OV has set its sights on the rollable screen.

@TechNewSense Original Author: Zhu Mu Editor: Yi Ye

The small folding phone, which looks similar to a flip phone, ultimately failed to replicate its instant success.

In February this year, TF Securities analyst Guo Mingqi said in a report that OPPO and vivo had stopped plans for new flip phones originally expected to be released in 2024.

Although neither OPPO nor vivo officially responded to this matter at the time, from the perspective of product evolution, OPPO has not released any news about new models since the launch of the OPPO Find N3 Flip in August last year; vivo released its first small folding phone in April last year, but has not updated the small folding phone line at the recent vivo X Fold 3 series launch event, and there are even rumors that it has abandoned the product line.

Regardless of what the two companies say, it cannot be denied that they are lagging behind the industry's general replacement cycle in terms of small folding phones.

From the data perspective, the shipment volume of small folding phones is also facing a decline. According to Counterpoint Research data, shipments of large folding phones increased by 91% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, while shipments of small folding phones decreased by 1% year-on-year during the same period. This is related to the updating of multiple large folding phones and the lack of follow-up strength in small folding phones.

In fact, over the past three years, in addition to fashion, high cost-performance and volume have also been important tasks for small folding phones. OPPO's rapid establishment in the foldable phone market is largely attributed to its small folding phone line.

According to OPPO official data, OPPO's first-generation small folding phone became one of the best-selling foldable phones in China upon its release, accounting for 31% of the market share of this segment.

However, according to actual activation data provided by OPPO offline dealers, even OPPO's prided first-generation N2 Flip has an actual activation number of less than 200,000 units, and the actual sales of the Find N3 Flip have even decreased during the same period; compared to Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 5's estimated actual sales of 4-5 million units during the same year, which is more than twenty times that of OPPO.

Unlike large folding phones that need to "show off," the low shipment volume of small folding phones means high costs, which become the primary consideration for large manufacturers to reduce costs and increase efficiency.

Wang Jie, an employee of the procurement department of a domestic mobile phone company, said that for manufacturers, small folding phones have lower pricing and lower profits than large folding phones. Because they are positioned more towards women, their audience is smaller than that of large folding phones, and the pricing range is limited and cannot be too high. The repurchase rate of small folding phones is also lower than that of large folding phones. "Some panel manufacturers have stopped their new generation of small folding phone projects, and it's unclear what the next generation will be like."

The current form factor is constrained by supply chain technology and it will be difficult to achieve a significant breakthrough in the short term. After losing the key gimmick of attracting users to "try something new," small folding phones, which have a relatively awkward positioning, will inevitably cool down quickly.

However, unlike OPPO and vivo, Honor and Xiaomi are still continuing to develop their respective first small folding phones, but both are targeting high-end fashion users. The Honor Magic V Flip, priced at over 7K, belongs to the same tier as the Huawei Pocket 2, and according to relevant sources, Xiaomi's first small folding phone will belong to the MIX product line, also positioned in the high-end product line, rather than a traditional alternative to large folding phones.

The low-price and high-volume path for small folding phones has been proven wrong in 2024, but from another perspective, positioning at the high end will make it directly hit a clear ceiling and even have a certain impact on the product positioning and sales of their own large folding phones.

It is worth mentioning that although the small folding phone market is gradually shrinking, it will not completely withdraw from the mainstream market. The maturity of supply chain technology also allows more manufacturers to create lower-priced products through downsizing. In addition, its fashion attributes still provide an effective path for the development of foldable phones. With the popularization of large folding phones and the escalation of price wars, mobile phone manufacturers are beginning to explore new foldable phone forms.

Last year, there were rumors that vivo plans to bring the rollable phone to the market before the end of 2024. Recently, OPPO has also reintroduced the rollable screen and expects it to officially go on sale in 2025. Huawei, Honor, Samsung, and other major mobile phone manufacturers have also simultaneously reintroduced the concept of tri-folding screens.

These new foldable screen products actually need to face the same doubts faced by small folding products three years ago: a larger screen has already been proven to be a viable path and can continue to undertake the important mission of brand premiumization against the backdrop of price competition among current large folding products. Is it still necessary to have different forms of small folding phones?

From the perspective of the entire industry development, compared to the uncertainty of small folding phones, AI phones have almost become the most certain direction for all sectors, even Apple has canceled its electric vehicle research and development and shifted its team towards generative AI. Therefore, it is better for major manufacturers to find differences and gain an edge in AI phones rather than betting on small folding phones with high uncertainty.