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Tesla's Cybercab model has officially debuted, and Musk hopes to inject a shot in the arm into Tesla's next performance through this model. However, based on information disclosed at the launch event, it appears that Tesla still has a long way to go in autonomous driving technology.

Produced by | Heyan Yueche Studio

Written by | Zhang Dachuan

Edited by | Heyan Studio

Total word count: 2494

Reading time: 4 minutes

On October 11, at Tesla's highly anticipated "We, Robot" event, the Robotaxi model, named Cybercab, made its debut. However, Tesla's performance on U.S. stock markets was not optimistic, with a closing price of $217.8, an 8.78% decline, and a single-day evaporation of $67 billion in market value, suggesting a challenging road ahead for Cybercab.

△Cybercab is a key player for Tesla, but investors are currently skeptical

CyberCab's Prospects Are "Gilded"

Prior to the unveiling of CyberCab, it was widely believed that Tesla's next strategic model would be an affordable electric vehicle priced at $25,000. However, instead of this anticipated model, Tesla surprised everyone with the launch of CyberCab, equipped with FSD technology. As seen in the event, CyberCab lacks a steering wheel and pedals, indicating its L5 level of autonomous driving capability, as even a safety driver onboard would not be able to intervene in driving operations.

△Without a steering wheel and pedals, CyberCab represents a high-level intelligent driving vehicle

According to Tesla's projections, after mass production in 2027, the cost of CyberCab will be less than $30,000, with a travel cost of approximately $0.20 per mile, compared to the current cost of approximately $1 per mile for ride-hailing services in the US. This could significantly disrupt the expensive taxi industry in Europe and the US, similar to the impact of Uber, but potentially even more significant. The livelihoods of those hoping to become Uber drivers may also be affected. Musk envisions individuals investing in CyberCab and operating them to generate continuous revenue. Whether this vision becomes reality remains to be seen, as Tesla plans to introduce fully unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year.

Can Cybercab Succeed?

According to Musk, Cybercab production will begin in 2026, with mass production in 2027. From this perspective, the fully autonomous driving technology on Cybercab is still not mature.

△The hurried launch of CyberCab was partly to boost market and investor confidence in Tesla

The urgency behind the launch of Cybercab is tied to Tesla's current predicament. In the second quarter, while Tesla's revenue grew, its net income declined by 45.32% year-over-year to $1.478 billion. The previously rapid growth in demand for electric vehicles has slowed globally, and automakers like Mercedes-Benz, Volvo, Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen have adjusted their electric vehicle strategies, focusing on hybrid models, particularly plug-in hybrids. With Tesla committed to an all-electric strategy, the launch of Cybercab, a game-changer, is its only option to boost share prices and investor confidence amidst stagnant electric vehicle sales growth.

Will FSD Be Mature in Two Years?

Few would dare guarantee Tesla's readiness for FSD in two years. While Tesla's end-to-end model FSD V12 has made significant progress, high-level autonomous driving requires extensive road scene data accumulation for continuous training and algorithm optimization. Due to stricter personal information protection and surveying and mapping laws in China, Tesla's FSD system is less mature here compared to the US market. The introduction of FSD in China is still pending, and Tesla needs to establish a strong autonomous driving model training and optimization team domestically to ensure its success. This will take time.

△Will Tesla's FSD truly commercialize in China?

It's worth noting that Tesla faces significant challenges and competition in high-level autonomous driving and Robotaxi, both domestically and internationally.

△Cruise's operations demonstrate the challenges of Robotaxi commercialization

In the US, General Motors' Cruise and Google's Waymo have commenced commercial operations in Phoenix, while in China, Baidu's Apollo GO has garnered attention. Local automakers like Huawei, XPeng, NIO, Lixiang, Geely, and SAIC have invested heavily in high-level intelligent driving and achieved notable results. The accumulation of domestic road scene data gives these automakers the capital to compete with Tesla on their home turf. The challenges faced by early Robotaxi operations, as seen with Apollo GO and Cruise, differ from those encountered by Tesla's FSD, raising questions about FSD's ability to deliver a game-changing autonomous driving experience.

Robovan Holds Greater Promise

Compared to CyberCab, Robovan, a driverless cargo vehicle, holds greater promise.

△Robovan, with a relatively lower technical threshold, holds great promise

On one hand, cargo vehicles tend to follow more fixed routes, facilitating repeated testing and experience accumulation for autonomous driving controllers. On the other hand, cargo vehicles have no specific requirements for speed or ride comfort, allowing automakers to adjust acceleration and braking frequencies as needed without concern for passenger comfort or motion sickness. Furthermore, the high cost of truck drivers in Europe and the US, coupled with strict work hour regulations, drives up logistics costs. Autonomous driving technology in cargo transport could significantly reduce these costs and improve efficiency. Therefore, Tesla may find greater success focusing on Robovan rather than pushing for CyberCab's market launch.

Commentary

Musk has painted an exciting picture, but the underwhelming debut of CyberCab leaves much to be desired. Tesla's vague explanations of autonomous driving technology details fail to instill confidence in fans and investors about the imminent arrival of the autonomous driving era in 2027. Perhaps Musk has once again painted a grand vision, leaving us hopeful for the future. Only time will tell how FSD evolves by 2026 and 2027, and whether it truly becomes a game-changer for the global automotive industry.

(This article is originally written by Heyan Yueche and cannot be reprinted without authorization)