Why are iPhone, iPad, and MacBook so difficult to fold?

Apple's foldable device has been delayed once again.

In a recent tweet, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo revealed that Apple's first foldable MacBook, originally scheduled for release in 2026, has been pushed back to late 2027 or 2028, due to recent internal changes. Kuo noted that the foldable MacBook has undergone changes in both design and material selection, which may be the main reason for the delay.

(Image source: X)

Since flexible OLED panels entered the consumer market, we have seen the emergence of various foldable electronic products, such as foldable screen phones and foldable laptops, with foldable screen phones becoming one of the fastest-growing categories in the smartphone market.

Apple began exploring the feasibility of foldable devices in 2021, with rumors of a foldable iPhone emerging from various industry insiders. Currently, all of Apple's foldable product projects are delayed, raising questions about what is causing these "innovative" projects to be repeatedly postponed.

Why Are Apple's Foldable Products Continuously Delayed?

Royole introduced the first foldable phone in 2018, followed by Samsung and Huawei with their Galaxy Z Fold and Mate X series targeted at the consumer market. Early foldable phones faced issues like bulkiness, durability, and software compatibility, initially failing to create a significant impact.

However, as more manufacturers entered the market, solutions from OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, Honor, and others have matured products, leading to increased consumer acceptance. Market research firm Techinsights reported a 257% year-over-year growth in global foldable phone sales in Q1 2024, marking six consecutive quarters of positive growth.

Apple was rumored to be exploring foldable devices around 2021 but eventually focused on the iPad and Mac lines for their productivity needs. The foldable MacBook was confirmed in 2023 with an initial release date set for fall 2026, but the latest news indicates another delay.

(Image source: Appleinsider)

Kuo revealed that the foldable MacBook's size has changed from 20.25 inches to 18.8 inches. In the folded state, it remains around 13-14 inches, similar to current MacBook models. TechRadar speculates that Apple's decision to reduce the display size is related to current display technology limitations and considerations for portability and compatibility, keeping the size below 20 inches.

Additionally, the rumored foldable iPad is no longer on the supply chain list, suggesting Apple may have canceled the project or there was misinformation about the foldable MacBook being mistaken for an iPad.

Regardless, the foldable device market is maturing, making it puzzling that Apple, one of the world's largest consumer electronics manufacturers, has yet to release any related products. Apple's conservatism is evident, as seen in its gradual adoption of technologies like full-screen design (iPhone X), 5G (iPhone 12 series), and periscope zoom lens (iPhone 15 Pro Max).

(Image source: Wistia)

Apple likely prefers to introduce foldable products when technology is mature, supply chains are stable, and costs are controlled, ensuring products meet consumers' high expectations. Kuo also noted that the foldable MacBook will not be cheap, comparable in price to the Vision Pro, and Apple may adopt a more refined pricing strategy after the Vision Pro's initial sales struggles.

Is a Foldable MacBook Really Necessary?

Foldable laptops are gradually gaining traction, with products like Lenovo's ThinkPad X1 Fold and ASUS's ZenBook Fold offering larger screen space and portability. These products aim to balance the functionality of tablets and traditional laptops.

Lenovo's ThinkPad X1 Fold features a 13.3-inch OLED foldable screen that expands to 17.3 inches, providing a hybrid experience between a tablet and laptop. ASUS's ZenBook 17 Fold OLED has a 17.3-inch foldable display, similar in size to a desktop monitor when unfolded. These products are high-end, priced above $2,500.

(Image source: ASUS)

In contrast, MacBooks, as representatives of traditional laptops, maintain a single screen and fixed keyboard design, offering diverse functionality but a fixed form factor.

It's not surprising that Apple prioritized designing a foldable MacBook. The foldable design breaks traditional laptop limitations, blending laptop and tablet functions. Users can switch between laptop, tablet, and hybrid modes, adapting to different usage scenarios.

Considering macOS 15's support for iPhone screen mirroring on MacBooks, this multi-device, multi-mode interoperability will likely become a future trend. However, foldable designs also pose challenges, such as screen creases, hinge durability, and software compatibility.

(Image source: Apple)

According to IDC, global shipments of foldable laptops reached 500,000 units in 2023, a negligible fraction of traditional laptops but with a near-200% YoY growth, indicating market potential. Counterpoint Research predicts a 30% CAGR for the foldable laptop market over the next five years.

The foldable laptop market shows immense promise, driven by technological advancements and evolving consumer needs for versatility and portability, similar to the thriving Arm-based laptop market.

(Image source: 9to5Mac)

However, foldable designs haven't garnered widespread consumer attention in the laptop market due to their niche appeal (e.g., ZenBook Fold catering to professionals) and high prices compared to standard ultrabooks.

Apple must consider these factors for its foldable MacBook. If it fails to appeal to a broad audience, it risks becoming another Vision Pro, with strong hardware but limited consumer appeal.

Foldable MacBook: The Next Vision Pro?

The foldable MacBook's delay is confirmed, and Apple must assess market acceptance before its launch.

Firstly, the high cost of foldable MacBooks could hinder their popularity. Current foldable laptops retail for $2,500 to $3,500, much higher than standard laptops. An Apple foldable MacBook could cost even more, positioning it as a niche product unaffordable for many consumers.

Secondly, foldable displays increase learning and maintenance costs. Users accustomed to traditional MacBooks may need time to adapt, and foldable devices may have higher repair costs, raising the entry barrier.

Overall, the foldable MacBook could meet high-end market demands but requires Apple to balance price and user experience to avoid repeating the Vision Pro's fate as a luxury item for tech enthusiasts only.

Source: Leitech