Original by New Energy Outlook (ID: xinnengyuanqianzhan)

In the first year of the elimination round, new forces in the automotive industry who tried every means to boost sales perfectly illustrated the principle of "if you don't advance, you retreat," and even slow progress was considered a mistake.

Xpeng Motors undoubtedly fell into this unlucky category.

In 2024, Xpeng delivered a cumulative total of 52,028 vehicles from January to June, an increase of 26% compared to 41,435 vehicles in the same period of 2023, yet it still couldn't escape the fate of being at the bottom of the "mid-term exam."

Figure/Domestic Major Brand Sales Ranking for H1 2024

Source/New Energy Outlook Chart

But if we rewind to the first half of 2022, Xpeng was still the semi-annual sales champion among the new forces with 68,983 vehicles delivered.

In just two years, Xpeng has "slid to the bottom." However, Xpeng's "downhill" trajectory over these two years is not only reflected in sales. As the first wave of Chinese new energy automakers to successfully "ring the bell" on NASDAQ, Xpeng's share price reached a high of US$51.50 per share during the first half of 2022. Subsequently, Xpeng's stock market performance plummeted. From January to June 2024, its share price peaked at US$14.43 per share.

Recently, affected by negative news such as the resignation of Xpeng Vice President Jiao Qingchun, Xpeng's share price fell again. On July 8, U.S. Eastern Time, its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) closed at US$7.45 per share, down 5.93%, with a total market value of US$7.049 billion.

What exactly has happened to Xpeng Motors?

1. In the first year of the elimination round, is Xpeng on the path of self-denial?

The days of being the "sales champion" were too brief for Xpeng. Starting from the second half of 2022, Xpeng began to continuously touch the monthly delivery low.

The outside world's assessment of Xpeng is that the competitiveness of its old models has declined, the positioning of new models has failed, and the marketing system is shaky and conflicting.

In January 2023, Wang Fengying, known as the "Iron Lady" and the former second-in-command at Great Wall Motors, took office as President of Xpeng Motors. Since then, Xpeng has undergone a series of organizational restructuring, with senior personnel changing wave after wave.

Specifically, in 2023, Wu Xinzhou, Xpeng's Vice President of Autonomous Driving, left to join NVIDIA as Global Vice President, followed by the departure of Liu Lanchuan, head of AI for autonomous driving, and Parixit Aghera, head of software.

In 2024, Xpeng co-founders Xia Heng and He Tao were changed from members of the "core management team" to "lifetime honorary" members; Wang Tao, former head of visual perception for the North American team, Liu Yilin, senior director of autonomous driving products, and this time, Xpeng Vice President Jiao Qingchun and other senior executives resigned; Zhang Li, former general manager of Great Wall, joined Xpeng to oversee manufacturing, and Yuan Tingting, formerly of Alibaba DAMO Academy, joined Xpeng as head of user experience and operations at the autonomous driving center.

The frequent changes in senior personnel have also led some netizens to speculate. Not long ago, there were rumors that Wang Fengying was about to leave Xpeng. In response, not only did Wang Fengying personally refute the rumors, but He Xiaopeng also stood by her. "Nonsense! Me and Fengying are still chatting heatedly in the US. What's this about leaving? We're both working hard for Xpeng's sales."

Several Xpeng owners expressed their opinions in car owner groups, "The turnover rate of senior executives at Xpeng is too high, and the internal situation is too unstable." "The latter waves push the former waves, and the former waves jump ship." "The company should整顿, otherwise how can we talk about development? Who will be next?"

Ms. Ji from Beijing ordered a 2024 Xpeng G6 on her 30th birthday, with delivery scheduled in 2-4 weeks. As a female driver who dares not drive independently on elevated roads, Ms. Ji chose Xpeng primarily for its high-speed NGP.

Figure/Xpeng G6

Source/Xpeng Official Website New Energy Outlook Screenshot

Recently, Ms. Ji, who saw the news of Jiao Qingchun's resignation, was a bit upset. "It's not uncommon for a company to adjust its personnel, but I heard that the one who resigned was the head of Xpeng's technology center organization. It doesn't sit well with me no matter how I think about it."

In fact, this series of frequent changes stems not only from its internal planning and integration but also partly from Xpeng's lack of confidence.

The data for Xpeng's cumulative sales in the first six months of 2024, which increased by 25.6% year-on-year, is indeed positive, indicating a market recovery. However, Xpeng's "competitors" will not stand still and wait to be caught up. In the new force sales ranking for the first half of 2024, brands such as Lixiang, NIO, and Leapmotor all saw significant year-on-year increases, at 35.9%, 60.2%, and 94.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Xiaomi Automobile, which has only been listed for three months and has only one SUV model, SU7, managed to equal Xpeng's June sales in just three months with little effort.

As a result, Xpeng is clearly lagging behind in the first tier of new forces.

Some industry insiders believe that the combination of He Xiaopeng and Wang Fengying, who took office as Xpeng's President at the beginning of last year, has attracted much attention due to its demonstrative significance. However, in terms of current financial reports, sales data, and product launches, Xpeng has not seen significant improvement. "Xpeng's previous 'internal friction' and management issues are essentially product issues. The G9's positioning was inaccurate, the G6 came too late, and the X9's popularity was not enough. If this doesn't change, it will be difficult for anyone to turn things around."

2. Frequent error correction, missed opportunities

Why has Xpeng ended up in this situation?

Probably because it wanted everything and ended up doing nothing well.

From a product line perspective, Xpeng's products cover sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, spanning low-end, mid-range, and mid-to-high-end segments.

For example, Xpeng's first model, the G3, is positioned as a "small SUV" targeting the low-end market; the P7 and G6 are positioned as "mid-to-large sedans" and "mid-to-large SUVs," respectively, targeting the mid-range market; and the G9 and X9, as SUV and MPV models, respectively, target the mid-to-high-end market.

With too many and too confusing product positions, Xpeng finds itself unable to present a flagship model when facing the unpredictable automotive market, and consumers only know the brand when mentioning Xpeng, not the product labels.

Mr. Fan, who has a long daily commute and is considering switching to a new energy vehicle to save costs, first passed on Xpeng after comparing options. "NIO's battery swap technology is impressive, saying that it can swap a fully charged battery in three minutes. SUVs like the Ideal L7 and L8 are really suitable for family use. To be honest, I haven't seen any features of Xpeng's products that can make people remember at a glance. They just feel like a 'generic face.'"

Facing this critical moment, Xpeng still hasn't realized the importance of straightening out its original positioning and layout. Instead, it wants to launch a brand new sub-brand, MONA, which will undoubtedly make Xpeng's strategy even more confusing and complicated when the main brand has not yet done well.

Recently, the good-at-"error correction" Xpeng changed its original idea when officially announcing and turned the "MONA" brand into a series.

However, according to insiders, this change in behavior by Xpeng is more due to considerations of fund control.

Several consumers expressed their expectations for the launch of Xpeng's new model, MONA M03, but the preheat was too long, and their patience and curiosity were long gone.

Figure/Xpeng MONA M03

Source/Internet New Energy Outlook Screenshot

Recently, news that the Xpeng M03 will be equipped with a rear torsion beam non-independent suspension sparked heated ridicule from netizens. "A rebadged and price-reduced car?" "Blind guess, it's a P5 rebadge." "Didn't the switch to torsion beams for the Golf 7 and the second-generation Mazda3 almost get them flamed to smithereens?"

Of course, this isn't the most surprising "error correction." It is reported that Xpeng's new car with the code name F57 will abandon LiDAR and instead adopt a pure vision intelligent driving solution similar to Tesla's FSD.

In response, Tesla CEO Elon Musk commented with "...".

On July 10, Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng responded to Musk's three dots on social media with "P7+, 5 meters+, Technology+."

"I usually use NGP on the highway, and it works well. I don't use assisted driving on city roads, and LCC is a bit tiring. I hope Xpeng's intelligent driving will get better and better in the future," said Mr. Yue, an Xpeng P7 owner.

3. Can the "confused" Xpeng emerge from the shadows?

Sitting and waiting for doom only leads to one outcome – marginalization, but blindly fumbling around like a "headless fly" is also not advisable.

Based on this, Xpeng, which has not yet found its direction, should quickly sort out its internal affairs and find its moat.

In terms of products, He Xiaopeng said that within the next three years, Xpeng plans to launch or revamp about 30 new models. In addition to the already unveiled MONA M03, which is positioned at the 150,000 yuan level, Xpeng will also launch a new model on the 300,000 yuan platform, thereby expanding its market coverage to 100,000-400,000 yuan.

It is worth mentioning that Xpeng, not content with land, has ventured into the skies and started to make inroads into the flying car market. Its eco-enterprise Xpeng Huitian showcased its flying car at the 2024 Beijing Auto Show and completed its maiden flight in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in June, with mass production and delivery expected in 2026.

Figure/Xpeng Flying Car at the 2024 Beijing Auto Show

Source/New Energy Outlook Photography

In today's rapidly evolving new energy market, the expansion of a new energy automaker's product matrix can indeed help it establish a foothold in the market to a certain extent. However, in a fiercely competitive market, having no accurate product positioning is even more terrifying than having a single product matrix.

As one of the earliest new forces in carmaking, Xpeng was once favored by the capital market for its intelligent driving concept. However, in recent years, immersed in continuously expanding its product line, Xpeng has gradually lost its way, with its market performance deteriorating.

Realizing this, Xpeng is preparing to regain its "label."

"In 2024, the company will save money that shouldn't be spent and spend more valuable money on people, research and development, and strategy, achieving better profits in business," said He Xiaopeng.

In 2024, Xpeng will recruit 4,000 people and invest more than 40% more in research and development compared to the previous year, with a total of 3.5 billion yuan planned for AI technology centered on intelligent driving.

Figure/Excerpt from Xpeng's Internal Letter

Source/Laizhou Rongmedia New Energy Outlook Screenshot

Years of losses have made Xpeng a heavy burden to carry, and it is difficult to achieve continuous technological advancements with its own financial resources. In response, Xpeng has chosen the path of strong alliances, signing a technology cooperation agreement with the Volkswagen Group and jointly developing two B-segment smart electric vehicles exclusively for the Chinese market, with an expected launch in 2026.

Overseas, in addition to planning to promote its high-level intelligent driving technology to overseas markets, Xpeng will continue to promote the export of its products. According to the plan, Xpeng will expand into other European markets, including Germany, the UK, Italy, and France, within 2024.

Half of 2024 has passed, and with Xpeng's current annual target completion rate at less than 20%, it is highly unlikely that it will achieve its goal of 280,000 vehicles this year. However, if it can find a suitable survival path in the next six months, its future prospects are still promising.