Produced by | Huabo Business Review

The Northeast, once known as the "eldest son of the Republic," laid the foundation for the growth of New China with its resources and heavy industry.

During the "First Five-Year Plan" period, over 70% of the 156 major projects assisted by the Soviet Union were concentrated in the north, especially in the Northeast, accounting for 54 of them. The agricultural reclamation construction transformed the Great Northern Wilderness, making Heilongjiang an important base for national commodity grain and making outstanding contributions to ensuring China's food self-sufficiency. The first batch of Liberation brand heavy-duty trucks, the first jet aircraft, the first 10,000-ton giant ship, the first diesel locomotive, and the first piece of "Dacron" and other milestone achievements in New China all originated from this land in the Northeast.

However, in 2014 and 2015, the GDP growth rates of the three northeastern provinces ranked among the bottom four in the country, along with Shanxi. This land, rich in historical color, once flourished but also experienced a downturn. But now, Northeasterners are returning to this black soil, and the Northeast is regaining new vitality.

01

Population Begins to Return

In 2023, Harbin in Heilongjiang became an internet sensation. During the three-day New Year's Day holiday in 2024, Harbin received a cumulative total of 3.048 million tourists, with a total tourism revenue of 5.91 billion yuan, reaching a historical peak. The other two provinces in the Northeast were also competitive, with Liaoning and Jilin achieving a positive net population inflow in 2023.

Liaoning ended its 12-year-long net population outflow status, with a net inflow of 86,000 people. Jilin, for the first time in nearly 13 years, reversed the trend of population outflow and achieved a net inflow of 43,000 people. Previously, Jilin had an annual net outflow of up to 340,000 people, and even though the outflow scale has declined since 2021, it still remains above 150,000 people.

At the beginning of 2024, the Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the population changes in 2023, showing that the permanent resident population of Jilin at the end of 2023 was 23,394,100, a decrease of only 80,000 compared to 2022. During the three-day New Year's Day holiday, Harbin received a cumulative total of 3.048 million tourists, with a total tourism revenue of 5.91 billion yuan, reaching a historical peak. It is worth noting that the reason behind this data lies in the combined influence of natural decrease and population movement. In 2023, Jilin's birth rate was once again lower than the death rate, resulting in a natural decrease of 126,200 people, but population movement brought a positive increment. Therefore, according to the data from the Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics, Jilin's net population inflow across provinces reached 43,400 in 2023, the first net population inflow since 2011.

Meanwhile, according to data released by the Jilin Provincial Department of Human Resources and Social Security, the employment rate of graduates staying in the province increased from 53.6% to 60% from 2021 to 2023. In 2023, the number of Jilin natives returning home reached 217,000, equivalent to 60% of the combined total for the previous three years.

At the same time, Liaoning also achieved a historic breakthrough in net population inflow in 2023, with a net increase of 86,000 people. It's worth noting that in 2022, Liaoning's net outflow population still exceeded 110,000 people.

Heilongjiang has not yet released specific population data for 2023.

However, it should be clarified that net population inflow does not mean that the total population in the Northeast is growing. In 2023, despite a slowdown in the downward trend, the total population of Jilin and Liaoning still showed a negative growth trend. This is because compared to the country as a whole, the Northeast has faced issues of population aging and low fertility rates at an earlier stage. The results of the Seventh National Census in 2020 showed that all 36 cities in the three northeastern provinces have entered a stage of profound aging.

02

Who will be the next city with a population of over 10 million?

Yu Xiao, deputy director of the Northeast Asian Research Center at Jilin University, pointed out that the net population growth in the Northeast is not due to an increase in foreign population but rather a decrease in outflow population. This is mainly attributed to the intensifying competitive pressure in big cities, the revitalization of the Northeast economy, and the rise of emerging industries.

Yu Xiao emphasized that the Northeast economy has shown signs of recovery in recent years, creating favorable conditions for retaining talent. The improvement in Sino-Russian relations and the strengthening of economic and trade cooperation with Russia, such as the increase in coal, timber, and vehicle imports and exports, have all contributed to the improvement of local investment and import and export data. At the same time, the further development of local advantageous industries in the Northeast, such as the transformation of FAW Changchun to new energy vehicles and joint venture projects with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd.'s battery factory, have injected new vitality into the local job market.

Driven by major project investment and import and export trade, the Northeast economy performed impressively in 2023. Jilin's GDP growth rate ranked seventh in the country, achieving the best results in recent years, while Liaoning's GDP growth rate also exceeded the national average for the first time.

With the vigorous development of the economy, the phenomenon of population return is gradually emerging, and the competition for the new round of population growth champions in the Northeast is becoming increasingly fierce. It is worth noting that since Harbin's population fell below 10 million in 2023, there has been no city in the Northeast with a population of over 10 million.

Among the urban matrix in the Northeast, Harbin, Shenyang, Changchun, and Dalian are known as the "four kings." However, when discussing candidates for the "next city with a population of over 10 million," the truly competitive ones are limited to Shenyang and Changchun. Dalian's current permanent resident population has not yet exceeded 7.5 million, leaving a significant gap from the 10 million level. While Harbin has been experiencing a decreasing population trend since exiting the 10 million population bracket in 2021, it is difficult to see a turning point in the short term.

Currently, only Shenyang and Changchun have a permanent resident population of over 9 million and can maintain a growth trend against the backdrop of the national negative population growth.

By the end of 2023, the permanent resident population of Shenyang had approached 9.204 million, an increase of 57,000 people year-on-year. At the same time, the permanent resident population of Changchun also reached approximately 9.102 million, an increase of 37,000 people year-on-year.

Both Shenyang and Changchun have set ambitious goals of reaching a population of "10 million" and plan to achieve this by 2025. Shenyang actively promotes population growth through policies such as eliminating the points-based household registration system, allowing high school graduates to directly settle down, and allowing renters to settle down. Changchun is also committed to becoming a megacity with a permanent resident population of over 10 million and an economic output of over one trillion yuan by 2025.