In the future, perhaps the standard for evaluating the quality of a city will no longer be solely based on a series of economic data, but also on its human touch and sense of happiness. A city should be able to support its people's physical needs while also nourishing their souls.

Author | Haoran

This article is an original piece by Yinshenshe. Please contact us for reprint.

Recently, the economic data for the first quarter of various regions have been released successively. After observing the situation, many people have found that the economic data of previously popular online cities like Zibo, Harbin, and Tianshui have not caught fire.

For example, Harbin, which gradually gained popularity starting from the end of last year, had an economic output of 117.31 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. It continued to rank at the bottom among the four major cities in Northeast China (Dalian, Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin).

Image Source: Sohu City

And Tianshui in Gansu, which gained popularity in early March this year due to its spicy hotpot, had a GDP of 19.01 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, lagging behind the province's overall growth rate of 5.9%.

Even Zibo, which has been popular for a whole year, seems lackluster in economic data - its 2023 GDP was 456.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, which is lower than Shandong province's average growth rate of 6%.

As a result, many voices on the internet believe that even though "online celebrity cities" have gained popularity, they have not achieved an economic turnaround and still rely on manufacturing.

Coincidentally, whenever economic data is released in recent years, "online celebrity cities" are always scrutinized, leading to some sentiments, doubts, and reflections that "grilling," "spicy hotpot," "ice and snow cities," etc., are still inferior to manufacturing. Some even believe that "online celebrity cities" are engaging in futile折腾s.

This view is actually somewhat absurd.

Compared to the large-scale and diverse manufacturing industry, the direct pull effect of the cultural tourism industry on GDP is quite limited. Cultural tourism itself is not meant to achieve so-called "economic turnarounds."

Take the established online celebrity cities of Xi'an, Chengdu, Changsha, and Hangzhou as examples. They are all large cities with a population of over 10 million, a long history, and rich cultural tourism resources. After years of planning and promotion, the cultural tourism industry only accounts for about 10% to 15% of GDP.

Not to mention some third-tier cities and counties that have only recently gained popularity through the internet and the trend of "budget travel." People learn about such cities through a meal of grilling, a bowl of spicy hotpot, or a music festival and visit them.

This first and foremost enriches the pockets of local residents. Some netizens once calculated that in Zibo's grilling industry, an average of 50,000 people eat grilling every day, with an average consumption of 100 yuan per person, generating an annual income of over 1.8 billion yuan.

Compared to a city's GDP of several hundred billion or even trillions, these are merely a drop in the bucket, but they are real incomes for locals.

Individual service providers in attractions, transportation, accommodation, and other areas can also benefit from this.

Moreover, becoming an "online celebrity city" and urban industrial development are complementary, not conflicting. No city has neglected manufacturing due to developing cultural tourism.

After all, for many years, developing manufacturing and promoting GDP growth has almost become a golden rule deeply ingrained in local governments.

Xi'an, an established online celebrity city, began large-scale city promotion around 2016. At that time, the Xi'an government attached great importance to new media and often approved new media articles. More than 70 municipal government agencies opened official Douyin accounts, making them among the earliest batch of city institutions.

At the same time, in order to leave a good impression on the influx of tourists, Xi'an implemented a series of reforms in environmental hygiene and administrative efficiency. The city gradually shed its original impression of gray walls and earth tiles, and people learned that Xi'an has exquisite gardens comparable to Suzhou, punk rock that can rival Shanghai, ancient charm that can rival Beijing, and delicious food that rivals Chengdu...

Being an "online celebrity city" means being watched and scrutinized by thousands of netizens, which is a test of a city's response capability and government efficiency. Improving To C service levels can also benefit To B investment attraction.

At that time, Xi'an's industrial development and city marketing were carried out simultaneously, with layouts in new energy vehicles, robotics, new displays, optoelectronics, big data, and cloud computing. The advanced nature of the industry also increased.

Before Zibo gained popularity through grilling, it had actually been focusing on young people for many years, thinking about their needs, and wanting to interact with them and live a good life here. In the process, Zibo gained popularity through the humble grilling, making young people feel the city's friendliness and sincerity.

Xinhua Daily Telegraph said in "The 'Traffic Password' Behind the Popularity of Zibo Grilling" that in order to attract young people, Zibo began to think about their needs in 2021, focusing on creating a "five good" city with "good learning, good looks, good food, good fun, and good entrepreneurship." Since then, Zibo has taken the lead in proposing the construction of a colorful and vibrant youth entrepreneurship-friendly city in Shandong province, exploring ways to enhance urban vitality.

Cities with a large population of young people, friendliness, and good government service attitudes can naturally refresh the investment attraction environment and industrial transformation environment, which is actually the soft power of industrial development.

Harbin's popularity initially stemmed from a negative "ticket refund controversy" - at the beginning of the tourism ice and snow season in December last year, Harbin encountered a "poor review" crisis due to tourists waiting for hours in the cold and snow without being able to participate in activities.

However, the local cultural tourism department immediately took action on-site, apologizing, refunding tickets, and making overnight rectifications, showing sufficient sincerity. Afterward, Harbin's "fanciful" pampering of tourists exploded on social media, with cultural tourism popularity soaring. The local government's rapid response and sincere attitude allowed the city's reputation to rebound overnight.

This rapid response capability and public opinion handling ability are what governments as service providers should possess.

There are not too many "online celebrity cities," but too few. The construction style of more cities and the administrative efficiency of local governments should be scrutinized by netizens and tourists.

Many years ago, when I worked at a think tank-type media under the National News Agency, I was responsible for the regional economy section. At that time, I created a "Cities in a Hurry" series, which was very popular with readers. It was a period when major Chinese cities were competing to lay out industries and making bold breakthroughs. The so-called "in a hurry" was not panic, but the urgency of cities wanting to rapidly carry out industrial layout.

The series mainly involved big cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Qingdao, Hefei, Chengdu, and Wuhan. For example, Hefei, known as the "most powerful investment bank," has received widespread praise for successfully attracting heavyweight enterprises like BOE, CXMT, and NIO, and for betting on strategic emerging industries like artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, new displays, and new energy vehicles.

At that time, the phrase that best reflected the "catch-up" industrial layout among big cities was: "The front 'standard-bearer' is far away, and the rear 'pursuers' are approaching."

However, among China's more than 660 cities and nearly 3,000 counties, the vast majority cannot become trillion-level cities through industrial layout and technological development like these big cities. Some cities are even "shrinking."

In a public lecture in 2016, Professor Long Ying from Tsinghua University said that one-third of China's land area has a declining population density, or more than 10,000 townships, towns, and sub-district offices have lost population between 2000 and 2010.

Using data from 2007 to 2016, Professor Wu Kang from the Capital University of Economics and Business identified 80 "shrinking cities" (24 prefecture-level cities and 56 county-level cities) out of 660 sample cities, including municipalities, provincial capitals, prefecture-level cities, and county-level cities, accounting for 12.1%. These cities had a lower population in 2016 than in 2007, and their population growth was negative for three consecutive years.

This overturned many people's common perception and made me realize that not all cities are "catching up."

We have always been accustomed to urban expansion and economic growth. If suddenly many places are experiencing population decline and urban shrinkage, it feels like the cities built of steel and concrete, red tiles, and green trees are also experiencing "birth, aging, sickness, and death."

Cities like Yumen, Yichun, Hegang, and Jixi, which are resource-exhausted, as well as cities with relatively monotonous industrial structures like Anshan, Yingkou, and Jinzhou, and some underdeveloped and border cities, all belong to "shrinking cities."

In recent years, with the decline in the birth rate and the trend of population concentrating in big cities, "shrinking cities" are only increasing. Harbin's population has dropped below 10 million, and Tianshui's population is also declining year by year.

In the future, on the one hand, big cities and urban agglomerations will initiate a "talent war" and continue to expand, while on the other hand, some small and medium-sized cities and counties will generally shrink.

For cities with weak industrial strength, a population of only tens of thousands to several million, and even population shrinkage, it is particularly important to find industries suitable for local characteristics and improve the living standards of locals, rather than competing with big cities for heavy industry, creating vacant industrial parks, and polluting the environment.

After all, the process of industrial development is still relatively complex, requiring conditions such as resource endowments, years of layout, and opportunities.

For example, Guiyang has seized the opportunity of digital economic development, using its resource and climate advantages to layout the big data industry. Now, Guiyang's digital economy accounts for more than 50% of GDP. Another example is Changchun, where the further development of the automotive industry, especially the new energy vehicle industry, has reinvigorated this "City of Automobiles."

In addition to focusing on whether major industrial opportunities can match local conditions, relying on local resources to develop cultural tourism and becoming an "online celebrity city" is actually a reliable path to improving the living standards of people in some small and medium-sized cities.

Although wealthy countries in the world basically go through a process of industrialization, this is not necessarily the case for different regions within a country, as different regions can have economic divisions of labor.

Taking the United States as an example, many states in the central United States mainly rely on three resources: corn, Yellowstone National Park and the Grand Canyon, and copper mines, corresponding to agriculture, tourism, and resource industries, respectively. The core inputs relied upon are land, natural scenery, and minerals, none of which are mobile.

For non-mobile resources, how can people engaged in related industries become wealthy? Through the free flow of people within the region. As the population decreases, per capita GDP also increases.

The orange areas in the figure account for half of the US economy, but in terms of per capita GDP, the regions can achieve "balanced development." Image Source: Lu Ming, "Great Nations, Great Cities"

In fact, this is indeed the case. Many people in the central United States seek better development opportunities in the eastern and western coastal areas. Although many central states are sparsely populated, people living there are relatively wealthy through rational planning.

As we all know, California in the United States is very powerful, gathering top global technology companies, with "Silicon Valley," Apple, Oracle, Facebook, Fox, Warner Bros., etc., with a population of nearly 39 million and a per capita GDP of $93,000. However, North Dakota in the central United States is well-developed in agriculture, animal husbandry, and mining, without any decent industry. But with a population of only 780,000, its per capita GDP is also $93,000.

Many regions in China have beautiful scenery and rich resources. Apart from industries serving local needs, many cities find it difficult to develop other industries. Blindly adopting the idea of local competition and continuing to develop industries that are not suitable for the local area will only lead to a decline in efficiency. It is better to rely on their unique competitive advantages for development and enhance the government's ability as a "service provider."

Cities that tap into their unique advantages will also be more humanistic. In the future, perhaps the standard for evaluating a city's quality will no longer be solely based on a series of economic data, but also on its human touch and sense of happiness. A city should be able to support its people's physical needs while also nourishing their souls.