10/28 2024 328
China Mobile has released its third-quarter financial results, reporting a slight negative revenue growth of 0.1%. While the magnitude of this decline is minimal, it has nonetheless sent shockwaves through the market. After all, since entering the 5G era, operators' revenues have consistently grown, and this sudden negative growth signals a turning point in the market.
In the mid-to-late stages of the 4G era, the three major operators engaged in a price war, lowering the cost of 5G data plans, resulting in declining revenues and profits for China Mobile and China Telecom. This prompted them to tacitly raise 5G plan prices significantly in the 5G era to avoid further price competition.
During the early commercialization of 5G, 5G data plans typically cost over 100 yuan, quickly reversing the trend of declining revenues. This led the three operators to tacitly maintain high prices for 5G plans. However, the market capacity is ultimately limited. As the number of 5G subscribers surpassed 1 billion, growth in 5G subscribers slowed, and the operators once again quietly resumed price competition.
In operator retail stores, low-cost plans are rarely available, but they are abundant on e-commerce platforms. For instance, 29-yuan plans offering 150GB of data are widely sold through operator channels. These plans differ significantly from the past, as they are nominally sold by third-party channels but activated and verified through operators' official WeChat accounts, ensuring no unauthorized charges.
Given that China Mobile, the largest operator, has reported declining revenues, it is difficult to dismiss the impact of these low-cost plans sold through e-commerce channels. After all, e-commerce channels cover both urban and rural markets nationwide, with significant sales volumes and a substantial share of operator subscribers.
While China Mobile's revenues declined, its net profit increased by 4.6%, a considerable growth rate compared to its revenues. This suggests that China Mobile has achieved profit growth by reducing investments and costs, which could impact the development of 5.5G.
Industry insiders believe that 5.5G offers faster speeds and greater capacity, but it operates at higher frequency bands, requiring a denser network of base stations and higher investments. Moreover, 5G has demonstrated high electricity costs, and 5.5G, operating at even higher frequencies, is likely to be even more power-hungry.
Operators are now compelled to ensure profitability by cutting costs. Given the higher investments and costs associated with 5.5G, operators may lack enthusiasm for it, potentially leading to limited investments in the technology.
Operators' interest in 5G has waned since its early days. The three major operators have all reported plans to reduce network investments, and the number of 5G base stations remains far fewer than 4G base stations. Coupled with the fact that 5G coverage is significantly lower than 4G, operators have been reluctant to accelerate 5G network expansion, let alone 5.5G expansion.
Consumer enthusiasm for 5G has also fallen short of expectations. While operators report over 1 billion 5G plan subscribers, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reveals that there are only over 800 million active 5G network users, highlighting consumers' lack of interest in 5G.
Consumers' lack of interest in 5G is attributed to its high power consumption and rapid data usage. Moreover, 4G is sufficient for basic online activities and video streaming, leading some consumers with 5G phones to disable 5G connectivity and rely on 4G instead.
Five years into its commercialization, 5G, once hailed as an innovative technology, has failed to live up to its potential. With operators facing revenue declines and the need to control costs, the development of more advanced 5.5G technology is undoubtedly hindered. Perhaps operators are already looking forward to 6G, which promises a more cost-effective network solution.