Author｜Wuzi

As the Spring Festival draws near, Tencent is gearing up for another "Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack."

On January 26, 2026, Tencent convened its 2025 Annual Staff Meeting, where founder, chairman, and CEO Pony Ma delivered a speech outlining Tencent's strategic thinking and investments in the AI sector.

Commenting on the recent hype surrounding the Doubao phone, Ma stated at the meeting that Tencent has consistently opposed the use of black-market plugins to record and upload users' phone and computer screens to the cloud, deeming it "extremely unsafe and irresponsible."

In stark contrast to his critique of the Doubao phone, Ma expressed a favorable view of Alibaba's Qianwen, lauding its seamless integration with Alibaba's internal ecosystem as "a commendable effort" and its internal ecosystem synergy as both reasonable and praiseworthy.

Ma's stance, to a certain extent, mirrors Tencent's strategic direction in AI. Looking ahead, Tencent will throw its weight behind Yuanbao. On January 25, Yuanbao announced a 1 billion yuan giveaway event during the Spring Festival. In response, Ma remarked, "Instead of splurging on TV ads like our competitors, we're channeling those funds into red envelopes, hoping to recreate the magic of WeChat's red envelope feature during the Spring Festival Gala 11 years ago."

Image Source: Tencent

Beyond generous marketing, Yuanbao is poised for a major upgrade with the launch of the AI social feature "Yuanbao School," aiming to delve into the deep integration of AI and multi-person social networking.

It's evident that as AI technology matures, Tencent recognizes that the internet industry is on the cusp of a new "qualitative leap." As a company that smoothly transitioned from the PC era to the mobile internet era, Tencent has always held the social relationship chain close. In the AI era, Tencent undoubtedly aims to secure its "ticket" through social networking.

Whether "Yuanbao School" can become the next WeChat remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: users' social networking methods will be reshaped by AI technology.

01

Investing 1 Billion Yuan: Tencent's Focus on "Yuanbao School"

As is well known, Tencent has always been a "late bloomer." Around 2023, AI became a hot topic in the tech industry, with AI assistants like Doubao, Kimi, and Wenxin Yiyan emerging in quick succession. In contrast, Tencent didn't launch Yuanbao until May 2024.

Image Source: QuestMobile

Having missed the optimal development window, Yuanbao's market influence significantly trailed its competitors. QuestMobile data reveals that in 2024, the cumulative number of newly installed active users for the Yuanbao App was 3.06 million, merely 2.54% of Doubao's.

In response, Ma admitted, "Our actions were indeed slow. It wasn't until the end of 2024 that our AI products, Yuanbao and the Hunyuan large model, were transferred to CSIG (Cloud and Smart Industries Group), and they only officially started working on the product then."

To catch up with competitors, Tencent launched a massive marketing campaign in early 2025. AppGrowing data indicates that from January 1 to March 13, 2025, the advertising expenses for Yuanbao, Kimi, and Doubao were 710 million yuan, 150 million yuan, and 90 million yuan, respectively. A horizontal comparison reveals that Yuanbao's advertising intensity was significantly higher than its rivals.

Image Source: App Store

Driven by the massive marketing campaign, Yuanbao quickly rose to prominence in the industry. In March 2025, the Yuanbao App surpassed DeepSeek to rank first on the China App Store's free app chart.

Image Source: Lian Shilu

However, it's worth noting that traditional AI assistants are merely chatbots, struggling to provide higher-dimensional value to users, resulting in poor retention rates. In September 2024, data compiled by former Alibaba product expert Lian Shilu showed that Yuanbao's 30-day user retention rate was only 0.51%, lower than its competitors.

Image Source: QuestMobile

Indeed, as marketing efforts gradually waned, the Yuanbao App's user base did show signs of shrinking. QuestMobile data reveals that in March 2025, the Yuanbao App had 42 million monthly active users, which dropped to 32.86 million in September, a sharp decline of 21.76%.

Given the less-than-ideal return on investment from the "spending" strategy a year ago, Tencent's decision to invest another 1 billion yuan in marketing for Yuanbao seems unusual at first glance.

However, Farsight, combining Tencent's latest strategic moves, found that Tencent's substantial marketing investment seems not only aimed at supporting the AI assistant but also at making strides in AI-driven social networking.

Image Source: Tencent

It is reported that on January 26, Yuanbao began internal testing of the AI social feature "Yuanbao School," allowing users to create or join "schools" for interest-based social networking. Yuanbao's AI can enrich interactions among users in group chats.

In response, Ma said, "As a teaser, I'm also participating in the internal test. Yuanbao will introduce a new social feature that leverages Tencent's core strengths. In the future, it may also incorporate communication-related designs. We will first rely on our advantages in social communication and relationship chains to create a positive product atmosphere."

It's clear that the decline in Yuanbao's monthly active users has made Tencent realize that only by creating tangible value for users can AI assistants demonstrate their vitality. Compared to traditional chatbot-style AI assistants, "Yuanbao School" offers more playability and may be more attractive to users. To help "Yuanbao School" gain market traction, Tencent is sparing no expense in launching another massive marketing campaign.

02

Focusing on AI-Driven Social Networking: Tencent's Bid to Maintain Control Over Social Relationship Chains

After realizing that chatbots are not the ultimate form of AI assistants, Tencent's urgent development of differentiated AI social products is largely driven by the fact that social networking is its core strength.

As is well known, as early as the PC era, Tencent established its hold on users' social relationship chains through QQ. With the rise of smartphones, WeChat promptly took over from QQ, becoming the "infrastructure" for mobile social networking in the Chinese internet.

It's worth noting that Tencent didn't immediately secure its "ticket" to the mobile internet era. Given the immense commercial potential of social networking, many internet companies at the dawn of the mobile internet era aimed to create new mobile social products to divert Tencent's market influence.

Image Source: Sina Weibo

A notable example is Sina Weibo, which leveraged its news advantage and celebrity appeal to keep Tencent on edge. According to Mirae Asset's "Sina Weibo Research Report," in 2010, Sina Weibo held approximately 87% of the market share, while Tencent Weibo accounted for only 8%.

Fortunately, Tencent developed WeChat, an instant messaging product. In "Tencent Legend," financial writer Wu Xiaobo wrote, "One day in November 2011, Pony Ma told me that WeChat, a new product launched by Tencent, already had over 30 million users and was gaining 200,000 new users daily. 'With WeChat, the war with Weibo is over.' These were his last words to me, spoken in a low, unwavering tone."

Image Source: Tencent's Q3 2025 Financial Report

Leveraging the social relationship chains of QQ and WeChat, Tencent's advertising, entertainment, and gaming businesses have flourished in recent years. The financial report shows that in Q3 2025, Tencent's value-added services revenue reached 95.86 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, while marketing services revenue reached 36.242 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year.

In response, Ma highly praised IEG (Interactive Entertainment Group) at the 2025 Annual Staff Meeting, calling the group "formidably strong" and joking, "Sometimes, looking at the revenue rankings, I even feel like helping our competitors."

Now, as AI technology matures, the internet industry is approaching a new tipping point of transformation, with many products potentially being reshaped. To continue holding users' social relationship chains in the AI era, Tencent naturally needs to plan ahead and lay the groundwork for next-generation social products.

03

Yuanbao as a "Test Field": WeChat Remains the Ultimate Weapon

Although Tencent has begun to explore AI-driven social networking through "Yuanbao School," WeChat remains the largest mobile social product in China. The financial report shows that in Q3 2025, the combined monthly active users of WeChat and WeChat Work reached 1.414 billion, up 2% year-on-year, setting a new record.

Image Source: Tencent's Q3 2025 Financial Report

Given its need to serve billions of users, WeChat cannot afford to make rash, aggressive attempts at AI-driven social networking. Currently, many internet products have fully integrated AI, while WeChat has only introduced AI in a few areas, such as its search bar, news feed, and official account comment sections.

Against the backdrop of WeChat's limited application of AI technology, "Yuanbao School" appears to be Tencent's test field for AI-driven social networking. If "Yuanbao School" proves successful, WeChat may quickly introduce related features. If it fails, WeChat's vitality will not be harmed.

In response, Ma said, "WXG (WeChat Group) remains the backbone of Tencent, and everyone has high hopes for it. Video accounts and WeChat e-commerce have their own growth logic. When it comes to implementing new technologies based on their characteristics, we need to give them time and patience and act after careful planning."

After entrusting "Yuanbao School" with the task of exploring AI-driven social networking, WeChat will next attempt to integrate AI at the service level. At the 2025 Annual Staff Meeting, Ma discussed the agentization of the WeChat ecosystem.

As early as November 2025, Tencent President Martin Lau revealed that WeChat would launch an AI agent capable of accurately understanding users' needs, intentions, and interests, helping users complete various tasks within the WeChat ecosystem. "With its strong social ecosystem and scenarios like shopping and payments, WeChat can be users' 'ideal assistant,'" Lau said.

Image Source: Alibaba

As mentioned earlier, when discussing the recent AI industry's hot topics, the Doubao phone and Alibaba's Qianwen, Ma held distinct views. While he acknowledged Qianwen's integration with Alibaba's internal ecosystem, he also pointed out its drawbacks, saying, "Users may not prefer an all-in-one solution, and not all services within the ecosystem are the best in the industry."

Given this, the future agentization of the WeChat ecosystem will adhere to a decentralized approach, planning with user needs and privacy security in mind to ensure user trust.

In short, WeChat's future AI services will not follow Qianwen's path of integrating solely with Alibaba's ecosystem. Instead, similar to official accounts, mini-programs, and video accounts, WeChat will leverage its vast user base to build an open platform, introduce third-party service providers, and implement a "horse racing" mechanism to enhance user satisfaction, forming a positive cycle from traffic to functionality.

As Ma said, "In the future, people's time will become increasingly precious. Helping users save time and improve efficiency is crucial, and this is a key consideration for integrating AI into our products." Moving forward, the key indicator of an AI product's competitiveness may not lie in its underlying model capabilities but in its ability to create more user value.

Tencent's exceptional insight into user needs and precise product definition capabilities may help it win the AI battle.

This article is original content from Farsight and is prohibited from reproduction without authorization.