When Tesla began manufacturing cars on the other side of the Pacific Ocean and successfully launched the Model series, it became the brightest star in the global auto industry.

This wave of new energy vehicles then reached the Chinese market, prompting a flurry of domestic automakers to emerge. Many of these automakers are cross-industry entrants, including internet companies and former automotive veterans going solo...

Here's an image to show you how lively the newcomers were back then. Each logo in the image below represents a brand.

It was truly a time of fierce competition and diverse developments, with everyone aspiring to become China's Tesla. Data shows that in 2018, there were 487 Chinese automotive brands, including the newcomers.

However, just a few years later, how many logos from that image remain? In my opinion, there are only 4+1 left.

The '4' refers to NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, while the '+1' is Nezha.

Why do I list Nezha separately as '+1' instead of just five companies? The reason is that NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor are still operating healthily with good sales. However, there have been many rumors about Nezha recently, suggesting that its situation may not be optimistic, so I'm being cautious by listing it separately.

Take a look at the 47th-week sales chart for newcomers released by Li Auto a few days ago. You can see that Nezha didn't even make it into the top 10. Besides NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, almost all other first-generation newcomers have disappeared.

Why is this happening? Of course, it's because the competition is too fierce. Only those with money and core competitiveness can survive.

Speaking of money, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto are all publicly listed companies, which naturally gives them broader access to funding. Other companies that haven't gone public have relatively limited funding options.

Secondly, the automakers that have survived are clearly more competitive. NIO's battery swapping, XPeng's technological appeal, Li Auto's family-oriented user mindset and extended-range capabilities, and Leapmotor's full-stack in-house research and development, with self-made core components accounting for 60% of the vehicle's cost, all make their products attractive to customers. Leapmotor cars are therefore affordable and cost-effective.

Moreover, those who have survived were clearly not originally from the auto industry. The founders of NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor all come from outside the auto industry, primarily from the internet sector.

Times have changed. Traditional auto industry methods cannot be applied to new energy vehicles. Instead, outsiders from the internet sector understand users and trends better, so their cars are more in line with current user preferences.

According to Yu Chengdong and Lei Jun, the entire automotive market may eventually concentrate in the hands of three to five companies, with a high degree of market share concentration. This means it will become increasingly difficult for other small automakers to survive.

Currently, there are still over 100 automotive brands in China. You can imagine how fierce the competition will be in the future. It's unclear how many will fall and which ones will survive.

And among these newcomers, whether first-generation or later, who will come out on top? No one can say for sure until the very end.