The Lumberjack, the Creator, the Car, and the World of Jianghu: Witnessing the Rise of China's Auto Industry

Nissan has found itself in the throes of a potential bankruptcy crisis.

With his ace move, Wang Chuanfu may well become the undertaker for Nissan.

1. Profits Plunge 94%: Nissan Faces a 14-Month Survival Window

According to foreign media reports, at least two unnamed Nissan executives have confirmed that the brand is actively seeking new investors. One executive remarked, "We have 12 to 14 months to survive. We urgently need cash flow from Japan and the United States."

Indeed, silence can either lead to a breakthrough or result in perishing unnoticed. Compared to the attention garnered by Toyota and Honda, Nissan has remained relatively obscure.

Now, this once-obscure brand has garnered widespread attention by revealing its bankruptcy crisis.

Some netizens have also expressed regret over Nissan's dwindling 14-month survival window, bluntly stating that it would be better if Nissan declared bankruptcy immediately.

In October, Nissan's sales in China, encompassing both passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles (including Infiniti imports), totaled 61,200 units, marking a year-on-year decrease of 16.51%.

In the first half of 2024, Nissan's net profit stood at just 19.2 billion yen (approximately 900 million yuan), a year-on-year decline of 94%.

From both sales and profit perspectives, Nissan is clearly struggling.

Whether Nissan will truly go bankrupt remains to be seen.

2. BYD Targets Nissan's Overseas Markets, Piling on the Pressure

In addition to the domestic market, overseas markets represent Nissan's primary production hubs. Currently, these markets are also facing fierce competition from Wang Chuanfu's BYD.

Should BYD succeed, Nissan's bankruptcy could accelerate.

Taking 2023 as an example, Nissan's overseas market performance is as follows:

First: The US market is Nissan's largest global market, with sales of 898,795 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, accounting for 26.6% of the global market. Notably, BYD has not yet entered the US market.

Second: Southeast Asian market: Nissan has long been deeply entrenched in the Southeast Asian market, eventually establishing a regional production network through CKD assembly and localized component production, seamlessly integrated into its global production system. In the quintessential Thai market, BYD is already engaged with Nissan. Through localized production, BYD is poised to reshape Nissan's market landscape in Southeast Asia.

Third: European market: Sales in 2023 totaled 623,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. Considering that Europe has always been a bastion of environmentalism, with the share of traditional fuel vehicles continuing to decline, BYD's entry into the European market poses a significant threat to Nissan, which primarily produces fuel vehicles and has yet to establish a strong electric vehicle product line. Moreover, BYD's presence in scattered markets such as the Middle East, Africa, India, and Oceania is almost inevitable, as mentioned earlier, Nissan will face strong competition from BYD in Southeast Asia and Europe. BYD's offensive is expected to hasten the decline of Japanese automakers, exemplified by Nissan.

3. BYD: A Microcosm of China's Auto Industry Supply Chain Ascendancy

The competition among OEMs ultimately boils down to a competition among industrial chains.

Strictly speaking, it's not just BYD attacking Nissan, but rather the superiority of China's auto industry supply chain over Japan's.

BYD is merely a prominent representative of Chinese brands in this context.

As a representative Japanese automaker, Nissan's current survival dilemma is somewhat emblematic.

Previously, seven Japanese automakers, including Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi, and Mazda, have released their mid-year financial reports, all indicating a year-on-year decline in net profit.

The collective downfall of Japanese automakers is largely attributed to the rise of China's auto industry, particularly its independent brands.

In the first three quarters of 2024, the cumulative sales of independent brands reached 9.0314 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with a market share of 65.8%, an increase of 24.6 percentage points from 2021. Notably, independent brands such as BYD, Geely, Chery, Lixiang, and Leap Motor have achieved remarkable growth.

The market pie is relatively fixed. As independent brands carve out a larger share, there's less left for Japanese brands. In fact, much of the market share gained by independent brands has been taken from Japanese automakers.

The continuous market setbacks are the underlying cause of Nissan's bankruptcy crisis.

With the robust rise of independent brands, it's not hard to imagine who among Toyota, Honda, Mazda, and Mitsubishi will be the next "Nissan."

However, during this rise of independent brands, it's crucial to prioritize workers' rights. The ascendancy of China's auto industry should also encompass the elevation of automotive industry talent.