Author | Lao Mian Dexin

Editor | Dexin

On October 11, Beijing time, Tesla unveiled its highly anticipated self-driving taxi Robotaxi in Los Angeles, and even launched two models at once.

The first is the two-door model CyberCab.

CyberCab is similar to a combination of Tesla Model 3 and CyberTrcuk, equipped with gull-wing doors, steering wheel and pedals removed, becoming a true "driverless" taxi.

CyberCab is expected to begin large-scale production and deployment by 2027, with a target cost of less than $30,000.

The second is the bus version of the self-driving vehicle, RoboVan, which is at an earlier development stage than CyberCab and resembles a concept design straight out of Star Wars. The vehicle can accommodate up to 20 people and can also be used for cargo transportation.

However, the product and technical details revealed during the press conference were limited, prompting some netizens to quip, "The press conference lasted only an hour, but the party went on all night." Musk knows how to throw a party.

Some witty netizens also interpreted Tesla's teaser release from a clever angle.

Tyler Ogen, CEO of Snow Bull Capital, directly stated that Tesla's CyberCab is two years behind Luobo Express' sixth-generation self-driving vehicle.

In response to Tesla's another "delayed delivery," Fortune magazine said on social media platforms that companies like Luobo Express and WeRide are already providing autonomous taxi services in Chinese cities and are now expanding overseas.

However, as the world's largest automaker by market value, Tesla's entry into the Robotaxi sector, from a technical, policy, or capital perspective, will undoubtedly stir up the development of Robotaxi, especially in North America.

So far, major players in the autonomous driving field such as Luobo Express, Google Waymo, and Tesla have all released their pre-installed mass-produced models, rapidly pushing Robotaxi into a new phase.

1. CyberCab at $30,000: Musk's pie is baked for two years from now

In addition to its eye-catching appearance, Musk mentioned that the primary benefit of self-driving taxis is cost reduction.

"Self-driving taxis can reduce travel costs for users and operating costs for institutions," Musk said.

According to Tesla's estimates, the cost of transportation in the United States is approximately $1 per mile. The cost of using Cybercab is expected to decrease to around $0.20 per mile as the business expands.

Tesla aims to mass-produce CyberCab-like vehicles by 2026 or 2027 and keep the vehicle cost below $30,000.

Meanwhile, Tesla is also developing the second-generation model, CyberCab 2.

With a fleet of CyberCabs, fleet management will become more efficient. In the future, each ride-hailing driver could manage a fleet of 10-20 CyberCabs. "Very few people can manage a large fleet, just like a shepherd caring for his flock. I believe this future is very bright. Through such vehicles, we can open up new business models," Musk said.

And if a larger RoboVan is used, it can carry up to 20 people at once and can also be used for cargo transportation. Musk estimates that RoboVan can achieve more efficient travel at a higher density, reducing the cost per mile to about 5-10 cents.

Another significant benefit of Robotaxi is safety.

Musk believes that "the safety level achieved by FSD can exceed human driving by about 10 times."

Tesla currently has millions of vehicles collecting data and undergoing training. In the future, the Model 3 and Model Y will also achieve unsupervised FSD. Next year, Tesla will introduce fully unsupervised FSD in Texas and California.

"Robotaxi can improve vehicle operating efficiency and passenger travel efficiency while ensuring driving safety. People can enjoy their time in the vehicle and use it as a small lounge," Musk said.

Although Musk painted a beautiful picture for CyberCab, Tesla barely disclosed any details about the product design, technical implementation, or operating model of Robotaxi during the press conference.

This means that the press conference was essentially just another "big pie" painted by Musk.

Although there was less substantive content, it is certain that with the launch of Tesla's Robotaxi, competition in the Robotaxi industry will intensify, and the pace of development will significantly accelerate.

Musk has expressed his belief in the transformative power of Robotaxi and predicts that it could increase Tesla's market value to $5 trillion.

Tesla has switched to a neural network-driven vehicle control technology stack starting with FSD V12.

From perception, decision-making to control, the integrated neural network model replaces the previous system of separate small models and rule-based codes, allowing the system to continuously recognize various extremely complex scenarios from a vast user fleet and form experience in handling these scenarios.

This is a significant breakthrough in autonomous driving algorithms.

On the vehicle side, besides Tesla, HiEV has learned that Waymo originally planned to partner with Zeekr to produce pre-installed mass-produced vehicles based on the SEA-M architecture this year. However, due to factors such as the U.S. tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles, Waymo's mass-produced vehicles are being delayed.

Across the ocean, Chinese self-driving vehicle companies have taken the lead and are planning to expand into overseas markets.

Just two days before Tesla's unveiling of its self-driving taxi, The Wall Street Journal reported that China's autonomous mobility service platform Luobo Express is seeking to launch its self-driving taxi service in overseas markets to extend its competitive advantage beyond mainland China.

Sources say Luobo Express hopes to test and deploy its self-driving taxis in places like Singapore and the Middle East, and is "in discussions with businesses and regulators in these regions about relevant plans."

In response, Hong Kong's Transport and Logistics Bureau said that the new regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles in Hong Kong came into effect in March 2024, and the Transport Department expects to announce successful autonomous vehicle projects with licenses in batches by the end of 2024.

An insider revealed that Luobo Express is planning to release version 10.0 of the Apollo autonomous driving open platform, which is "designed specifically for global users."

Version 10.0 will be equipped with Baidu's latest autonomous driving large model ADFM (Autonomous Driving Foundation Model), which will significantly enhance the security, intelligence, and ease of use of the autonomous driving open platform.

This will also be the world's first autonomous driving open platform equipped with a large model.

Luobo Express' sixth-generation self-driving vehicle has fully adopted the "ADFM large model + hardware product + security architecture," ensuring vehicle stability and reliability through 10 levels of safety redundancy and 6 levels of MRC security strategies. With a mass-produced price below $30,000, it is highly competitive.

3. China's self-driving vehicles need to accelerate

A new round of competition in global autonomous driving is underway, and the Robotaxi sector continues to heat up.

On October 2, Waymo announced that its self-driving taxi service in Austin, Texas, would soon be open to the public. Two days later, Waymo announced a strategic partnership with Hyundai Motor of South Korea, planning to conduct initial road tests of IONIQ 5 vehicles equipped with Waymo technology starting at the end of 2025, with the goal of making the vehicles available to Waymo One users within a few years.

Cruise, the autonomous taxi subsidiary of General Motors, also announced that it would resume autonomous driving services later this year and plans to start charging fees in early 2025.

China has significant advantages in the autonomous driving field, with a large consumer market, well-established new energy infrastructure, and a developed supply chain for complete vehicles, electric components, and intelligent driving parts.

In July this year, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, explicitly stated that pilot demonstrations would be deepened, the standard system would be improved, and the commercial application of high-level autonomous and intelligent connected vehicles would be accelerated.

According to public information, 54 provinces, cities, and regions across the country have issued normative documents on open roads and demonstration applications, with 28 cities supporting autonomous driving commercial exploration and 24 supporting autonomous driving unmanned testing.

Since its launch in 2021, Luobo Express has accumulated over 7 million orders and has opened manned tests in 11 cities nationwide, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Changsha, Hefei, Yangquan, and Wuzhen.

Although Musk has "painted a pie" this time, it does not mean that Chinese self-driving companies can "pop champagne at halftime."

Musk previously said that if a company has a significant amount of data indicating that autonomous driving is safer than human driving, regulators will find it difficult to hinder the development of Robotaxi. To this end, Tesla will request regulatory approvals for its FSD supervision version from Europe, China, and other countries, and may obtain approvals by the end of this year.

More patience may be required before Robotaxi becomes widely available. However, the disruptive products and technological breakthroughs introduced by leading companies in the competition are exciting.

At the same time, Chinese autonomous driving companies also need to remain vigilant to stay ahead in this global competition in cutting-edge technology.