By 2026, global capital has firmly set its sights on the semiconductor sector: major enterprises are scrambling for chips, while chips, in turn, are vying for upstream materials. Although some investors harbor concerns about a potential "bubble," the entire industry chain is echoing with cries of "shortage" and "price surges."

So, what's the real story? Can the "chip" phenomenon continue to dazzle? Are there any overlooked gems on this red-hot track?

Let's delve into the details one by one today.

Bubble or Just a Shortage?

Presently, numerous investors are drawing parallels between the current semiconductor landscape and the 2000 Internet bubble, fearing that technology sector valuations have soared too high. However, let's maintain our composure and conduct a thorough analysis across three key dimensions: industry fundamentals, capital expenditures, and corporate profits. We posit that the semiconductor industry lacks the foundation for a bubble because "supply and demand dictate all." The crux of the matter lies in the rapid evolution of AI capabilities, which has triggered a sustained, exponential surge in demand, coupled with a widening global capacity gap.

Exponential Rise in Tokens, Soaring Demand for Computing Power Hardware

The widespread integration of AI agents, exemplified by OpenClaw, has led to a massive consumption of tokens. Public data reveals that the average daily token calls in China surpassed 140 trillion in March 2026, marking a more than thousandfold increase over two years. Furthermore, to add to the fervor: the token consumption per task by AI agents is several dozen times that of traditional conversational models. Mizuho estimates that agents will drive an additional 9%-13% increase in global DRAM demand.

In contrast to human consumption of computing power, agents necessitate continuous, long-context storage, and multi-round reasoning. This transcends short-term model training, resulting in a 24/7 sustained demand for computing power and hardware support. This relentless demand has not only fueled GPUs but has also swiftly extended to CPUs, HBM, optical modules, advanced packaging, and the entire semiconductor equipment chain.

How Severe is the Shortage?

Let's examine the reality: the supply capacity of semiconductors is inherently constrained by multiple rigid factors. For instance, the construction cycle for advanced wafer fabs spans 3-5 years, with a single 2nm factory costing upwards of $25 billion. HBM requires specialized stacking and bonding processes, making expansion arduous. Moreover, overseas memory manufacturers have proactively reduced consumer chip capacity to prioritize AI server product supply.

Despite continuous increases in capital expenditures by global majors, the deployment of new capacity will still lag by 2-3 years. Chips related to computing power, memory, and equipment will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026-2027.

Domestically, even with large-scale IPO financing and expansion by Changxin and Changxin Storage, the global capacity gap cannot be bridged in the near term.

This implies that not only is the short-term shortage significant, but the industry will also grapple with long-term sustainability challenges such as price hikes, high bargaining power, and high-profit cycles.

From a valuation standpoint, international leading companies pale in comparison to the 2000 Internet bubble period when U.S. tech stocks averaged 67x PE. Currently, global leading tech companies average only 32x PE. Semiconductor leaders continue to generate profits, and cloud providers also possess ample cash flow to support capital expenditures in the semiconductor hardware sector.

Domestically, the latest 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly calls for extraordinary breakthroughs in the integrated circuit sector. With our national innovation mechanism and a vast domestic application market, domestic semiconductors are shielded by a "policy + industry" dual safety net, and the industry's rapid development has only just commenced.

An "Overlooked" Index (932066) in the Booming Semiconductor Sector

Recently, we stumbled upon an "overlooked" index in the booming semiconductor sector: the CSI Semiconductor Industry Select Index (Code: 932066), which is currently tracked by just one fund.

Selection Logic: Rigorous Screening of Industry Leaders

The index meticulously screens 50 high-quality stocks from the entire semiconductor market, establishing a multi-tiered screening mechanism: first, it excludes companies ranked in the bottom 20% for ESG governance; second, it comprehensively scores and weights based on four major indicators: average daily market cap, ROE, R&D investment, and net profit growth, naturally selecting high R&D, high-profit, and industry leaders:

Balanced Portfolio Across the Industry Chain, Encompassing Upstream and Midstream Segments

The index's 100% holdings are concentrated on the semiconductor sector, with no cross-industry diversification. The segment weights are highly aligned with the current AI boom's focal points:

Integrated circuits (chip design, manufacturing) account for approximately 70%, while semiconductor equipment + materials combined constitute nearly 30%. The top ten weighted stocks account for about 64%, focusing on core leaders in various segments and encompassing opportunities across the entire industry chain, including computing power chips, advanced manufacturing, storage devices, and electronic materials.

It's arduous for ordinary investors to cover the myriad semiconductor segments and thousands of listed companies with their limited energy and expertise.

For instance, as depicted in the figure below, the expansion of HBM production alone involves numerous upstream and downstream equipment, as well as in-depth analysis and research on multiple companies.

Therefore, by tracking the ETF of this index, investors can swiftly gain exposure to the entire industry chain, including upstream equipment materials, midstream manufacturing, and downstream computing power chips, saving on individual stock selection and portfolio adjustment costs, and efficiently capitalizing on the long-term allocation value of this semiconductor supercycle.

Conclusion

The "chip" phenomenon is not a fleeting trend. AI agents have ushered in an exponential surge in computing power demand, and the global capacity gap is challenging to bridge in the short term. Coupled with the long-term support of the 15th Five-Year Plan policies, the semiconductor industry's boom cycle still has ample room to flourish.

Risk Warning: The market is fraught with risks, and investment should be approached with caution.