On December 17th, Beijing time, as the U.S. stock market closed for the night, Tesla once again posted a 3.07% gain, closing at $489.88. This marked a three-day winning streak, propelling the stock to a new all-time high. During the trading session, the stock price peaked at $491.5, with the market capitalization reaching a staggering $1.63 trillion.

The immediate catalyst for Tesla's stock surge was its recent launch of fully autonomous Robotaxi testing in Austin, Texas. Notably, this testing utilizes Tesla's currently available mass-produced models, with the notable omission of the safety officer who previously occupied the passenger seat.

This development comes just over six months after Tesla initiated its Robotaxi trial operations, which initially included a safety officer.

This milestone underscores Tesla's swift advancements in the Robotaxi sector (or perhaps reflects its audacious approach).

Once Tesla's current mass-produced models are verified to be capable of fully autonomous Robotaxi operations, Musk's long-held promises will materialize. Tesla's vehicles will then be able to generate income by operating as autonomous ride-hailing services. (However, it's worth noting that some Chinese Tesla owners have filed lawsuits against Tesla, alleging that they have not experienced the promised FSD functionalities despite paying a premium.)

The vision is indeed grandiose. This explains why Tesla's stock price can reach new heights, even as its automotive business faces stagnation or decline. The compelling narrative of Robotaxi, with its vast market potential, and Musk's track record of delivering on his promises, are key drivers.

While Tesla's stock price soars on the back of Robotaxi, its competitors are also seizing the opportunity to bolster their positions.

Recent reports indicate that Waymo is seeking a new round of financing, with a rumored valuation exceeding $110 billion and a financing amount surpassing $15 billion. This represents more than double the $45 billion valuation from its previous financing round.

This high valuation is feasible in the current buoyant U.S. primary market.

OpenAI has set the stage for primary market valuations with its $500 billion valuation. Subsequently, SpaceX announced financing and stock buybacks with an $800 billion valuation, and even expressed its intention to go public with a $1.5 trillion valuation in 2026, second only to Saudi Aramco's $1.7 trillion IPO valuation in 2019.

However, there are indications that SpaceX's financing scale will far exceed $30 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco's total financing of $25.6 billion at the time.

Yet, at the time of its IPO, Saudi Aramco was generating approximately $300 million per day, while SpaceX is projected to generate $15 billion in revenue in 2025.

Clearly, the market is willing to assign a higher valuation to SpaceX, a company that embodies the dream of space exploration.

SpaceX's narrative is truly captivating: offering ultra-low-cost rocket launch services, a lucrative satellite internet business with Starlink, promising manned spaceflight and deep space exploration, as well as the latest concept of a space AI computing center.

SpaceX has also directly fueled the growth of the commercial space and commercial satellite sectors, with China and the U.S. fiercely competing in this new frontier.

This is the U.S. secondary market at its craziest, driving an even crazier primary market.

Returning to Robotaxi, U.S. investors have already started to factor it in, both in the primary and secondary markets.

Investors are buying Tesla in the secondary market and chasing Waymo in the primary market. (It's unclear whether GM regrets shutting down Cruise; it likely does, given previous reports of a potential restart, though no further information has surfaced.)

After all, even with a $110 billion valuation, Waymo is still considered relatively affordable compared to Tesla. More importantly, Waymo's Robotaxi business currently boasts a larger scale than Tesla's, completing 450,000 orders per week.

However, once Tesla completes verification, it could instantly deploy a fleet of millions. Of course, this would also require regulatory approval from U.S. authorities.

This represents the biggest gap between Waymo and Tesla, and the issue Waymo needs to address - mass production of vehicles. Should it persist with a model similar to Android or pursue an iOS-like approach? This may also be influenced by Waymo's Google heritage.

Such market expectations have undoubtedly driven U.S. stock market investors into a frenzy. How high will Tesla's market capitalization go in this wave? $2 trillion? $3 trillion? Or will it surpass Apple and NVIDIA to claim the top spot in global market capitalization, exceeding $5 trillion?

The market capitalization and valuation of U.S. stock market Robotaxi targets are both on an upward trajectory.

So, what about the relevant players in China's Robotaxi sector?

Currently, key players in China's Robotaxi sector include WeRide and Pony.ai, as well as Baidu with its Apollo Go service, and automakers like XPeng Motors. Startups in this space also include HelloBike's Robotaxi business and Momenta. Additionally, ride-hailing tech platforms like Didi Chuxing, Caocao Chuxing, Ruqi Chuxing, T3 Chuxing, and Enjoy Ride are all involved in the Robotaxi business to varying degrees.

Looking at these players, which ones will benefit from the recent surge in U.S. Robotaxi valuations? Will the players that benefited from the previous wave of Robotaxi concept stock market speculation perform well in the next wave?

The risk lies in whether Tesla's Robotaxi can successfully achieve commercialization and scale up. This process may also be relatively lengthy, rather than happening overnight. After all, Waymo has been in the game for 15 years.