of actual flight verification, and companies such as Deep Blue Aerospace and Galactic Energy are also advancing vertical takeoff and landing and reusable technologies.

A single successful recovery deserves applause, but continuous recovery, rapid reflight, and cost reduction are what truly change the industry's cost curve.

This challenge is highly difficult. SpaceX's ability to achieve high-frequency launches is supported by a combination of massive U.S. government orders, commercial satellite demand, launch site resources, capital markets, and engineering culture.

Chinese commercial rocket companies cannot rely solely on financing to maintain their R&D pace; they must quickly find stable payload sources. Low-Earth orbit constellations are the most realistic traction scenario.

② Let constellations become the "anchor" of the industrial flywheel: Without constellation demand, rockets are difficult to launch frequently; without low-cost launches, constellations are difficult to scale; without large-scale constellations, terminals and applications are difficult to reduce in price; without application revenue, constellations become expensive orbital inventories.

This chain must be closed. The significance of constellations such as Qianfan and GW is not just to benchmark against Starlink; they are more like the "basic order pools" for China's commercial aerospace.

Once these constellations enter the batch deployment phase, they will drive an entire industrial chain, including rocket launches, satellite platforms, phased array antennas, inter-satellite laser links, measurement and control operations, ground gateways, user terminals, frequency and orbit coordination, and space security governance.

③ Downstream applications: The parts of the industry with the thickest profits and the broadest markets often lie not in the moment of launch but in the continuous flow of satellite data and services afterward.

Remote sensing satellites can serve natural resources, agriculture, water conservancy, urban governance, disaster monitoring, energy inspection, and insurance assessment.

Communication satellites can serve ocean-going vessels, aviation internet, emergency communications, operations in uninhabited areas, low-altitude economy, and cross-border IoT.

Navigation augmentation can serve autonomous driving, unmanned aerial vehicles, intelligent agricultural machinery, port logistics, mine transportation, and construction machinery.

This is precisely China's advantageous area. China has the world's most complete manufacturing system, a vast infrastructure network, complex industrial scenarios, and a strong digital application market.

Once commercial aerospace is deeply integrated with new energy, low-altitude economy, marine economy, intelligent connected vehicles, industrial internet, emergency management, and smart cities, there is no need to simply copy Starlink's consumer internet path.

China's opportunities are likely to emerge in complex scenarios that combine B-end and G-end applications. Once aerospace applications enter these scenarios, they will transform from conceptual valuations into real revenue.

④ Capital mechanisms: Commercial aerospace burns money and burns it for a long time. The ideal state is for policy funds to support infrastructure and first-batch applications, industrial capital to support leading companies in continuous trial and error, and the secondary market to provide larger-scale financing exits for mature companies.

When Chinese commercial aerospace companies enter the capital market in the future, they will also need to support their valuations with real launch frequencies, order quality, reuse capabilities, constellation revenue, and application scenarios.

⑤ Forming one's own system companies: The ones that can truly reshape the industry landscape will be systemic companies capable of integrating multiple links. Such companies do not necessarily have to completely replicate SpaceX's vertical integration.

China's industrial ecosystem is more suitable for division of labor and collaboration, with the national team providing basic capabilities and major project traction, commercial companies undertaking low-cost, fast-iteration, and application-oriented tasks, localities providing industrial clusters and experimental conditions, capital markets providing long-term financing, and end customers providing real scenarios.

Conclusion:

SpaceX has opened the door to Nasdaq. Whoever can turn space into an operable, payable, reusable, and scalable infrastructure will truly stand at the entrance to the new aerospace era.

China's commercial aerospace is resonating across multiple lines of policy, capital, technology, and applications, with a sufficiently complete industrial chain and rich demand scenarios. Once the closed loop is established, it has the opportunity to form a competitiveness different from that of SpaceX.

Some reference materials: Jiemian News Finance: "SpaceX Merges with xAI to Layout New Sector of Space AI Data Centers," Gaogong Aerospace Industry Research Institute: "Comparative Analysis Report on Launch Costs, Efficiency, and Constellation Construction in Commercial Aerospace at Home and Abroad," Securities Times: "Analysis of IPO Progress and Industry Profitability Status of Domestic Commercial Aerospace Enterprises," Yicai: "SpaceX Reaches a Valuation of US$1.75 Trillion and Launches the World's Largest IPO."