This marks the 1286th original article from 'New Energy Frontier.' Simply click on 'New Energy Frontier' above to follow and star this account. Please note, this article solely reflects the viewpoints of 'New Energy Frontier' and does not constitute investment advice. The author does not operate investment groups, charge for stock tips, or manage client funds.

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Recently, the global landscape seems to be gripped by 'AI anxiety,' with a prevalent fear that AI will disrupt one's industry, and the number of those affected is on the rise, particularly in the software sector.

 01 Awe of AI's Disruptive Potential

There's considerable debate over whether AI, especially large-scale models, will truly consume everything. We've previously discussed this, concluding that there's no need to overanalyze it. However, we must approach new technologies with a sense of awe, neither overestimating their short-term impact nor underestimating their long-term potential. We should proceed with caution, but it's wise to avoid areas that may face disruption.

Setting aside the controversy, examining many industries through the lens of the current market trend that 'large models consume all' leads to vastly different conclusions. This mental exercise is quite valuable.

If the capabilities of large models continue to evolve indefinitely, many software applications may indeed become redundant, and numerous logical frameworks will require readjustment. Initially, when large models emerged, everyone believed that language learning and office software would benefit. However, as large model technology has advanced, the logic has now flipped.

Theoretically, the more the capabilities of large models evolve, the more the existing space for many software applications will be squeezed, if not completely eliminated, and their ecological niches within the industry will shift.

Not only that, but many companies currently considered default access-level enterprises may also undergo significant transformations. This is also a factor contributing to Tencent's recent sharp decline.

It cannot be denied that WeChat holds an absolute access position in China, and social interaction among acquaintances is theoretically one of the hardest areas for AI to disrupt. After all, it's difficult to envision AI chatting on your behalf (this scenario exists for stranger social interactions, but not typically for acquaintances). From this perspective, the market is not betting on WeChat being completely abandoned, but rather that in the event of a significant AI technology boom, WeChat's status as an access point will be greatly diminished.

Although this viewpoint is highly debatable, nothing is absolute. We must still approach new technologies with awe and not blindly trust in WeChat and Tencent!

There's a cognitive misconception here: WeChat's current dominance easily leads people to believe it will always remain strong and serve as an access point.

 02 Shifts in Access Points

Think carefully: What defines an access point?

It's simply a product that many people use and find it hard to part with. Frankly, there's no such thing as a truly 'immutable' access point in this world. It's just that when a good product is used by many people frequently, it becomes what's known as an access point. Behind this is still demand-driven. A product that can better meet user needs than its competitors becomes a widespread access point due to its popularity.

Of course, different products have varying degrees of user stickiness and commercial monetization value, so their access point value naturally differs. E-commerce and social networking products have higher so-called access point value due to their uniqueness.

The world is evolving, and people's needs are changing, so access points will naturally shift. Just like a decade or two ago, QQ was the access point for the 70s, 80s, and 90s generations. Now, unless for work purposes, most people haven't logged into QQ for a long time, and WeChat has become the primary access point.

So, is it possible that with the development of AI technology, a better communication medium will emerge?

Leo is unsure, but we cannot arbitrarily conclude that such technology and products will not emerge. If they do, and if that product is not made by Tencent, Tencent's access point value will be greatly diminished. As mentioned earlier when discussing AI glasses, glasses actually offer a better experience than smartwatches. If technology improves, they could become the best electronic device after smartphones, the true king of wearable devices.

Of course, this is not to make any definitive statements about Tencent. We're just deducing the potential impact of AI technological advancements.

This also explains why the secondary market is not optimistic about the software sector—people really can't clearly see the impact of AI on software, while the hardware side is much clearer. This was elaborated in detail in the article '10 Times Tencent, Just the Beginning, an Unprecedented Opportunity' and will not be expanded upon here.

Another example is consumption, which may seem unrelated to AI but could actually be affected, and possibly significantly. From the current perspective, AI technology benefits corporate managers and those who are already tech elites, potentially widening the wealth gap in society unless the top echelons redistribute benefits, which is not conducive to consumption (of course, AI could also boost production efficiency, and if the top echelons push for benefit redistribution, society could become more affluent and leisurely, benefiting consumption. This is one of the uncertainties in current AI applications, and both inferences seem plausible).

With this perspective, looking at new energy, it appears clear, amiable, and charming...

 03 Unafraid of Disruption, Even Highly Beneficial

There's no need to elaborate on photovoltaics and wind power in the new energy sector. They are energy sources. No matter how advanced AI technology becomes, without electricity, everything is futile. Theoretically, the stronger AI technology becomes, the more determined and frenzied the global pursuit of it will be, increasing the demand for energy. Combined with the global green energy transition and political correctness, the demand for new energy will also surge.

Currently, wind and solar power generation account for at most around 10% of the global energy structure. From this perspective, as long as AI technology continues to advance significantly, there's no need to worry too much about the demand for new energy.

In fact, not to mention other developing countries, many European and American countries have outdated power grids that cannot support their subsequent AI technology ambitions. Investing in power infrastructure and increasing new energy investments is a certain trend.

From this perspective, the oversupply of new energy represented by wind and solar can only be a phased oversupply. Especially with technological upgrades and iterations gradually advancing towards an era of parity between photovoltaics and energy storage, there will be even more room for growth in the demand for new energy.

Now, looking at new energy vehicles, they also benefit from AI technology. Autonomous driving is one of the most important applications of AI technology, and it is a certain beneficiary compared to other AI applications. Once new energy vehicles enter the era of autonomous driving, their business models will undergo earth-shaking transformations. This has been discussed multiple times in previous articles tracking Tesla, such as 'Seriously Misjudged, Has Bottomed Out, Poised to Become the Most Unique Global Leader in History,' so I won't elaborate further here.

From the perspective of industry technological development, by 2026, the world is expected to enter L4 or even L5 autonomous driving, which is the true commercial rollout phase of autonomous driving. Technologically, it is basically ready. The next step mainly depends on policy support from countries worldwide. No matter how pessimistic one is, it is basically a certain historical trend that humans will enter the era of autonomous driving before 2030.

Subsequently, commercial explorations around autonomous driving, such as user subscription models and robotaxis, will gradually begin. Autonomous driving will also become one of the most important links in AI technology achieving commercial closure. Not to mention that AI technology will inherently promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the production and operation of the new energy industry.

After clarifying these thoughts and looking back at new energy, is there no need to be pessimistic? Can we even feel more optimistic?

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