Do scalpers never learn from their mistakes?

Despite claiming that the "iPhone 16 series is completely unoriginal and not worth buying," they rush to place orders faster than anyone else.

As the iPhone 16 series officially went up for pre-sale on September 13th, Apple's official website was overwhelmed, leaving LeiTech waiting in vain for minutes on a blank screen before the purchase page finally loaded. The overload pushed Apple to the top of Weibo's trending topics, reaffirming its popularity and strength.

To get iPhone 16 series devices into consumers' hands as soon as possible, Apple employees are undoubtedly working around the clock. However, it's not just them who are anxious; scalpers are equally eager.

Every year when Apple unveils its new iPhone, scalpers rush to purchase them from various channels and resell them at inflated prices to eager buyers. This year, the iPhone 16 series is no exception, and scalpers are back at it again.

iPhone prices skyrocket once again due to scalpers

Recently, when Huawei's Mate XT was released alongside Apple's new iPhones, scalpers scrambled to buy them up and sell them on second-hand platforms for thousands to tens of thousands of yuan more than the original price (though claims of hundreds of thousands of yuan markups are highly dubious). Unlike the Mate XT, which suffered from production difficulties, high costs, and limited availability, the iPhone 16 series is Apple's flagship model with ample supply, so the markup is naturally less extreme.

On second-hand platforms, many sellers are offering to sell their iPhone 16 series orders, and the markups typically range from 200 to 500 yuan.

(Image source: Xianyu screenshot)

A few sellers have set their order transfer fees as high as 500 to 1000 yuan and are unwilling to negotiate, exuding confidence.

(Image source: Xianyu screenshot)

In general, the markup for the iPhone 16 series varies significantly based on the model. The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus typically command a premium of 200 to 350 yuan, while the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max see markups of 300 to 500 yuan.

One internet user (suspected to be a professional scalper) appears to have snagged multiple iPhone 16 series orders and is offering them for sale at a markup of 300 yuan for the iPhone 16 Pro and 500 yuan for the iPhone 16 Pro Max, requesting a transaction in front of an Apple store on September 20th.

(Image source: Xianyu screenshot)

When the iPhone 15 series launched last year, scalpers frequently bought phones from consumers at a markup and then resold them, with the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max fetching a premium of 500 to 700 yuan just from scalpers alone. The fact that most iPhone 16 series order transfer fees range from 300 to 500 yuan suggests that while the series remains popular, its hype has diminished compared to previous generations, resulting in more modest markups.

Canalys statistics show that in the second quarter of this year, Apple's iPhone sales in China fell out of the top five, whereas they ranked third in the same period last year. These sales figures indicate a decline in Apple's influence in the domestic market.

However, LeiTech observes that a phone's initial launch performance is often not strongly correlated with its final sales figures: Long-term sales depend on a combination of product quality, marketing, and channel distribution. The launch day situation is largely determined by supply and demand, and by limiting the number of units available, companies can artificially create a sense of scarcity, which is why many Android flagship phones sell out instantly.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

It's uncertain whether scalpers will profit from the iPhone 16 wave. On the launch day of the iPhone 15 series last year, many scalpers suffered significant losses as prices dropped rapidly, forcing them to sell at reduced prices. In 2024, scalpers seem to have learned nothing from their past mistakes and continue to speculate on the iPhone 16 series, embodying a gambler's mentality.

So, for Apple fans, is it worth rushing to get the first batch of iPhone 16 series phones? If you can't get one through official channels, should you buy from a scalper?

Is paying extra for the latest iPhone necessary?

This time last year, during the initial sale of the iPhone 15 series, LeiTech visited an Apple store in person and observed that many customers in Guangzhou's Tianhuan Apple Store sold their newly acquired phones to scalpers on the spot. The iPhone 15 Pro was the most popular model among scalpers, but the 128GB version went unnoticed, and the base model iPhone 15 received no attention at all.

(Image source: LeiTech, 2023)

Throughout the morning, scalpers were still willing to pay around 1,000 yuan more for the iPhone 15 Pro/15 Pro Max. Some even offered trade-in services, comprehensively upgrading the customer experience.

(Image source: LeiTech, 2023)

This year, the iPhone 16 series comes standard with Apple Intelligence (launching in Chinese regions in 2025), 45W fast charging, and an upgraded Dynamic Island across all models, along with enhanced camera and performance capabilities. However, pricing remains consistent with the iPhone 15 series across the four models (16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, 16 Pro MAX). Therefore, the iPhone 16 series effectively offers more for the same price, theoretically creating room for markups.

Whether consumers should pay extra depends on Apple's official inventory situation.

Earlier this month, before the iPhone 16 series launch, Wall Street Journal reported from supply chain sources that Apple had prepared over 88 million units for the series, indicating ample availability.

Apple's official website currently estimates a shipping time of 10 working days for orders of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro, roughly four to five days after the official launch. The iPhone 16 Plus is less popular due to its larger screen size, which makes it less portable and more expensive, resulting in shorter estimated shipping times of only eight working days.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

The hottest model remains the iPhone 16 Pro Max, with orders currently estimated to ship in 2-3 weeks, likely due to its higher price point and limited initial availability. Given past experience, LeiTech estimates that on delivery day (September 20th), the iPhone 16 Pro Max may still command a markup of 300 to 1,000 yuan from scalpers.

(Image source: Apple's official website)

Apart from the iPhone 16 Pro Max, the other three models in the series have relatively short wait times when ordered from Apple's official website. Additionally, based on last year's iPhone 15 series launch, some models were available for immediate purchase in-store, and this year's iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus are likely to have some stock available for in-store purchases.

Outside of official stores, third-party channels will have even more abundant inventory this year. For example, food delivery platform Ele.me joined forces with Apple last year to help consumers pre-order the iPhone 15, and it will continue to support the iPhone 16's pre-sale and on-sale synchronization this year. Ele.me is already accepting full-price pre-orders, and there is still stock available for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus. On the launch day (September 20th), Ele.me customers can receive their new phones within half an hour, with customized services like installment plans, sealed packaging, and personal delivery.

(Image source: Ele.me screenshot)

In summary, compared to the iPhone 15 series, the iPhone 16 series has a much shorter initial delivery time, thanks in part to Apple's ample inventory and, perhaps, to the decline in the iPhone's popularity in China. With the support of various channels, consumers will find it significantly easier to purchase the iPhone 16 series on launch day. Therefore, LeiTech believes that unless there's an urgent need to experience the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, or 16 Pro on launch day (e.g., for media, bloggers, influencers, etc.), there's no real need to pay extra.

As iPhone speculation wanes, will scalpers eventually disappear altogether?

Recall that on the launch day of the iPhone 15 series, second-hand prices for the iPhone 15 and 15 Plus plummeted within just two hours. The iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max held their ground for a while longer before also dropping below their launch prices – though not for long.

Judging from this year's iPhone 16 series inventory and estimated delivery times, prices for the series may drop even faster. There's no need to pay extra for the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, or 16 Pro, but the iPhone 16 Pro Max, with its long delivery wait times, still has some speculation value. Those who can't wait may consider paying a premium to scalpers. For the iPhone 16 Pro Max, which starts at 9,999 yuan, an additional few hundred yuan may not seem too steep.

Back when customers had to queue overnight at stores to buy iPhones, scalpers thrived, making a steady profit or even raking it in. Today, with the diversification of channels including official websites, stores, e-commerce platforms, and instant retail platforms, scalpers' business model is under threat. Reselling new iPhones has become a gamble on the time window of scarcity: as long as demand outstrips supply in the short term, the iPhone retains its speculation value.

However, as Apple's production capacity increases and its supply chain strengthens, inventory for the iPhone will only become more abundant and precise. Coupled with the decline in the iPhone's popularity in China, scalpers' business is likely to become increasingly challenging.

Remember when Xiaomi's early smartphones faced criticism for "hunger marketing" due to limited production capacity, and scalpers took advantage of the situation? As Xiaomi's phone business grew, it ensured ample supply for new models, eliminating complaints of hunger marketing and virtually eradicating scalpers.

Scalpers in the mobile phone industry are slowly fading into history.

Source: LeiTech