Introduction

The next 365 days will determine the fate of NIO in the automotive landscape.

With six years in the industry, I've always harbored an inexplicable fondness for NIO.

Hence, whenever skepticism or criticism arises regarding this automotive newcomer, I find myself compelled to defend it, using my limited influence to dispel misconceptions.

Granted, as a decade-old company, NIO is not flawless and has yet to secure a resounding victory in areas of significant public interest. However, its unwavering commitment to the vision of 'Blue Sky Coming' has undeniably etched an irreplaceable mark in China's automotive history.

Last week, CEO Li Bin held the annual media face-to-face event in Shanghai, speaking for a grueling three hours and twelve minutes. Through 203 questions, he endeavored to evoke greater kindness and hope towards NIO.

I was present at that event.

Observing his sincere demeanor and the noticeable increase in wrinkles on his face, I couldn't help but reflect, 'Building cars is no mean feat. To keep this colossal ship sailing forward, the founder bears pressures and exerts efforts far beyond imagination.'

Regrettably, for reasons beyond control, the protagonist of our story has yet to reach the shores of triumph. As the interview drew to a close, Li Bin reiterated, 'Sales must double next year,' 'We must achieve full-year profitability the following year,' 'This is my bottom line.' It became evident that NIO's transformation window is closing rapidly.

Against this backdrop, last night, amidst the pleasant ambiance of Guangzhou's Haixinsha, another highly anticipated 'automotive industry Spring Festival Gala'—NIO Day—unfolded gracefully. Themed 'Together,' this grand event was indeed a festival for all 'NIO people.'

However, in my view, it was also a significant test for Li Bin.

As competition in China's automotive market intensifies, every card and resource at NIO's disposal becomes increasingly crucial and precious.

The festival has ended; the final battle commences.

In the following sections, let's first focus on this year's NIO Day. Reflecting on the automotive newcomer's announcements, besides revisiting the touching moments of the past decade, at the product level, it essentially introduced its 'ceiling' and 'floor'—NIO ET9 and Firefly.

Those familiar with our protagonist know who these terms refer to. NIO ET9 and Firefly.

Regarding the former, I can only say, 'As the family flagship and a pioneer of the third-generation platform, challenging the leading BBA models, it truly embodies the responsibility of territorial expansion.'

Unveiled at last year's NIO Day, after 365 days, ET9 is poised to showcase its full potential and deliver to end-users.

Evidenced by Li Bin's extensive introduction of ET9 under the stage lights, some audience members even found it 'boring.' However, when ET9 glided over speed bumps with its active suspension and Skyline chassis, contrasting sharply with the bumpy ride of the Mercedes-Benz Maybach S-Class—a dominant force in this segment—the crowd erupted in applause.

'An executive flagship must also be a technological flagship.'

This sentiment about NIO ET9 has always resonated with me. In terms of product strength, it represents the culmination of NIO's decade-long R&D efforts and is currently the most sophisticated smart electric vehicle an autonomous brand can produce.

At last night's NIO Day, NIO ET9 announced its final price of 778,000 yuan, dropping to 660,000 yuan with the BaaS battery-as-a-service solution.

Is it expensive? It depends on the benchmark. After all, its competitors are BBA and the 7 Series.

Personally, I give NIO ET9 high marks. This family flagship embodies the brand's perseverance and the founder's aspirations.

Furthermore, the D-segment executive sedan market has never featured a Chinese automaker. NIO ET9's arrival aims to change this narrative, a courageous exploration.

'I believe sales should at least outperform the BMW 7 Series and Audi A8, but surpassing the Mercedes-Benz S-Class might be more challenging.' Similarly, during the earlier-mentioned media face-to-face, Li Bin expressed his expectations, brimming with confidence.

Of course, rationally and objectively speaking, for potential D-segment executive sedan customers, product strength is one aspect, but brand value adds more significance. In this regard, while NIO has made breakthroughs, it still has a way to go before fully competing with BBA.

Regarding ET9's performance report after large-scale deliveries next year?

We'll have to wait and see. My view remains unchanged: 'Boosting sales volumes is challenging but can elevate morale and set a higher tone.'

Shifting perspectives, let's turn to the third brand, 'Firefly.'

Many anticipate its arrival. With higher average prices across NIO models, reaching the masses becomes difficult, making them seem less affordable amid the current economic downturn.

Consequently, the premium pure electric mini-car Firefly, sharing the brand's name, becomes many people's gateway to NIO.

At last night's NIO Day, following the 'ceiling' ET9, Firefly made its debut, sparking intense discussions. The primary controversy: 'Do you think Firefly looks good?'

Most skepticism centered on the unconventional 'triplet' front and rear headlights, deemed too alternative and not in line with mainstream aesthetics.

I'm undecided on this aspect at present.

Admittedly, Firefly lacks that 'instantly stunning' appeal. However, upon closer inspection, it exhibits precision in overall vehicle proportion, detail refinement, and product definition.

Meanwhile, its pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan is within expectations. When it officially launches next April, using the BaaS solution, if Firefly can bring the starting price below 100,000 yuan, it could potentially revolutionize the premium pure electric mini-car market.

My only question is, 'Will the front and rear headlights really change after all the feedback?'

At this juncture, I'd like to share further thoughts on this year's NIO Day.

I vividly recall telling a media colleague beside me as the event concluded, 'I don't know why I don't feel as excited and fulfilled as in previous years.'

Returning to the hotel, I opened my laptop and reviewed previous NIO Day articles, suddenly realizing the underlying pain point.

NIO's current situation in China's automotive market is under immense pressure, attacked from all sides. Next year will be a pivotal moment for this automotive newcomer.

However, neither ET9 nor Firefly seem to be NIO's mainstay. Executive flagship sedans and premium pure electric mini-cars are challenging sells.

In other words, the products launched at this year's NIO Day don't quite align with current market needs, creating a gap between expectations and reality.

Perhaps this 'mismatch' and 'disconnect' contribute to the lingering disheartenment.

Discussing the above isn't to criticize NIO's efforts or deny the hard work of those involved in this year's NIO Day. It's more a manifestation of 'the deeper the love, the stricter the criticism.'

Thus, I reiterate, 'Although a decade old, the protagonist of our story is not flawless and has yet to secure a resounding victory in key areas. However, by adhering to the vision of Blue Sky Coming, it has indelibly marked China's automotive history.'

With ET9 and Firefly, NIO's portfolio becomes more comprehensive. As this article concludes, I pose a few open-ended questions.

First, do you believe sales will double by 2025? Second, will the NIO brand achieve year-on-year delivery growth by 2025? Third, how much will the second brand, LeDao, contribute to the company by 2025? Fourth, will Firefly surprise with its order volumes?

Personally, I find it challenging to offer an entirely optimistic prognosis.

Oh, by the way, while browsing Weibo, I stumbled upon a thought-provoking quote fitting for Li Bin, 'For any team, victory in battles elevates the commander's prestige. Strength and victories are the commander's greatest moat. Caring for subordinates and kindness are secondary. The best way for a team to grow is through constant victories, the larger the scale, the better.'

Another NIO Day has concluded, but the real test has just begun. The next 365 days will determine NIO's fate in the automotive arena.

The festival ends; the final battle commences...