Four Months of Consecutive Decline

The new energy "dark horse," which has enjoyed soaring sales in recent years, has abruptly hit the brakes.

Data from the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Joint Committee") reveals that in October this year, wholesale sales of extended-range vehicles reached 121,000 units, marking a 1.9% year-on-year decrease, while retail sales plummeted by 7.7% year-on-year.

This marks the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline for extended-range vehicles. More severely, amidst the continuous sales downturn, the market share of extended-range vehicles within the overall wholesale structure of new energy vehicles has also diminished, dropping to 7.5% in October. By contrast, this figure stood at 9.1% at the end of 2024.

In 2024, sales of extended-range vehicles soared to 1.167 million units, representing a 78.7% year-on-year increase, far outpacing the growth rates of pure electric (22.6%) and plug-in hybrid (76.3%) models. Some automaker executives even forecasted that pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range vehicles would eventually divide the market three ways. However, after numerous automakers rushed into this segment and densely launched models, the situation took a sharp turn in the second half of this year, with extended-range vehicle sales declining continuously and pure electric models returning to high growth.

Why Have Extended-Range Vehicles Suddenly Lost Their Appeal?

The Arrival of a Market Turning Point

Kang Bo, Vice President of Seres Group, once stated that given the short-term challenges in achieving breakthroughs in battery technology, extended-range vehicles represent a crucial solution to range anxiety and are more aligned with user habits.

The rapid profitability of Li Auto and Leapmotor has also spurred more companies to focus on extended-range vehicles. Since last year, nearly all mainstream automakers have incorporated extended-range vehicles into their new product plans. According to incomplete statistics, there are currently over 40 extended-range models available for sale.

However, extended-range vehicles have not further captured market share from other vehicle types as automakers anticipated. Instead, they have gradually fallen behind amidst the resurgence of fuel vehicles and pure electric models.

In May, extended-range vehicles still witnessed a high year-on-year sales increase of 54%, but this figure plummeted to 1% in June, followed by a sharp decline: down 11% in July, 7% in August, 13% in September, 1.9% in wholesale volume in October, and a 7.7% drop in retail volume.

In stark contrast, pure electric models recorded wholesale sales of 1.02 million units in October, representing a 31.6% year-on-year increase and accounting for 62.9% of sales, a 6.3% year-on-year rise. In the wholesale structure of new energy vehicles from January to October, pure electric models accounted for 62% (up 4.0% year-on-year), narrowly defined plug-in hybrids accounted for 29% (down 2.9% year-on-year), and extended-range vehicles accounted for 9% (down 1.1% year-on-year).

From the industry's perspective, one of the key factors behind this phenomenon is that the foundation on which extended-range vehicles once relied—addressing range and charging anxiety—is being rapidly eroded by pure electric vehicles. Meanwhile, price reductions, technological upgrades of pure electric models, and the recovery of fuel vehicle sales have all significantly contributed to the cooling-off of extended-range models.

As pure electric vehicles continue to evolve, offering longer range, faster charging, and lower prices, the advantages of extended-range vehicles are gradually diminishing. The emergence of more intelligent fuel vehicles has also brought new changes to the market.

William Li, Chairman and CEO of NIO, stated during the Guangzhou Auto Show that in October, the insurance volume of pure electric large three-row SUVs far exceeded that of extended-range models, indicating a fundamental shift in the market landscape. With technological breakthroughs and improved infrastructure, the golden age of pure electric large three-row SUVs has arrived.

Li believes that advancements in pure electric technology have addressed the core pain point of range anxiety. Additionally, pure electric models offer significant advantages over extended-range models in terms of weight reduction, resulting in better handling, safety performance, and lower maintenance costs.

Reverting to a 'Transitional Technology'?

Amidst the continuous differentiation of technological routes and changing user demands, while pure electric is seen as the ultimate direction, the industry generally believes that plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles will maintain relatively stable market shares for the next 5 to 10 years.

Therefore, many automakers have adopted a 'two-pronged approach' to new energy in recent years, choosing to simultaneously develop pure electric and extended-range routes. Most often, pure electric and extended-range versions are offered as options for the same model. Examples include Li Auto, IM Motors, XPENG, Zeekr, and Leapmotor, all of which have adopted a 'pure electric + extended-range' model layout.

However, today's extended-range technology is not what it used to be. To adapt to new market changes, extended-range models have begun to increase battery capacity and enhance pure electric range to compete in the market. At recent extended-range model launches, slogans like 'largest battery ever,' 'longest range,' and 'new efficiency high' have been prevalent, marking a simultaneous entry into the era of large batteries and high capacity.

For example, the Zenith S800 extended-range version uses a 65 kWh battery, offering up to 400 km of pure electric range under CLTC standards with dual motors and a maximum combined range of 1,333 km. The XPENG X9 Super Extended-Range version is equipped with a 63.3 kWh battery, providing over 452 km of pure electric range and a maximum combined range of 1,602 km. The Avatr 07 retains a 39 kWh base version while adding a 52 kWh high-capacity battery option, offering up to 333 km of pure electric range and a combined range exceeding 1,200 km. The Leapmotor D19 is the industry's first to adopt an 80 kWh battery, providing up to 500 km of pure electric range.

Compared to extended-range models in early 2021, which typically used 30-40 kWh battery packs with WLTC pure electric ranges not exceeding 150 km, the battery capacity of extended-range models has nearly doubled in just a few years. Meanwhile, the rapid proliferation of 800V platforms and 5C ultra-fast charging combinations is also accelerating the alleviation of user range anxiety.

However, this approach has its pros and cons. While increasing battery capacity extends range, it also increases vehicle weight, further raising the already high energy consumption of extended-range vehicles due to their weight. Additionally, the higher costs associated with large batteries and high capacity make the prospects for these models, which automakers once hoped would be profit growth points, even more uncertain.

Nevertheless, as the battery capacity and charging technology of extended-range models continue to align with those of pure electric models, debates over 'pure electric models replacing extended-range models' and 'extended-range models reverting to a 'transitional technology' status' have resurfaced.

Some industry insiders predict that in recent years, the share of pure electric models will continue to rise, and by 2030, 70% of large extended-range users will have transitioned to pure electric vehicles.

However, some experts believe that the recent sales decline of plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles is only temporary, and the future growth prospects for hybrid models remain promising.

Officials from GAC Group also stated that the charging infrastructure in international markets is far less developed than in China, with significant gaps in highway networks, power structures, and charging station density. Under these conditions, plug-in hybrid and extended-range vehicles possess the 'backup' capability of fuel refueling, thus continuing to play a crucial role in export competitiveness.

According to data released by the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of June 2025, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 36.89 million units, accounting for 10.27% of the total vehicle population. From January to November, cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 13.756 million units, up 28.3% year-on-year. Quantitative changes have triggered multiple qualitative shifts. As continuous progress is made in vehicle models, technology, energy storage, and infrastructure, the intensifying competition in the new energy vehicle industry is also accelerating the rapid evolution and differentiation of the market.

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