Introduction

Introduction

On one side is the continuously expanding "production capacity," and on the other side is the "production capacity" that fails to keep up.

Author: Yang Jing

Editor in Charge: Yang Jing

Editor: He Zengrong

Around 2015, a large number of new car manufacturing forces emerged in the Chinese auto market. Someone roughly estimated that the number peaked at over 100. However, in the past two years, only five new car manufacturing forces with actual sales statistics remain: NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor, and NEZHA.

Another statistic is that, also roughly estimated, the total production capacity of these hundreds of new car manufacturing forces exceeded 10 million vehicles. Of course, it is now meaningless to追究 (investigate/probe into) this 10 million production capacity. If we only look at the remaining five, compared to their own sales, most car companies still have excess production capacity.

According to relevant media statistics, NIO's production capacity reached 480,000 vehicles in 2023, XPeng achieved its own production capacity of 400,000 vehicles in 2023, Li Auto expanded its total production capacity to 500,000 vehicles by the end of 2023, Leapmotor has a production capacity of 250,000 vehicles (with 400,000 vehicles under construction), and NEZHA's three factories have a total production capacity of up to 280,000 vehicles.

Looking at the sales of these five car companies last year, NIO delivered 160,000 vehicles for the whole year, XPeng delivered 141,000 vehicles, Li Auto delivered 376,000 vehicles, Leapmotor delivered 144,000 vehicles, and NEZHA delivered 127,000 vehicles. Even if we exclude some water content from ongoing or sprint production capacity, these car companies' production capacity is fully capable of meeting delivery volumes.

So the question arises, why have these five new car manufacturing forces, which were established in 2014-2015 and have been in the Chinese auto market for nearly 10 years, still encountered difficulties in delivery due to production capacity issues? And this is not just an individual case, it is a common phenomenon among these car companies.

The Dilemma of Overall Production Capacity

If there is a biggest victim of the production capacity dilemma, it must undoubtedly be the NIO ET5. As early as August 2022, Qin Lihong, President of NIO, boldly predicted that "in the past year, the average monthly sales of the BMW 3 Series were over 12,000 vehicles, and the ET5's sales in one year will exceed the 3 Series." Such confidence came from the fact that ET5 had over 100,000 orders at that time.

But everyone can see the results now. Except for some months achieving this goal, there is still a significant gap between the current sales of NIO ET5 and the BMW 3 Series. Even Li Bin later summarized, "The orders for ET5 are not a problem, but the overall delivery volume is indeed several thousand fewer than expected. The influencing factors behind this are manifold, some are supply chain issues, and some are caused by the epidemic."