Just now, Tesla has finally finalized the timeline for the entry of FSD into China.

The news comes from Tesla's official Twitter account for its AI team. In the first quarter of next year, FSD will enter China, and it will also be open to European users.

However, Tesla also stated in the tweet that approval from regulatory authorities is still pending. In other words, there is still uncertainty regarding this timeline, but Tesla has already set a definitive target date internally for FSD's entry into China. The final result will depend on the completion of the official procedures and announcement.

Prior to this, rumors about FSD entering China had circulated throughout the domestic autonomous driving industry several times. This event itself was largely anticipated, although the exact timing had remained uncertain.

Earlier, during the second-quarter earnings call this year, Musk mentioned the news about FSD entering China and said, "We may see this process by the end of the year."

Given Musk's reputation for missing deadlines, even if the industry dared to believe him, there was still a sense of skepticism and a fear of being misled.

Now, everything is settled, and only the approval of the regulatory authorities remains. Will FSD be able to maintain its excellent performance in China, where it originated in North America? Will it stand out among domestic competitors? The answers are about to be revealed.

01 Latest FSD Roadmap: Entry into China is Just Part of It

Tesla's AI team announced in their latest tweet that, in response to numerous user requests, they are releasing the FSD roadmap.

Tesla AI Team Officially Announces FSD Roadmap

This roadmap broadly outlines FSD's progress timeline from the second half of this year to the first quarter of next year, including several major milestones:

1. In September this year, the FSD V12.5.2 version will increase the interval mileage between necessary interventions by three times. The V12.5.2 version will be rolled out on the HW 3.0 platform and unified with the HW4.0 model. Smart Summon functionality will be introduced. Autopark and FSD will be rolled out on the Cybertruck. Attention detection capabilities based on sunglasses will be launched (we understand this to mean attention detection even when wearing sunglasses). High-speed end-to-end navigation will be available.

2. In October this year, parking and reversing functions will be integrated into FSD (end-to-end parking and reversing capabilities). The interval mileage between necessary interventions for the FSD V13 version will increase by approximately six times.

3. By the first quarter of next year, FSD will be launched in China and Europe (pending regulatory approval).

The schedule is quite intense, and if everything goes according to plan, we can expect to see more innovations from Tesla in autonomous driving in the near future.

For example, integrating parking and reversing functions into an end-to-end model has not yet been achieved by any player in the industry. Once Tesla launches this feature, other domestic players such as XPeng and Huawei are likely to follow suit quickly.

Of course, we are even more excited about the entry of FSD into China, which can be considered a milestone event for the domestic autonomous driving industry. Many questions will finally have definitive answers with the arrival of FSD in China.

02 Domestic Autonomous Driving Industry: Nervous and Anticipatory for FSD's Entry into China

In fact, FSD's entry into China has been a hot topic of discussion in the domestic autonomous driving industry for some time, which is why rumors have evolved repeatedly.

At least in the first half of this year, rumors about FSD entering China by the end of the year had already circulated within the industry. By June this year, it was reported that the Shanghai Lingang Management Committee was promoting the landing of 10 Tesla vehicles in the area for FSD testing, and that the Shanghai Autonomous Driving Demonstration Zone had issued road test licenses to Tesla.

Musk Mentions FSD's Entry into China During the Second-Quarter Earnings Call

Shortly after, during Tesla's second-quarter earnings call in July, Musk announced that the FSD V12.5 or V12.6 version would enter China, Europe, and other countries.

The timing for FSD's entry into China is consistent with previous rumors, i.e., by the end of this year.

Also in July, as Tesla entered the procurement list of domestic government departments, one of the issues preventing FSD from entering China in the past, namely the collection, gathering, and processing of information, seemed to have eased somewhat.

A brief review of these developments shows that although FSD's entry into China in the first quarter of next year is still contingent upon "pending regulatory approval," it seems to be a natural progression and relatively reliable.

Now, it's the domestic autonomous driving industry's turn. As the subtitle suggests, the domestic autonomous driving industry is primarily feeling a mix of anticipation and nervousness about FSD's entry into China.

Tesla Established Production in Shanghai in 2019

The reason for anticipation is straightforward. Just as Tesla's establishment in China in 2019 created a catfish effect that stirred up the domestic electric vehicle industry and significantly accelerated the pace and quality of domestic automotive electrification, the entry of FSD into China may also create a similar effect, speeding up the process of autonomous driving.

At the very least, Tesla's autonomous driving brand has already established a certain level of recognition among users. The entry of FSD into China could, to a certain extent, accelerate user education in autonomous driving.

Nervousness is even easier to understand. Prior to this, FSD's capabilities were rumored to be extraordinary, but they had not yet competed directly with domestic competitors in the same space and time. Its entry into China presents an opportunity and platform to determine which is superior.

The competitive effect is not just about winning or losing; it also provides answers to many questions and controversies that have plagued us.

For example, can pure vision truly achieve or surpass the level of LiDAR fusion perception?

Is LiDAR still necessary in vehicles? Can the so-called end-to-end large model handle the diverse and complex road conditions in China?

With the answers to these questions, the autonomous driving industry is poised to witness a new wave of debates and potentially better solutions and prospects.

Here's to looking forward to it! -END-