Introduction: Yesterday, Musk's Weibo account posted that there will be no "refreshed" Model Y model released this year. He added that even without a new model, the features of existing models will be upgraded through OTA.

Why was the originally planned refreshed Model Y postponed?

First, let's look at the originally planned new Model Y, which actually consisted of 24 minor revisions based on the original model and a significant refresh similar to the Model 3.

Model Y introduced 24 minor revisions in February this year. With no change in price, the core upgrade was the new intelligent hardware HW4.0, which provides a 5-fold increase in computing power and doubles the detection distance. The upgrade points include: Autopilot hardware equipped with the new generation HW4.0 hardware, camera pixel resolution increased to 5 million, detection distance up to 424 meters; New "Quick Silver" exclusive paint color; Exterior design continues Tesla's concise style with smooth body lines and modern dynamics; Interior equipped with a 15-inch touchscreen, AMD Ryzen chip, and OTA upgrade support; Motor power adjustment offers different range options; Seat configuration may add a 7-seater version, with the third row possibly for emergency use; Intelligent autopilot may introduce the full version of FSD, providing higher-level intelligent driving assistance functions; Other configurations include multi-color ambient lighting, improved acceleration performance for the rear-wheel-drive version, etc. This version is seen by mainstream media as the hardware preparation for FSD's entry into China, especially after Tesla's recent V12 version update, which made the vehicle interface consistent with V12.

In my previous article, I provided a detailed interpretation of this Tesla OTA update, but upon being reminded by netizens, I realized that there is a group of forgotten Atom owners (Tesla's first-generation model uses Intel Atom chips). Due to chip limitations, they cannot participate in Tesla's major OTA updates. On their behalf, I hope that Musk will someday remember that there is such a group of veteran Tesla owners waiting to be saved.

The postponed refresh plan for the Model Y was originally scheduled for May 2024, when Tesla would produce and launch a new Model Y model in the Chinese market. However, this plan has now been canceled. According to online information, the postponed new Model Y was originally planned to have the following upgrades: 800V fast charging, which keeps up with the current mainstream electric car configuration in China and is currently used in the Cybertruck; Significant innovations in both exterior and interior design, with a sharper front fascia similar to the refreshed Model 3 and the elimination of the traditional gear lever, replaced by screen-controlled gear shifting;

The new Model Y will also adopt a "2+3+2" seven-seater layout, which may appeal to multi-child families. However, I believe most people would still choose the 2+3 configuration, as even for large SUVs, adding a third row often reduces storage space and compromises passenger comfort. It's also possible that the new version will be lengthened (the current Y has a body length of 4750mm, and there is still about 20cm of adjustable length compared to mainstream electric cars) to enhance the rear seat experience.

In my opinion, from the exposed upgrade points, the most anticipated upgrade is the 800V fast charging. Speculation on the reasons for the delay in the launch of the refreshed Model Y: 1. Violent layoffs this year have hindered research and development progress. Tesla announced a 10% layoff in April this year, and upon returning from China at the end of April, it brutally laid off the entire supercharger team. From an industry perspective, Tesla's R&D team is already small compared to other automakers, and these layoffs have undoubtedly had a significant impact on the R&D team, with some R&D progress being hindered. Readers interested in Tesla's layoffs can refer to my previous article [Tesla's 2024 Major Adjustment] Why Musk Laid Off Employees. 2. Sales are hindered, new models are postponed, and inventory is accelerated. Tesla is facing increasing competitive pressure in the Chinese market. Data shows that the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market from January to April this year was 33%, while Tesla's sales declined by 8%. This is not due to market shrinkage but rather Tesla gradually losing its advantage in competition with other rivals. Without new models, Tesla has relied solely on the Model 3 and Y in the Chinese market, which has become increasingly challenging. The capital market is also not optimistic about Tesla's prospects, with its market value falling by nearly 30% from the beginning of the year, equivalent to a loss of trillions of RMB.

Tesla's sales this year have indeed fallen below expectations, especially in April when layoffs were announced along with news of a new model, which may have caused most potential customers to choose to wait and see. Fortunately, with support from the government, Musk met with officials at the end of April, and on the same day, the government announced that Tesla's cars meet data standards, laying the foundation for FSD's entry into China. During his visit to China, Musk also met with someone, presumably to discuss a major business deal. I believe that the delay in the launch of the new model is most likely due to inefficiency, overcapacity, and inventory backlog, leading to the postponement of the new model and accelerated inventory reduction.

3. Disruptions at the German factory. Currently, the modification and development of the new Model Y are likely to be conducted at the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg in Germany, where foreign media have captured camouflaged test vehicles of the new Model Y.

However, the German factory does not seem to be well received this year: In early 2023, a high-voltage tower near Tesla's German Gigafactory was arsoned, temporarily halting production. Since late February, climate activists nearby have been protesting against Tesla's expansion plans and deforestation activities. On May 10, radicals protested near Tesla's Gigafactory near Grünheide, Brandenburg, Germany.

In early May, Tesla suspended production at the German factory for four days, and in June, Tesla also announced a five-day production halt at the Berlin-Brandenburg Gigafactory. All this indicates that the German Gigafactory seems to be encountering operational issues, and the delay of the new Model Y may be related to this.

Conclusion: In the increasingly competitive Chinese market, relying solely on two products to compete with domestic electric cars seems inadequate. Tesla also needs new products and features to boost consumer confidence. In the first half, Tesla, as a catalyst, effectively activated the Chinese electric vehicle market; in the second half, the intelligent new Model Y equipped with FSD may spark another round of fierce competition. To put it simply, the time left for domestic automakers is limited. The future is uncertain, so let's cherish every moment.

In my previous article, I conducted a small survey comparing Huawei's Intelligent Driving System and Tesla's FSD, and the results speak for themselves.

As you can see, Huawei's Intelligent Driving System still has a long way to go before it gains widespread recognition. What do you think of this voting result? Let's discuss in the comments section.