If a company:

Simultaneously controls the world's largest satellite internet system;

Owns the world's most powerful commercial rocket capabilities;

Is building an AI super data center;

And aims to deploy data centers in space, establish a lunar economy, and create a Mars colonization system;

How should its valuation be calculated? This is no longer a question traditional investment institutions can answer.

Recently, as SpaceX officially filed for its IPO, with market expectations of financing reaching $80 billion and a valuation hitting $1.75–2 trillion, global capital markets are finally confronting a serious question:

SpaceX may no longer be just an 'aerospace company.' It more closely resembles a convergence of future global energy, communications, AI, and space infrastructure.

And this may be why it is poised to become the largest IPO in history.

01┃ SpaceX: One of the World's Most Valuable Pre-IPO Companies

In recent years, SpaceX's valuation growth has far exceeded the scope of traditional primary market companies.

By the end of 2025, the company's secondary market valuation had reached approximately $800 billion. Subsequently, with Starlink's growth, rising expectations for AI infrastructure, and progress toward an IPO, the market's valuation of SpaceX further surged to the $1.25–1.75 trillion range.

According to the latest IPO filings and media reports, SpaceX's IPO financing could reach around $80 billion, far surpassing the previous global IPO record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.

If it goes public at this scale, it is likely to become:

The largest tech IPO in human history.

More importantly, it is no longer a startup reliant on financing to survive.

According to SpaceX's latest public filings, the company's 2025 revenue reached approximately $18.67 billion, including:

Starlink (Connectivity) revenue of about $11.4 billion;

Rocket and launch services revenue of about $4.1 billion;

AI business revenue of about $3.2 billion.

This means SpaceX has begun transitioning from a 'high-growth tech story' to a platform company with genuine global cash flow capabilities. But what truly prompts the market to reevaluate SpaceX is not just revenue growth. It is the growing realization among investors that the company simultaneously possesses:

Profound technological moats;

Increasingly strong cash flow capabilities;

Platform-like infrastructure attributes;

And a long-term narrative with an extremely high ceiling.

Having all four of these elements in a single pre-IPO company is exceedingly rare in global primary markets. What truly excites capital markets is that SpaceX already holds three nearly irreplicable cards.

02┃ Card One: Reusable Rockets Are Turning 'Spaceflight' into Infrastructure

For decades, the aerospace industry's biggest challenge has been prohibitively high launch costs. Traditional rockets are nearly all 'disposable,' with each launch burning tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars in costs. What SpaceX has truly transformed is its first large-scale validation that rockets can be reused like aircraft.

Today, Falcon 9 has become one of the world's most mature reusable rocket systems, with single-launch costs compressed below $30 million—far lower than traditional aerospace systems. But more critically, Falcon 9 may just be the beginning. If Starship achieves stable reuse by 2025–2026, the entire aerospace industry's cost structure could shift by another order of magnitude. This means 'access to space' is transitioning from a luxury of the past into an infrastructure capability.

Once transport capacity becomes infrastructure, SpaceX's moat will deepen further, as newcomers must replicate not just the technology itself but also: launch frequency, manufacturing systems, supply chains, global operational capabilities, data accumulation, and over a decade of engineering team experience. According to independent agency statistics, SpaceX completed approximately 85% of global commercial launch missions in 2025, with launch capacity even surpassing most national aerospace systems.

To some extent, the barriers SpaceX has established in aerospace are beginning to resemble Tesla's early manufacturing and engineering advantages in the electric vehicle industry.

03┃ Card Two: Starlink Is Becoming a True Cash Flow Machine

Many underestimate SpaceX because they still focus solely on rockets. But today, the core driver of SpaceX's financial transformation is actually Starlink. The market has long treated Starlink as a 'future story,' but it is now evolving into a high-growth cash flow business in reality.

Currently, Starlink has surpassed 4 million users, with average revenue per user stabilizing above $100. Simultaneously, it is rapidly penetrating:

U.S. Department of Defense;

European telecommunications operators;

Aviation and maritime networks;

Broadband for remote regions;

Emergency communications;

Sovereign-grade network infrastructure.

Especially amid rapid global geopolitical shifts and AI infrastructure development, more nations are recognizing the importance of independent communication networks. Starlink essentially provides not just 'satellite WiFi' but resembles next-generation global communications infrastructure.

This is why more institutions are beginning to value Starlink separately. Commercially, it increasingly resembles a 'space-based operator + global communications platform.'

According to the latest IPO filings, Starlink's Connectivity business is SpaceX's only consistently profitable segment, achieving approximately $1.2 billion in operating profit in Q1 2025. Market consensus expects Starlink to contribute over 70% of total revenue by 2026. In other words, SpaceX increasingly resembles a global-scale communications infrastructure platform.

04┃ Card Three: AI, Space Data Centers, and 'Civilization-Level Narratives'

One of SpaceX's most underestimated aspects is its deepening involvement in AI infrastructure. Over the past year, SpaceX has completed its integration with xAI. According to IPO filings:

The AI business alone accounted for approximately $12.7 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, primarily for building large-scale data centers and AI infrastructure.

Meanwhile, SpaceX's filings explicitly mention for the first time:

Orbital AI compute satellites;

Space data centers;

Lunar economy;

Mars transportation system;

And even:

'Establishing a continuously expanding human presence in space.'

To many, these sound like science fiction. But what capital markets truly focus on is not immediate realizability but the potential market size if even parts succeed. Fundamentally, SpaceX is no longer just doing 'aerospace.' It is attempting to build:

Next-generation energy systems;

Next-generation communications systems;

Next-generation AI infrastructure;

And next-generation space economic systems.

This 'civilization-level narrative' is something most global tech companies lack entirely.

05┃ Why Are Capital Markets So Desperately Chasing SpaceX?

Recent SpaceX funding rounds have been 'oversubscribed' almost instantly. We see traditional VCs, U.S. stock FOFs, global family offices, and even Middle Eastern sovereign funds competing for allocations via secondary markets, SPVs, and employee equity pools. The reason is simple: SpaceX simultaneously satisfies the three rarest conditions in primary markets:

First, profound technological barriers.

Second, genuine cash flow generation already underway.

Third, a long-term narrative with an extremely high ceiling.

And 'Mars' is precisely that ultimate narrative.

Because once markets believe SpaceX could truly become the core gateway to future human space infrastructure, its valuation logic transcends simple PE or PS multiples. It becomes a:

Future civilization-level infrastructure asset.

06┃ Why Could This IPO Be a Historic Event?

The most significant implication of SpaceX's IPO may not be the financing itself but that it marks the first time global public markets are formally pricing 'future civilization infrastructure.'

According to the latest disclosures, SpaceX could go public as early as June, with the ticker symbol expected to be 'SPCX.' What truly shocks the market is not the IPO itself but the ambition revealed in the filing.

In over 270 pages, 'Mars' is mentioned more than 60 times. The board has even tied Elon Musk's long-term incentives to two goals:

SpaceX reaching a $7.5 trillion market cap;

Establishing a permanent Mars colony with 1 million inhabitants.

Meanwhile, the filings disclose for the first time that SpaceX is exploring deploying orbital AI compute satellites as early as 2028—essentially:

Placing AI data centers directly in space.

To some extent, SpaceX is no longer just a 'commercial company.' It resembles a super-infrastructure experiment for the next few decades. Of course, this entails enormous risks.

SpaceX remains in a high capital-expenditure phase overall. In 2025, the company reported a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion; Q1 2026 saw another $4.3 billion loss.

Key factors include:

Starship's ongoing financial burn;

Massive capital expenditures for xAI data centers;

AI business still unprofitable;

Space data centers, Mars transportation systems, and other projects remain 'unproven technologies.'

Even SpaceX admits in its filings that many goals may never achieve commercialization. But this is precisely what drives capital markets wild. For many long-term investors, they are not just buying today's profits but the right to choose humanity's infrastructure direction for the next 20–30 years.

And globally, the company truly occupying the intersection of:

Aerospace;

AI;

Communications;

Energy;

Space infrastructure;

May be only one: SpaceX.

Beta Fund is an early-stage investment institution deeply rooted in Silicon Valley, focusing on the most groundbreaking innovation directions in the AI era, including Agentic AI, AI Native Systems, and AI-driven vertical applications.

We continuously monitor the world's most cutting-edge AI and tech investment opportunities and have secured exclusive investment allocations for the next funding rounds of multiple star projects, including:

SpaceX

Netlify

Prometheus Biosciences

Anduril Industries

Xiaohongshu

StepFun

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Author's Note: Personal views only.