☆ Securities Star

Weekly Report on the New Energy Vehicle Industry

According to Shanghai Metals Market, this week's market transactions displayed a trend where upstream suppliers held firm on prices with limited sales, while downstream buyers made purchases based on demand. This resulted in a significant mismatch in price expectations between the two ends of the market.

Upstream lithium salt producers maintained their stance on price stability and restricted spot sales, with some companies' selling price intentions remaining above 170,000 yuan per ton. Downstream material manufacturers, on the other hand, had relatively lower price expectations for purchases, mostly buying based on actual demand. Their willingness to make spot purchases weakened as prices climbed.

Overall, market inquiries were relatively active. However, due to the disparity in price expectations between upstream and downstream, actual transaction volumes remained relatively steady.

01. Institutional Perspectives

Galaxy Securities believes:

Technology is revolutionizing the automotive industry. Automakers are increasingly adopting centralized software architecture models. Pure electric vehicles, leveraging hardware and AI upgrades, are becoming the cornerstone of software-defined vehicles, primarily for driving assistance and battery management. Unmanned electric taxis have already been commercialized in multiple locations. The intelligence of automobiles is driving up semiconductor demand, while supply chain and cybersecurity risks are also on the rise. High-voltage fast-charging technology continues to evolve, with high-power fast-charging models seeing increased market penetration. The power demand for electric vehicles will surge, leading to diversified regional power consumption growth. Intelligent charging can alleviate grid peak demand by shifting charging loads, while vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology can provide additional flexibility to the power grid.

Huachuang Securities points out:

From the perspectives of sales and profitability, independent automakers have significant growth potential. As these automakers advance their strategies in new energy, intelligence, and global expansion, we are optimistic about their sustained development. In the medium to long term, we favor BYD (a leader with significant scale and cost advantages), Geely (a strong contender leveraging group integration for cost reduction and efficiency gains), and JAC Motors (with Zunjie expected to emerge as a leading domestic luxury brand).

In the short term, the investment focus remains on the overseas expansion of electric vehicle manufacturers. We continue to recommend the 'Three Excellence in Electric Vehicle Overseas Expansion' - Geely Automobile, Leapmotor, and BYD. Their share prices have gradually stabilized at relatively low levels. BYD, the leader, has seen a significant increase in exports starting in May, with full-year exports expected to exceed expectations. Geely Automobile, a low-valuation contender, is expected to surpass full-year performance expectations, while Leapmotor, with its flexible allocation, offers rapid growth and a clear investment rationale.

02. Macro Events

Five departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, initiate 2026 new energy vehicle rural promotion activities

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Commerce, and three other departments issued a notice to launch the 2026 new energy vehicle rural promotion activities, aiming to deepen the promotion of automobile trade-ins in rural areas.

Special zones for trade-ins will be established during these activities, offering subsidy policy promotion and 'one-stop' services, including old vehicle inspection, assessment, recycling, and subsidy application processing. This will further enhance awareness and coverage of preferential policies, facilitating rural consumers' participation and enjoyment of subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in their old vehicles for new energy vehicles can apply for automobile trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, with no quantity restrictions on subsidy eligibility.

MIIT solicits public opinions on mandatory national standards, including 'Safety Requirements for Autonomous Driving Systems in Intelligent Connected Vehicles'

On June 16, in accordance with the mandatory national standard revision plan issued by the Standardization Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology completed the preparation of two mandatory national standards (drafts for approval), including 'Safety Requirements for Autonomous Driving Systems in Intelligent Connected Vehicles' and the foreign language version of the mandatory national standard 'On-Board Emergency Call Systems for Accidents' (drafts for approval). To gather input from all sectors of society, the standard drafts for approval and their preparation explanations are now open for public comment. The public comment period runs from June 17, 2026, to June 24, 2026.

Chongqing Economic and Information Commission holds symposium on recycling used power batteries

The Chongqing Economic and Information Commission recently organized a symposium on recycling used power batteries. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen interdepartmental collaboration and urban-rural linkage, align with national regulatory requirements, and implement targeted measures for key current issues. It called for government-enterprise collaboration to promote the construction of a long-term governance system for the entire recycling chain. The meeting also stressed the importance of strengthening information traceability, initiating data reporting and updates to the national new energy vehicle power battery traceability information platform, and strictly implementing the digital ID management system for power batteries.

Furthermore, it highlighted the need to strengthen standardized disposal, reasonably layout recycling service outlets, dynamically update relevant information, resolutely prevent unauthorized cascading utilization, continuously strengthen regeneration utilization, and ensure compliant disposal of used batteries. The meeting also emphasized strengthening law enforcement deterrence, combining enforcement and regulatory means, implementing list management and account settlement for issues identified in spot checks, and standardizing the order of used power battery recycling and utilization.

11 departments: New energy heavy-duty truck penetration to reach 40% by 2030, with over 1.6 million units in operation

On June 13, 11 departments, including the Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the 'Implementation Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks.' The plan explicitly proposes that by 2030, new energy heavy-duty truck penetration will reach 40%, with over 1.6 million units in operation, accounting for about 20% of the total. This aims to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation in the transportation sector.

The plan specifies the creation of 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon highway transport corridors nationwide, with the synchronous layout of about 3,000 heavy-duty truck charging and swapping stations. It promotes the use of electric vehicles for fixed-route short-haul transport in key air pollution prevention and control regions, such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Fenhe-Weihe Plain, to exceed 80%. Additionally, the plan emphasizes increasing fiscal and financial support, coordinating various funding channels to support new energy heavy-duty truck purchases and energy replenishment facility construction, and encouraging local support through special bonds, financing guarantees, and green credit.

03. Industry News

National passenger vehicle retail sales reached 534,000 units from June 1-14

On June 17, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that from June 1-14, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 534,000 units, down 18% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 7.633 million units, down 19% year-on-year.

Among them, new energy passenger vehicle retail sales reached 341,000 units from June 1-14, down 8% year-on-year and up 5% month-on-month. Cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year reached 4.039 million units, down 15% year-on-year.

Cui Dongshu: National passenger vehicle industry inventory reached 3.48 million units at the end of May 2026, with relatively high inventory pressure

On June 15, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated in an article that at the end of May 2026, the national passenger vehicle industry inventory reached 3.48 million units, down 60,000 units from the previous month and up 30,000 units from May 2025, forming a trend of flattening inventory levels. The team's optimism about the June market dropped to 31%, the lowest historical prediction index for recent market optimism.

Based on comprehensive estimates of inventory at the end of May 2026 and domestic retail sales over the next three months, existing inventory can support future sales for 66 days, relatively higher than the 55 days in May 2023, 62 days in May 2024, and 57 days in May 2025, indicating slightly higher overall inventory pressure this May.

Institutions expect China's urban NOA solution penetration to rise from 11% in 2025 to 62% in 2030

On June 15, CIC Consulting released the 'Blue Book of the Autonomous Driving Industry - Urban NOA: The Turning Point for Autonomous Driving Commercialization.' The report shows that by 2025, China's new energy vehicle penetration had reached 54%. From March 2025 to February 2026, in the Chinese third-party urban NOA (Navigation-Assisted Driving) supplier market, Momenta accounted for a 65% market share.

The report predicts that China's urban NOA solution penetration will rise from 11% in 2025 to 62% in 2030. With increasing new energy vehicle penetration, accelerated implementation of end-to-end technology and world models, and automakers standardizing high-level intelligent driving functions in more models, over the next five years, urban NOA penetration in models priced between 100,000-200,000 yuan, 200,000-400,000 yuan, and above 400,000 yuan will grow from 3.8%, 27.2%, and 29.6% in 2025 to 62.7%, 97.0%, and 89.8% in 2030, respectively.

04. Company News

BYD's Datang EV launched, priced from 239,900 yuan

On June 17, BYD's Datang EV officially launched, with four trim levels priced between 239,900 and 309,900 yuan. Datang is BYD's new flagship model under the Dynasty series, positioned as a large SUV with a 7-seat layout, equipped with second-generation Blade Batteries and flash charging technology.

In terms of assisted driving, the new car is equipped with the 'Divine Eye 5.0' assisted driving system, enabling full-scenario detouring and full-scenario U-turning. The vehicle features rear-wheel steering, with a maximum rear-wheel steering angle of ±7°, a turning radius of only 5.2m, and also offers crab mode, while enhancing high-speed lane-changing stability.

Avatr: First model equipped with CATL Qilin condensed matter battery to be launched this year

Avatr recently announced its latest product schedule, planning to launch the large five-seat luxury SUV Avatr 07L in the third quarter. A flagship large six-seat SUV equipped with CATL's Qilin condensed matter battery will be launched within the year. The company aims to achieve annual global sales of 800,000 units by 2030, with overseas sales accounting for over 40%, covering 110 countries and regions.

Rivian to launch autonomous driving system comparable to Tesla FSD this year

RJ Scaringe, CEO of US electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian, recently stated that the company is on track and will release a supervised autonomous driving system similar to Tesla FSD later this year. Scaringe said Rivian will introduce an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) expected to enable point-to-point driving under supervision for its second-generation models and the new R2.

05. Secondary Market

Industry Performance

Industry Valuation

New Energy Vehicle Sales

06. Raw Material Prices

Lithium Compound Spot Prices

Cathode Material Prices

Electrolyte Prices

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