Author｜Xie Jiabaoshu

As June unfolds, the 618 shopping extravaganza reaches its peak.

As a pivotal sales period for 3C digital products throughout the year, 618 has consistently been a prime opportunity for smartphone manufacturers to boost sales and capture market share. However, this year presents a unique scenario.

Over the past year, escalating upstream memory prices have steadily driven up overall device costs. Consequently, the leeway for smartphone manufacturers to offer promotional discounts is severely constrained.

Nevertheless, during the 618 period, the smartphone industry witnessed a wave of price reductions, with brands like Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi slashing prices on their models, with the highest reduction reaching 3,500 yuan.

The driving force behind this is the 'prisoner's dilemma' that smartphone manufacturers find themselves in amidst rising memory prices. Leading manufacturers, capitalizing on their scale advantages, have taken the initiative to cut prices to secure market share. Other manufacturers, fearing user loss, have been compelled to follow suit, ultimately sparking a price war.

As Lei Jun, the founder, chairman, and CEO of Xiaomi, remarked, 'If you're planning to buy a new phone within the next year, I highly recommend doing so now.' Given the anticipated continued rise in memory prices, for consumers, this year's 618 presents a crucial window to purchase new devices at relatively lower prices.

However, it's important to note that due to factors such as shipment volume, supply chain bargaining power, and product mix, the cost pressures borne by smartphone manufacturers vary significantly. Although the 618 smartphone industry has rolled out a series of promotional activities, not all phone products have witnessed genuine price reductions.

01

Behind the 618 Price War: Only Old Flagship Models See Real Discounts

Due to their wider profit margins, flagship smartphones have emerged as the primary focus for promotions during this year's 618, with average price reductions hovering around a thousand yuan.

Image source: Tmall

For instance, on Tmall, after applying various discounts, the Huawei Mate X6, Xiaomi 15 Ultra, and OPPO Find X9 Pro saw price reductions of 3,500 yuan, 2,700 yuan, and 1,289 yuan, respectively, with final prices of 9,499 yuan, 3,799 yuan, and 4,310 yuan.

In contrast, mid-range and low-end products priced around 2,000 yuan, such as the REDMI K90, iQOO Z10 Turbo+, and Realme GT8, only saw price reductions of around 500 yuan. After excluding government subsidies, official discounts were minimal.

It's worth noting that although flagship smartphones have witnessed significantly higher price reductions than mid-range and low-end models, this doesn't necessarily imply greater sincerity.

Currently, most smartphone products with price reductions exceeding 2,000 yuan are older flagship models that have been on the market for an extended period. Most new flagship models have only seen price reductions of around a thousand yuan.

Looking at the broader picture, the discounts on new flagship models are relatively modest. Since the second half of 2025, with the surge in memory prices, the prices of many new flagship models have been on the rise.

Image source: vivo

For example, when the vivo X300 standard version was first released in October 2025, its starting price was 4,399 yuan, a 100 yuan increase from the previous generation. In March 2026, its starting price rose by another 200 yuan to 4,599 yuan. During 618, the vivo X300 standard version offered an immediate discount of 300 yuan and a government subsidy of 500 yuan, bringing the starting price down to 3,799 yuan.

A longitudinal comparison reveals that during this shopping festival, without the government subsidy, the price of the vivo X300 standard version has remained largely unchanged compared to its initial release price. As a flagship smartphone that has been on the market for over six months, the X300 standard version's limited discount during 618 is unlikely to satisfy consumers.

Overall, although the Chinese smartphone market still launched promotional battles as scheduled during this year's 618, the discounts are notably less substantial than in previous years.

On the one hand, only flagship models have witnessed significant price reductions, while mid-range and low-end products have seen relatively limited discounts. On the other hand, among flagship models, most of the significant price reductions are for older models that have been on the market for a long time. Many new flagship models have seen 'price increases followed by reductions,' and the actual discounts are not as substantial as they appear.

02

Apple Leads the 618 Price Cuts: iPhone 17 Wins the Market with Genuine Discounts

The primary reason for the 'partial price reductions' phenomenon for older flagship models in the Chinese smartphone market during 618 is, of course, the sudden increase in upstream component costs.

Due to the continuous rise in memory prices, the profit margins of smartphone manufacturers are being squeezed. Compared to mid-range and low-end models with thin profit margins, flagship products have higher gross profit margins and more room for price reductions.

However, it's worth noting that unlike previous years when smartphone manufacturers synchronously launched promotions during 618, this year's price war in the Chinese smartphone industry was initiated by Apple. The targeted 'sniping' of Apple by Chinese smartphone manufacturers is also an important incentive for the 'partial price reductions' in the smartphone industry during this 618.

Image source: JD.com

On May 15, 2026, the iPhone 17 series saw across-the-board price reductions. The iPhone 17 standard version was immediately reduced by 200 yuan, and with government subsidies and trade-in subsidies, it started at 4,499 yuan. The iPhone 17 Pro was reduced by 1,000 yuan, and with trade-in subsidies, it could be further reduced by another 1,000 yuan, starting at 6,999 yuan. This promotion runs until June 21, fully covering the 618 period.

After the iPhone 17's price reduction, to avoid losing consumers, a number of Chinese smartphone manufacturers lowered the prices of their flagship products. Before the start of 618, the Huawei Mate X6, Mate X7, and Xiaomi 15 Ultra saw price reductions of 3,000 yuan, 1,000 yuan, and 1,500 yuan, respectively.

Since the iPhone is positioned as a high-end flagship, Apple's influence in the mid-range and low-end markets is relatively limited. Against the backdrop of continuously rising cost pressures, Chinese smartphone manufacturers naturally lack the motivation to proactively lower the prices of their mid-range and low-end products.

However, from a market perspective, although Chinese smartphone manufacturers have followed Apple's lead in lowering the prices of their flagship products, the iPhone 17 series remains one of the most sought-after products during this 618.

Image source: JD.com

The JD.com 618 speed rankings show that from May 13 to June 2, among the cumulative rankings of individual smartphone models, the top three products were the iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone 17.

Looking at the longer term, the price reductions have had an immediate effect in boosting the sales of the iPhone 17 series. Farsight's analysis of the cumulative sales data of the iPhone 17 series for the first 21 weeks of 2026, disclosed by digital blogger 'RD Observation,' reveals that after the eighth week, the year-over-year sales growth rate of the product has been declining, with the 19th week seeing a mere 1.51% increase.

However, thanks to the significant price reduction, the year-over-year sales growth rate of the iPhone 17 series has shown a 'smile curve,' with the 20th and 21st weeks seeing growth rates of 2.61% and 3.56%, respectively.

As Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, said, in the second quarter of 2026, the memory cost increase for iPhones will approach the level of the previous quarter, but Apple's strategy is clear: 'leveraging strong bargaining power to ensure chip supply, bearing cost pressures to capture market share, and subsequently making up for losses through service businesses.'

The reason why the iPhone 17 series is highly sought after by consumers is primarily because Apple has strong bargaining power in the supply chain and possesses a closed-loop ecosystem that integrates hardware and software, allowing it to internally absorb upstream cost increases and genuinely offer discounts to the market.

Image source: Apple

Released in September 2025, the iPhone 17 series not only did not raise prices in response to the memory price increase but even offered 'enhanced specifications.' The standard version's starting storage capacity increased from 128GB to 256GB, and it features an LTPO screen supporting 1-120Hz ProMotion variable refresh rates.

During 618, the iPhone 17 series saw direct price reductions, showcasing stronger price competitiveness compared to a number of Chinese new flagship models that saw 'price increases followed by reductions.'

However, this does not mean that Apple will become the 'winner' in the smartphone industry. Although the iPhone's proactive price reduction has attracted a large number of consumers, it also indicates, to a certain extent, that Apple's pricing power is gradually weakening. If Apple continues to rely on price reductions to gain market share, its high-end brand positioning may be shaken.

03

Memory Prices Will Continue to Rise: Smartphone Manufacturers Need to Prepare for Tough Times

Although memory companies are actively expanding production, against the backdrop of sustained AI demand, the market supply-demand relationship is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and memory prices will remain high for some time.

Recently, Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research report that it expects the supply-demand situation for traditional DRAM, NAND, and HBM to be even tighter in 2027 compared to 2026, with the tightness continuing until 2028.

In response, Lu Weibing, president of Xiaomi, said that the pricing of any smartphone today is affected by the significant increase in memory costs. 'In the second half of this year, especially by the end of the year, some Chinese flagship bar-style phones may see prices exceed 10,000 yuan.'

Since the smartphone market has entered an era of performance surplus, consumer demand for upgrading devices is already weak. Against this backdrop, the continuous rise in memory prices, pushing up terminal prices, will undoubtedly further suppress market demand.

Image source: Counterpoint Research

According to a research report disclosed by Counterpoint Research, it is expected that global smartphone shipments will reach approximately 1.08 billion units in 2026, a 13.9% year-over-year decline, hitting a new low since 2013.

From this perspective, this year's 618 shopping festival is not only an important window for consumers to purchase smartphones but also a rare opportunity for smartphone manufacturers to ship devices before the cost winter arrives. As the smartphone industry enters a mature phase, if manufacturers continue to maintain their existing iteration models, they will face significant downward pressure.

Farsight believes that after the smartphone industry enters a mature phase, instead of simply launching new models and inefficiently capturing market share, smartphone manufacturers should focus on investing their limited resources in operating their existing user base.

Apple's successful experience shows that enhancing user stickiness for smartphone products does not solely rely on hardware specifications but also on continuously iterating software experiences and improving the ecosystem.

Next, Chinese smartphone manufacturers can build deeper user moats by extending system maintenance cycles and strengthening cross-device collaboration capabilities.

In addition, as AI technology gradually matures, smartphones are evolving from mere information terminals to personal intelligent gateways. Against this backdrop, smartphone manufacturers can also restructure their products and business models around the characteristics of AI technology, creating new service scenarios and value systems to forge differentiated competitiveness.

In conclusion, although most smartphones saw limited promotional efforts during this year's 618 due to upstream supply chain pressures, from a longer-term perspective, for smartphone manufacturers, the rise in memory prices is not just a cost crisis but may also prompt industry reshuffling.

It is forcing smartphone manufacturers to abandon the old model of relying on supply chain dividends and price wars to drive growth and instead seek new value propositions.

Especially against the backdrop of accelerating AI technology maturity, what determines the future fate of smartphone manufacturers is no longer just hardware specifications and channel resources but ecosystem construction, software services, and AI implementation capabilities.

For smartphone manufacturers, whether they can leverage this downturn to evolve will determine whether they regain growth in the next industry recovery or are left behind by the times.

Interactive Topic

Which smartphone did you purchase during this year's 618? Do you believe the discounts were substantial?

This article is original content from Farsight and is prohibited from being reproduced without authorization.