Not long ago, Tesla's self-driving taxi launch event sparked heated debate in the market. Led by Tesla, the market has seen continuous actions. Pony.ai submitted its listing application to Nasdaq, aiming to become the "world's first Robotaxi stock." WeRide released its new Robotaxi mass production model, the GXR. How close is Robotaxi to becoming a reality under these circumstances?

I. Continuous Major Moves in the Robotaxi Market

According to a report by The Paper, Tesla officially unveiled its Robotaxi, named Cybercab, at its "We, Robot" event not long ago. Elon Musk stated that Robotaxi is personalized public transportation that can significantly reduce the average travel cost. Currently, travel costs are still relatively high, and he expects the travel cost of the Cybercab to drop to around $0.20 per mile in the future. The vehicle cost will be less than $30,000.

Regarding the launch timeline, he predicted that vehicle production will begin in 2026, with mass production starting in 2027.

Similarly, there have been numerous Robotaxi-related announcements lately. Following Tesla's event, WeRide unveiled its new-generation Robotaxi, the GXR, jointly developed with Geely Remote. Based on an open mobile travel space design concept, this model is arguably the most spacious and comfortable mass-produced Robotaxi in the world. As a mass-produced Robotaxi, WeRide GXR leverages the company's proprietary full-scenario L4 autonomous driving hardware and software system, enabling industry-leading L4 autonomous driving capabilities on public roads. It can handle complex scenarios such as morning and evening rush hours, mixed traffic, and nighttime highway driving with ease. As a mass-produced model, the GXR is ready for market deployment. WeRide has accumulated over 1,800 days of public operation experience and is currently operating in five cities worldwide: Guangzhou, Beijing, Abu Dhabi, Nanjing, and Erdos.

Furthermore, Pony.ai recently submitted its IPO prospectus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "PONY." Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, and Huatai Securities are serving as the lead underwriters. According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's overseas listing filing, Pony.ai plans to issue up to 98,149,500 ordinary shares. If successful, Pony.ai could become the "world's first Robotaxi stock."

Founded in 2016, Pony.ai provides autonomous driving technologies and solutions for the transportation and logistics sectors globally. It develops "virtual driver" technologies applicable to various vehicle types and scenarios, focusing on autonomous mobility services (Robotaxi), autonomous trucks (Robotruck), and passenger vehicle intelligence (POV).

II. How Close is Robotaxi to Reality?

Recently, Robotaxi has frequently trended on social media, leading many to wonder about its future prospects and whether its popularity will accelerate.

Firstly, while Robotaxi is gaining popularity, it is not a new concept. Those familiar with Robotaxi know that it is not a novelty. As early as 2018, Waymo, Google's autonomous driving subsidiary, launched Waymo One, a paid self-driving taxi service, pioneering the commercialization of autonomous driving technology globally. This event was groundbreaking in the autonomous driving field, demonstrating the potential for Robotaxi to move from concept to reality. However, for several years afterward, Robotaxi remained in a relatively low-key development phase until recently.

In China, various autonomous driving companies have been exploring and advancing Robotaxi development. Companies like Luobokuai have already deployed their services and achieved remarkable results.

Currently, Robotaxi faces numerous challenges. Autonomous driving demands exceptional technological prowess, and the complexity of road conditions poses significant hurdles for its development in the taxi market. The intricate traffic environment, including various road conditions, weather, and other unpredictable traffic participants, poses severe tests for autonomous driving systems' perception, decision-making, and control capabilities. For instance, severe weather like heavy rain or snow can impair sensor performance, compromising the system's ability to accurately perceive the surroundings. Moreover, differing road rules and driving habits across regions necessitate robust adaptability from autonomous driving systems.

Additionally, Robotaxi confronts ethical and legal issues. In the event of an accident during autonomous driving, who bears responsibility? The vehicle manufacturer, autonomous driving technology provider, or passenger? This is a matter that countries worldwide must carefully consider. Currently, global legal frameworks for autonomous driving are still evolving, which to some extent constrains Robotaxi's rapid development.

Secondly, Robotaxi is entering a critical stage of technological breakthrough. Recent announcements from Tesla, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Luobokuai demonstrate that after years of development, Robotaxi is undergoing a qualitative transformation. Economically, the market supply of any product should conform to the law of economies of scale, where average costs decrease as production volume increases within a certain range.

For Robotaxi, operators are striving to achieve economies of scale by deploying 1,000 vehicles per city. This is the crux of current Robotaxi development. When a city has 1,000 operating Robotaxis, economies of scale become feasible. On the operational side, vehicle procurement, maintenance, and management costs decrease with increased scale. For instance, bulk vehicle purchases can secure more favorable prices from suppliers, reducing procurement costs.

Thirdly, what does the future hold for Robotaxi? In the long run, autonomous Robotaxi will gradually replace traditional taxis and ride-hailing services. While they may coexist for many years, the trend towards autonomous driving is inevitable. With continuous technological advancements and policy support, Robotaxi will embrace broader development prospects.

Firstly, the continuous development and refinement of autonomous driving technologies will enhance Robotaxi's safety and reliability. Advances in sensor technology, AI algorithms, and computing platforms will enable autonomous driving systems to better adapt to complex traffic environments, improving driving safety and stability. This will position Robotaxi as a more reliable and secure mode of transportation.

Secondly, optimized policy environments will provide robust support for Robotaxi commercialization. Governments worldwide are actively promoting autonomous driving technology by formulating and improving relevant laws and regulations to provide a legal framework for Robotaxi commercialization. Governments are also increasing investment and funding for autonomous driving research and development, reflecting a supportive stance towards the Robotaxi model, as evidenced by numerous pilot programs in China.

Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that Robotaxi, as a crucial application of autonomous driving technology, is undergoing a qualitative transformation. The future of Robotaxi is likely to see rapid popularization, potentially becoming a primary mode of transportation. It is believed that in the near future, we will usher in an era of autonomous driving, where travel becomes effortless, and autonomous driving will profoundly transform our lives.

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