Although Tesla warned at the beginning of the year that the company's expansion rate might slow down significantly before producing lower-priced models, after the release of Tesla's third-quarter delivery data earlier this month, Musk still needs a "comeback" at this point.

This has also made the industry eagerly anticipate Tesla's "We, Robot" conference. After an unexpected delay, Elon Musk entered the venue in a Cybercab Robotaxi, pushing the conference to a climax. The 20-minute conference was divided into three parts: the presentation of the Robotaxi product Cybercab, the presentation of the autonomous driving van Robovan, and the presentation of the humanoid robot Optimus.

Unlike what everyone expected, only the two new vehicles, Cybercab and Cybervan, were showcased at this conference, with no sign of the rumored affordable new car Model 2. The Tesla conference, as usual, remained more of a "futures" show. Cybercab is scheduled to go into production in 2026, while Robovan's specific timeline remains undisclosed, and the Optimus robot is still in the "concept" stage. More technical details about the products were not disclosed at the conference.

The capital market is also dissatisfied with Tesla, and its share price fell by more than 4% during the conference. Overall, it seems that Musk has once again painted a big picture, but just like when Tesla first delivered its first batch of vehicles in China 10 years ago, its moves in intelligence are still leading the way.

▍Self-driving remains a "vision"

For the Cybercab, which was the focus of the conference, the traditional steering wheel and pedals have been eliminated, and passenger and vehicle commands are exchanged solely through the central control screen inside the vehicle.

Musk stated at the conference that the Cybercab will be equipped with AI 5 computing hardware. According to previous information, AI 5 will use a 4nm process, which is expected to offer a five-fold improvement in energy efficiency and a ten-fold increase in computing power compared to the latest HW 4.0. Tesla provided more details in an article on X, announcing that the Robotaxi service will not charge driver fees, and that fully autonomous vehicles will use only cameras rather than radar or lidar equipment.

According to Musk's plan, Tesla will introduce fully autonomous driving versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in California and Texas next year, while the Cybercab is scheduled to go into production by 2027. However, he also mentioned that he is optimistic about the timeline, but product delivery times often exceed initial estimates. He also stated that the Cybercab will be available for purchase at an estimated price of less than $30,000.

According to Tesla's calculations, the operating cost of the Cybercab could potentially drop to about 20 cents per mile (approximately 0.9 yuan/km) over time, while the current average cost of a bus ride in U.S. cities is $1 per mile. In China, the pioneering autonomous taxi service Luobotukuai charges a minimum of 1.6 yuan and a maximum of 1.98 yuan per km in Wuhan, but after deducting discounts and subsidies, the original price ranges from a minimum of 4.6 yuan to a maximum of 6.7 yuan per km. The daily operating cost per vehicle is approximately 370 yuan.

Another new product unveiled at the conference was the Robovan (autonomous driving multipurpose vehicle), a larger vehicle than the Model Y that can carry up to 20 people at a time. It can be used for both commercial and private travel, as well as for school buses or cargo transportation. Musk expects it to reduce transportation costs to 5-10 cents per mile (approximately 0.2-0.4 yuan/km).

Musk also heavily promoted the humanoid robot Optimus, which he expects to sell for between $28,000 and $30,000, but did not disclose a specific launch date for the robot.

Dennis Dick, a Triple D Trading stock trader, said, "Everything looks cool, but there's not much in terms of timelines. As a shareholder, I'm very disappointed. I think the market needs clearer timelines. I think he didn't say much and didn't provide much information."

▍Is future regulation "optimistic"?

Apart from technological and timeline uncertainties, the Cybercab also faces significant regulatory challenges. The safety of autonomous driving technology has always been a focus of public concern and a key factor in regulatory approvals.

During a previous earnings call, Musk confidently stated, "We hope to adopt a universal solution that is applicable to all countries and regions worldwide, and even to other planets." However, when faced with regulatory issues, he appeared concerned: "As long as we can prove its safety, or at least that it is far safer than humans, regulatory authorities will support it. If we can provide billions of miles of test data proving that FSD is safer than human drivers in unsupervised situations in the future, no regulatory authority will block this technology."

As long as Tesla can prove that its autonomous driving system is safer than human drivers, regulatory authorities will approve it. However, the definitions of "safer" and how to collect and evaluate sufficient data remain unresolved issues.

According to Musk, FSD will achieve unsupervised full self-driving capability in Texas and California next year. However, Musk had previously expected the supervised version of FSD to be approved in the Chinese market by the end of this year, but there was no mention of this at the conference, which is currently not optimistic.

It is worth noting, however, that the Chinese market is already open to Robotaxi, but its popularity will not happen overnight. Ensuring the safe and reliable operation of Robotaxi in complex road conditions and responding to emergencies require extensive testing and validation.

▍Collective response from domestic brands

Just a day before the Tesla conference, XPeng Motors unveiled the world's first AI car at its global premiere of the XPeng P7+. He Xiaopeng, Chairman and CEO of XPeng Motors, said that the car comes standard with dual Orin-X chips and the latest AI Hawk Vision intelligent driving solution. He also shared the differences between Robotaxi and Tesla, stating, "We will focus on the Robotaxi product itself, not intervening in operations, and focus on improving the parking and driving capabilities of Robotaxi scenarios, customizing interior and exterior scenes to enhance passenger experience, and strengthening safety redundancy."

Luobotukuai, which has completed over 7 million rides, is expanding globally, communicating deeply with multiple international companies, and may test and deploy autonomous taxis in places like Singapore and the Middle East. Luobotukuai officials told the media that they plan to release version 10.0 of the Apollo autonomous driving open platform, which is "designed specifically for global users."

Since its establishment, Huawei's Intelligent Automobile Solutions BU has invested over 30 billion yuan in R&D, with a research and development team of 7,000 people. Xiaomi's intelligent driving team has also recently completed a new round of organizational restructuring, merging the existing "Perception" and "Planning and Control" departments into an "End-to-End Algorithm and Function Department," which is primarily responsible for the development of mass production solutions, with a target delivery date of end-to-end intelligent driving by 2024.

Industry insiders also believe that the competition for intelligent new energy vehicles has already begun.

While Tesla's conference may have seemed like "pie in the sky," the cutting-edge concepts it presented have still garnered recognition from many professionals in the industry. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, told Auto Insight that Tesla's new product launch once again demonstrated the company's leadership in autonomous driving technology. He believes that Tesla's introduction of autonomous taxis represents a new breakthrough in the development of intelligent AI, indicating that smart cars will replace traditional fuel vehicles, and that China and the United States will lead global developments in the field of smart electric vehicles. He emphasized China's advantages in the development of intelligent electrification and called on traditional automakers in the United States and Europe to accelerate their transition to new energy sources and jointly promote the electrification of the market.

Typesetting by Yang Shuo