Introduction

Once lauded, now tinged with irony.

The magical year of 2024 has officially come to a close.

In China's fiercely competitive automotive market, there's a special group whose combined monthly sales may not even match a traditional automaker's single-month tally, yet they capture over half of the industry's attention.

They are considered bellwethers of the entire market, products of the electrification transformation wave. Many latecomers yearn to join their ranks.

By now, many of you have guessed who I'm referring to.

Let's rewind six years. I vividly remember stepping out of campus and, by chance, becoming an automotive journalist, responsible for covering the protagonists of today's article – the new force in car manufacturing.

Over the next 2,000 days, I witnessed their ups and downs, rises and falls.

The tide of development continues to roll forward. Some sank into the abyss, some struggled, and some flourished. I've gradually shed my youthfulness, but fortunately, life hasn't worn me down completely.

As we enter 2025, I received the task of writing a corresponding recap. After some contemplation, I didn't want to follow the usual routine of listing achievements, successes, and shortcomings.

Instead, I wanted to share some profound thoughts.

Only Four Original Players Remain

On January 1, Beijing time, the so-called "new force in car manufacturing" scrambled to release their 2024 year-end performance reports. Despite the significant water content behind some numbers and the inability to unify statistical methods, the comprehensive performance still shows a general upward trend.

Collectively, they create a thriving scene.

But looking at this slightly cold table, I don't feel elated. Because if we only consider the truly pure new forces in car manufacturing, there are only four left: Li Auto, NIO, XPeng, and Leapmotor.

As for the remaining brands on the list, they either have strong backing from traditional automakers or are masterpieces of tech giants entering the market, leveraging their advantages. Rationally speaking, lumping them all together is somewhat ironic and inappropriate.

Nevertheless, everyone is desperate to affix the label of "new force in car manufacturing" firmly to their heads, wanting to be tightly bound with the original players.

It's impossible to fight against the majority, so we must accept reality.

Fortunately, as the writer of this recap, I have the privilege to "pick and choose." Therefore, this section will focus on those four genuine players.

First, let's discuss Li Auto, which just clinched the annual sales crown among the new forces in car manufacturing.

It's undeniable that the internet has a memory. At the beginning of 2024, Li Auto was very aggressive, setting a sales target of 800,000 vehicles. However, it eventually had to adjust downwards and ended the year with only 500,000 vehicles.

Why did 300,000 vehicles disappear?

The answer is simple. Li Auto misjudged the competitiveness of China's automotive market and underestimated the difficulty of developing the pure electric segment, thus paying the price for its arrogance.

Of course, with the successful launch of Li L6 and the solid foundation and first-mover advantage in the extended-range segment, Li Auto still efficiently preserved its core business in 2024.

It has become the first among the original players to enter a positive cycle and achieve economies of scale.

Facing the slowly unfolding year of 2025, Li Auto's new target is only set at 700,000 vehicles, a departure from its previously blindly optimistic style. Behind this caution lies the fact that the future they are about to face is fraught with uncertainty.

In contrast, Leapmotor, dubbed the "little Li Auto," was undoubtedly the most surprising new force in car manufacturing over the past 365 days.

From January to December, it delivered nearly 300,000 new vehicles, with over 40,000 in December alone. It has three SUV models with monthly sales exceeding 10,000, all priced below 200,000 yuan.

Amazing, truly amazing.

Behind its ascent, it can be said that the right time, place, and people were indispensable. In other words, national policy support, the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and the extreme cost-effectiveness of its products have all become chips in Leapmotor's success.

In 2025, it even aims for 500,000 vehicles. Based on Leapmotor's product planning and launch schedule, this is not an impossible task.

In any case, looking at Leapmotor's development path, there have been too many coincidences and rapid growth. But it is these so-called "coincidences" and "luck" in the eyes of outsiders that have brought it to its current position.

On the other hand, those who know me well know that I have mixed feelings towards NIO. On the one hand, I love it deeply; on the other hand, I am frustrated by its shortcomings.

NIO's 2024 can only be described as mixed.

First, the NIO brand itself delivered about 200,000 new vehicles without the introduction of new models, which is indeed remarkable, especially considering the cooling demand in the high-end pure electric vehicle market.

Second, as the first product under the second brand, the Letao L60 definitely has the potential to compete head-on with the Tesla Model Y. However, due to poor manufacturing performance, it has not provided the expected boost to NIO.

After more than three months on the market, its monthly deliveries have just exceeded 10,000, which is by no means worth pride or self-satisfaction.

In 2025, Li Bin promised that overall sales must double, which translates to nearly 450,000 vehicles. Without exaggeration, considering the intensity of competition in the entire market, the challenge of hitting this target is clearly there.

Meanwhile, the ongoing 300-plus days will be a crucial battle for NIO to usher in a "corporate turning point." Whether it will be a rebirth or a fall into the abyss often happens in the blink of an eye.

As for XPeng, which is mentioned last, it undoubtedly encountered a "disastrous start" in the first half of 2024.

But with the consecutive launches of the MONA MO3 and P7+ in the second half of the year, two well-prepared A-segment and B-segment pure electric sedans in terms of products, configurations, and production capacity, it managed to recover to some extent.

For the whole year, it ended with over 190,000 vehicles.

In 2025, this new force in car manufacturing aims to hit a relatively rational target of 350,000 vehicles. Considering the Matthew effect triggered by the above two products, the renewal of XPeng's organizational structure, and the continuous entry of effective players, there should not be too many problems.

Oh, by the way, as I type these words, XPeng officially released images of the G7. The battle has already begun…

The Three in Turmoil

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, after six years in the industry, I have witnessed too many tragedies in the new force in car manufacturing camp where "you see them build high towers, you see them host banquets, and then you see their towers collapse."

Therefore, I have gradually become accustomed to the brutal reshuffling.

So far, the long list of eliminations in China's automotive market has written the names of "losers" such as WM Motor, Aiways, ENOVATE, Byton, Qiantu Motors, and Thalys.

Even so, as an automotive journalist, especially one specializing in reporting on this camp, I have gradually become accustomed to the separation of life and death. Looking back at the bloody year of 2024, I still feel unprecedented shock, suffocation, and incredulity.

The fundamental reason behind this is that previous "eliminations" almost always went through a long period of preparation and struggle.

In sharp contrast, the past 365 days have all been complete sudden collapses and flash crashes. There were not many signs; it was as if a crack had just been discovered, and then the entire building collapsed instantly.

As for who they are, I believe the answer is obvious – HiPhi, Nezha Auto, and Geely Auto's EV brand Geometry.

Due to various reasons, these three new forces in car manufacturing have all fallen into a stage of uncertainty after being hit hard.

Although some of these brands are still trying to save themselves, even going so far as to call it entering the "Entrepreneurship 2.0 stage," the old saying still holds true: "For any automaker, once there are operational thunderstorms, it is impossible to repair the torn wounds and restore previous brand reputation and user trust."

To put it more bluntly, China's automotive market will never give "losers" a second chance to restart. From the perspective of end consumers, faced with a wide variety of choices, they will only choose the best.

As the wave of electrification transformation becomes more intense, the trend of winners-take-all and resources concentrating towards the top is becoming increasingly irreversible in the entire market.

Precisely based on this background, from HiPhi to Nezha Auto to Geometry, it is not unjust for them to struggle.

After all, from any angle, the corporate shortcomings and fatal weaknesses of the three are too prominent. Faced with increasing game difficulty, they are bound to be infinitely amplified and targeted. In the midst of a difficult war of attrition, it is only natural for them to lose.

If the elimination rounds before 2024 were more like a rough screening stage with relatively easy promotion criteria, then in 2024, as the mesh size of the "sieve plate" for judging each new force in car manufacturing narrowed sharply, the feeling of suffocation undoubtedly came on quickly.

Ultimately, their seemingly glamorous facades were ruthlessly stripped of their "fig leaf."

Incidentally, an interesting phenomenon has emerged. The helmsmen of the four original players who remain at the table are, without exception, "laymen" who have been heavily criticized before.

In contrast, those professional managers who seem to have impressive resumes from traditional automakers and choose to venture into the industry have all failed to continue their glory, leaving them disgraced and in disarray.

In my eyes, "mistaking the platform for ability" may be the biggest culprit.

To borrow a phrase from Tesla CEO Elon Musk: "Making cars is like chewing on glass and staring into the abyss." These elites who are used to having large teams escort them through smooth sailing underestimate the difficulty of starting a business from scratch.

On second thought, among the many surviving automakers, there are also many shoddy makeshift teams. In the fiercely competitive year of 2025, I believe they will show their true colors.

At this point, the article is gradually approaching its conclusion, and I would like to raise a controversial topic, "Do you still consider there to be a new force in car manufacturing now?"

Taking the four original players who remain at the table as examples, they were all officially established in 2014 or 2015 without exception.

A decade has passed, enough time for a seed to germinate, grow, and flourish; enough time for an infant to grow from dependency to toddling and then to running.

Therefore, perhaps we should no longer use such a vague term to define them. And the title of today's article is my final appeal.

"It's been a decade, what new force in car manufacturing is left?"