On October 12, in Wuxi High-Tech Zone, Shenlan Space unveiled its independently developed 5-meter-diameter stainless steel co-bottom storage tank. This core component, dubbed the "backbone" of the rocket, set a record for large-scale stainless steel tank development in China's commercial spaceflight sector. It also propelled the "Nebula-2," a liquid-fueled, reusable rocket with a 25-ton near-Earth orbit payload capacity—the largest among domestic commercial rockets—into an intensive engineering development phase. The storage tank is an indispensable part of rocket mass production, and its rollout holds significance akin to the first integrated die-cast car body in an automotive factory.

Three months earlier, on July 10, the Long March 10B completed the world's first sea-based net recovery in the Yellow Sea, filling a gap in China's ability to "bring rockets home"—a feat previously achieved only by the United States. SpaceX, by repeatedly reusing its first-stage boosters, has slashed the Falcon 9's orbital launch costs to around $2,000 per kilogram, 40-50% cheaper than traditional rockets. After more than half a century of "single-use business"—where rocket bodies were scrapped after each launch, and each ignition burned nearly a building's worth of capital—the cost ledger is being rewritten line by line. Capital markets, however, seem to have shorter memories. In early 2024, China Satcom's two consecutive daily trading limit-downs poured cold water on the red-hot satellite internet rally; by late September, news of Starship's first orbital flight and Blue Arrow's network deployment contracts briefly reignited the sector; yet by mid-October, most core stocks had surrendered their gains, with prices retreating to pre-rally levels. While stock prices traced a circle, the industry drew an upward trajectory—that same autumn, launch schedules grew denser, reusable models rolled off production lines, and constellation orders began flowing to private rocket firms. The real divergence now points elsewhere: either the market is right, and the industry's progress lacks substance, or pricing is wrong, and a cost-curve-driven revaluation has yet to begin. The answer lies in three evidence chains: launch frequency, reuse tests, and order flows.

01. Rewriting the Cost Ledger: Launches Shift from Rare Rituals to Production Schedules

The simplest yardstick for a turning point is frequency. On August 4 and August 16, Groups 23 and 24 of the Satnet low-Earth orbit satellites lifted off 12 days apart, with the Long March series' 663rd flight accelerating constellation deployment from "a few launches per year" to "two per month." In mid-to-early June, China conducted at least five launch missions, with the Qianfan constellation surpassing 200 in-orbit satellites by June 5. A critical detail: since 2026, ~85.7% of Satnet's seven launches have occurred at Hainan's commercial spaceport—where rocket assembly, satellite integration, and launch pads coexist in one park, minimizing transportation and turnover costs. This "local closed loop " (closed-loop) approach sends a clear signal: high-frequency launches have transitioned from technical challenges to production scheduling issues.

The confidence behind this frequency surge stems from reusable technology—the cost lifeline. In traditional expendable rockets, booster manufacturing accounts for ~70% of total costs; reuse technology transforms "consumables" into "depreciable assets." This year has seen a flurry of breakthroughs: the Blue Arrow 3 completed China's first orbital-class rocket landing via legged Land recycling (ground recovery); the Zhinüshen 1 filled the 5-7-ton reusable payload gap, forming a capacity echelon ( echelon , tiered structure) with the Blue Arrow 3 and Long March 6A; among private firms, Shenlan Space secured nearly RMB 2 billion in funding in September, with its 25-ton near-Earth orbit "Nebula-2" rocket ranking among China's top commercial launchers. The formation of this capacity echelon means constellation operators can now "shop" rockets from a "shelf" instead of waiting in line for a single model.

Order flows provide harder evidence. On September 15, the Blue Arrow 2 improved variant (Yaoki-7) delivered 10 Qianfan polar-orbiting satellites into orbit—marking the first time a Chinese private commercial rocket undertook a large constellation deployment mission. National constellation launch contracts are now flowing to commercial rocket firms, putting the term "commercial spaceflight" to its first credibility test. CITIC Construction Investment predicts accelerated echelon formation: the Hyperbola-3 and Yuanxingzhe-1 will conduct maiden flights this year, while the Blue Arrow 3 will test reused boosters within six months. Only when reuse succeeds will the "recovery-reuse-order" commercial closed loop (closed loop) truly close, slashing launch costs and rewriting constellation deployment's unit economics, thereby paving the path for low-Earth orbit constellations to shift from national missions to commercial orders.

02. Profit Migration: Real Money Flows from Rockets to Satellite and Ground Networks

Rocket cost reductions merely open the door; the industry's profit pool is migrating toward two ends. CITIC Construction Investment outlines the path: short-term, Intensive verification (intensive validation) of reusable rockets will drive demand for engines, booster structures, landing gear, and grid fins; mid-term, value will shift to satellite mass production, ground terminals, direct-to-phone connectivity, and operational services. In short, excess profits during the "network-building" phase will accrue to satellite components and ground core networks.

Satellite components offer the strongest logic. As low-Earth orbit satellites transition from custom builds to mass production, demand for phased-array T/R chips, star trackers, and aerospace power supplies scales linearly with constellation production schedules. These components also face high technical barriers and clear competitive landscapes. Chengchang Technology's T/R chips account for nearly 100% of its revenue, with its satellite internet phased-array T/R chip project now in mass production and delivery. Tianyin Electromechanical's aerospace IT business contributes ~40% of revenue, with star trackers scaling alongside mass-produced satellites. Diankeland's aerospace power supplies account for 66.2% of revenue. These firms' order rhythms align with constellation launch schedules—Satnet and Qianfan's annual plans to deploy hundreds of satellites directly dictate their earnings granularity.

Ground networks are widely underestimated. For constellations to generate revenue, gateway stations and core networks must first connect celestial pipelines to terrestrial infrastructure. Zhenyou Technology, one of China's few vendors with complete satellite core network solutions, has secured multiple Satnet-related projects. Its satellite core network has completed in-orbit validation, with its private placement project forecasting RMB 797 million in revenue and RMB 103 million in net profit by full production—a projection based on existing contracts and operator demand, offering higher credibility than typical long-term blueprints. Shanghai Hanxun's integrated gateway stations have entered mass production, and its satellite terminals have passed volume-production validation. Some brokers have even switched its valuation method from P/E to a 2027 P/S ratio of 26.28x, raising its target price by nearly 90% in one adjustment. The valuation shift itself signals a trend: as the industry enters a market-share grab, profit statements temporarily cede priority to market dominance.

The sector's colder side remains clear. The Tonghuashun Commercial Spaceflight Concept Index tracks 506 constituents with a blended P/E of ~51x. The plate (sector) has dropped 6.98% in the past month, with core stocks surrendering year-to-date gains and pricing reverting to pre-rally levels. *ST Hangtu, downgraded to B by CCXI and embroiled in a RMB 155 million finance lease lawsuit, serves as a reminder of the real payment collection pressures facing application-end firms. The sector is undergoing a Filter (culling): companies with orders are cashing in on industrial dividends, while those without are merely riding thematic volatility.

Commercial spaceflight is evolving from "single-use fireworks" to "scheduled infrastructure." From the recovery net catching rockets in the Yellow Sea to the storage tank rolling off Wuxi's production line, the industry's valuation anchor is shifting from thematic narratives to cost ledgers. Looking ahead, benefits will likely unfold along the sequence "rocket components → satellite components → ground network equipment → operational applications," with valuation credibility hinging on the density of reused booster tests and constellation orders in the next six months. Bringing rockets home is just the beginning; closing the ledger will determine the outcome.

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