Recent data indicates that sales of the iPhone 15 series in the second quarter of this year fell short of expectations, with a lower market share compared to the iPhone 14 during the same period last year. According to institutional data, among the iPhones sold in the second quarter, the four iPhone 15 models accounted for 67%, significantly lower than the 79% share held by the iPhone 14 series in the second quarter of last year, marking a decrease of over 10 percentage points.

During Apple's fiscal Q1 2024 earnings call in February, CEO Tim Cook addressed analysts' questions about the performance of the iPhone 15 series post-launch, stating that sales had consistently outpaced those of the previous generation, i.e., the iPhone 14 series. It is now evident that Cook's statement was misleading.

Coinciding with the release of Apple's iPhone 15 series, Huawei's Mate60 series had already gained significant pre-sales traction in the Chinese market, delivering impressive performance. In 2024, Huawei further introduced the flagship Pura 70 series, which also received widespread recognition and purchases from Chinese consumers, thereby impacting Apple's iPhone 15 series shipments.

Although Apple offered significant discounts during China's 618 shopping festival, resulting in a temporary market share rebound, it was still unable to match the larger market share held by Huawei before its return. This underlies the fundamental reason why Apple's iPhone 15 series shipments fell short of previous generations. It's worth noting that the Chinese market has long been a crucial market for Apple, boasting unparalleled purchasing power, especially for high-end products, on a global scale.

Apple's lower-than-expected iPhone 15 series shipments in the second quarter indicate intense market competition. However, the second quarter did not fully encompass the sales share during the 618 promotional period when Apple offered discounts. Consequently, we may see some recovery in data during the next fiscal quarter. Coincidentally, the second quarter saw the launch of Huawei's Pura 70 series, which predictably eroded Apple's market share.

Institutional reports reveal that the iPhone 15 Pro Max held the highest market share among iPhones sold in the second quarter, accounting for 22%, followed by the iPhone 15 with 19%, the iPhone 15 Pro with 17%, and the iPhone 15 Plus with only 8%, the lowest among the four models in the iPhone 15 series. The reports also indicate that the iPhone 14 accounted for 15%, the iPhone 14 Plus for 2%, the iPhone 13 for 10%, the iPhone SE for 5%, and the iPhone 13 mini for 1%. Additionally, Apple shipped 45.2 million smartphones in the second quarter, up 1.5% year-on-year from 44.5 million units in the same period last year.

Based on shipment volumes and sales shares provided by two institutions, the iPhone 15 series sold approximately 30.284 million units in the second quarter of this year, compared to 35.155 million units for the iPhone 14 series in the same quarter last year. Evidently, the market influence of the new flagship product was insufficient. As Apple plans to introduce AI capabilities in the iPhone 16 series, its market value has continued to rise, regaining the top spot globally, surpassing Microsoft and the rising NVIDIA, and earning bullish forecasts from Wall Street analysts. It is believed that the introduction of AI will trigger a wave of device upgrades. In other words, the future market performance of the AI-equipped iPhone 16 is optimistic, and supply chain sources indicate that Apple has subsequently increased production preparations, signaling confidence in the iPhone 16 series shipments.

Currently, the market influence of AI-enabled phones is increasing, and users are showing interest in mobile applications with AI capabilities. This trend is seen as a significant driver for device upgrades. However, the extent of AI capabilities depends on the support of large-scale model computing power. In this regard, if Apple raises fees and standards for its AI-integrated applications, it remains to be seen whether users will continue to embrace them.