On July 22, the Gravity-1 Y4 rocket soared over the eastern waters of Shanghai, marking its ignition.

This event signified the rocket's third launch within two and a half years. In the fiercely competitive commercial space industry of today, such a launch frequency might seem somewhat slow. Nevertheless, it is a significant achievement, with all three missions successfully accomplished. As one of the world's most powerful solid rockets, Gravity-1 has set numerous records, including a launch cost of approximately 30,000 yuan per kilogram, versatility for both sea and land launches, and the capability to deploy multiple satellites. This positions it as one of the few competitively priced medium-lift options for current low-Earth orbit satellite networks.

However, this very success is now prompting it to relinquish its leading position.

01 Moving at a Steady Pace

On January 11, 2024, Gravity-1 Y1 achieved a successful maiden voyage from Haiyang, Shandong.

On that historic day, it set a series of benchmarks: the world's largest solid-propellant launch vehicle, China's most capable commercial rocket, and the nation's inaugural strap-on launch vehicle designed for maritime operations.

At the time, the external world witnessed a colossal rocket forging new paths in the commercial space sector.

Yet, after this inaugural flight, the pace of progress did not accelerate as anticipated.

Twenty-one months later, on October 11, 2025, Gravity-1 Y2 once again graced the skies.

Nine months after that, Y4 was poised for its upcoming mission. Over two and a half years, only three launches were completed.

The originally planned Y3 mission saw multiple reports of preparations. In February 2026, Gravity-1 Y3 underwent weighing and other pre-delivery checks at Haiyang's assembly plant, with plans for a launch in the first half of the year. However, no official launch information materialized. On July 15, multiple media outlets referred to Y4 as Gravity-1's third flight.

The specific arrangements for the Y3 mission, which faded from public view, remain shrouded in mystery. Nevertheless, Gravity-1's overall progress underscores a more pressing concern.

Solid rockets excel in speed. Their pre-loaded propellant, lack of need for temporary fueling, short preparation cycles, and adaptability to both sea and land launches make them invaluable for rapid response and specific deployment scenarios.

However, technical speed does not necessarily translate to commercial operational speed.

For commercial rockets, true competition lies not in swiftly completing a single mission but in replicating success into stable, continuous launch capabilities.

Gravity-1's earlier triumphs demonstrated the feasibility of large solid rockets. Yet, transitioning from model development to commercial operations entails overcoming challenges in reliability verification, production delivery, and system construction.

This shift is becoming increasingly evident in the industry's path selection.

CAS Space's ZK-1A solid rocket has completed multiple flights while advancing the development of the liquid-fueled ZK-2A medium-lift rocket. Galactic Energy maintains Ceres-1 solid rocket launches while accelerating the development of the Pallas-1 reusable liquid rocket. i-Space is allocating more resources to the Hyperbola-3 liquid rocket. Coupled with projects like LandSpace's ZQ-3 and Space Pioneer's Tianlong-3, the industry's competitive focus is shifting from validating single-model capabilities to constructing future-oriented, scalable rocket systems.

For Gravity-1, it has proven the worth of large solid rockets. However, for Origin Space, greater competitive pressure lies in transitioning from solid to liquid rocket capabilities.

02 The Limitations of Solid Rockets

Solid rockets will not vanish—nor should they.

They remain indispensable in emergency launches, rapid response, and special missions. Gravity-1's significance lies in bridging part of the current commercial launch market's capacity gap.

The issue is that this market space is dwindling and increasingly unable to support grander ambitions.

Gravity-1's advantages are evident. It boasts a three-and-a-half-stage, all-solid strap-on configuration with a core stage and booster diameter of 2.65 meters, a fairing diameter of 4.2 meters, a liftoff mass of approximately 405 tons, a liftoff thrust of around 600 tons, a near-Earth orbit capacity of 6.5 tons, and a 500 km Sun-synchronous orbit capacity of about 4.2 tons.

Solid motors can be pre-loaded with propellant, eliminating the need for complex pre-launch fueling while offering versatility for both sea and land launches. During the early stages of low-Earth orbit constellation construction, such capacity and responsiveness hold practical value. Its announced launch cost of around 30,000 yuan per kilogram also provides cost advantages over some mature small commercial rockets.

However, solid rockets face inherent technological constraints.

Firstly, non-recoverability. Solid motors are designed for single use, and the rocket body is intended for one flight only. Unlike liquid rockets, they cannot alter cost structures through recovery and reuse. Cost reductions rely primarily on production efficiency and bulk procurement, remaining fundamentally "single-use, single-consumption."

Secondly, mass production limitations. Large solid motors involve complex processes like propellant loading, curing, and testing, restricting production cycles and capacity expansion. Gravity-1's goal of "one launch per quarter" falls short of the continuous, dense launch demands of future constellation networking.

Thirdly, capacity constraints. While 6.5 tons of near-Earth orbit capacity suffices for some current networking tasks, future deployments of thousands or even tens of thousands of satellites will necessitate per-mission payloads to carry more satellites and heavier loads. Liquid rockets with over 20 tons of capacity will possess stronger scaling advantages.

In 2026, China's commercial rocket sector confronts several formidable challenges.

The Long March 10B will validate maritime net-capture recovery, while ZQ-3 continues attempting first-stage recovery. Tianlong-3 is advancing as a private medium-lift liquid rocket. Hyperbola-3 awaits its maiden flight with plans for recovery validation. After ZK-2A's maiden flight, it must demonstrate the stability and continuous delivery capabilities of liquid rockets.

These models are not at the same developmental stage. Liquid rockets will not immediately enter a low-cost era after a single maiden flight or recovery. They must still sequentially answer several questions: Can it fly? Can it fly stably? Can it be mass-produced and launched frequently? Only then can recovery and reuse further reduce costs.

However, liquid rockets at least open the door to a downward-sloping cost curve. While solid rockets can lower prices through manufacturing optimization, they struggle to fundamentally escape the single-use model.

Thus, the more successful Gravity-1 becomes, the more it underscores solid rockets as a highly valuable solution for the current stage. Yet, transitional solutions remain just that—transitional.

Solid rockets will not exit the stage but will shift from mainstay to supplementary roles. Their optimal destination is to gradually cede the main commercial launch channel to liquid rockets, focusing on scenarios where liquid rockets lack flexibility or suitability.

03 Act Two: The Rise of Liquid Rocket Siblings

Origin Space has recognized this trend.

This year, it has not remained stagnant with Gravity-1. Gravity-2 is progressing as planned.

In June 2025, Gravity-2 completed wind tunnel testing, validating its aerodynamic profile. In July, its first-stage engine, servomechanisms, and onboard valves underwent joint hot-fire testing, marking the rocket's transition from standalone component testing to cross-system integration. In September, the Yuanli-110 completed its first full-engine hot-fire test, advancing from 85-ton to 110-ton thrust. In November, a second engine completed multiple ignition verifications.

The Yuanli-110, a kerosene-lox engine with 110 tons of sea-level thrust, features 40%-110% deep throttle capability, pintle injector technology, and over 20 designed reuse cycles. It forms the bedrock for Gravity-2's future low-cost, high-frequency launches.

According to plans, Gravity-2 aims for a 15-ton capacity to 500 km Sun-synchronous orbit with a launch cost of around 20,000 yuan per kilogram and plans to conduct recoverability validation by the end of 2026.

These metrics directly align with the core directions of future commercial rocket competition.

However, concerns loom larger.

Gravity-2's maiden flight and recovery validation are concentrated around critical 2026 milestones. Meanwhile, competitors are advancing rapidly.

A notable comparison is Galactic Energy. Both companies commenced with solid rockets and expanded toward reusable liquid rockets but took different paths. Galactic Energy has established a mature commercial launch capability with Ceres-1 and is now extending toward greater capacity and reusability with Pallas-1. Pallas-1 has completed key ground verifications, including first-stage power system maritime testing, and is planned for a 2026 maiden flight with orbital recovery validation.

Origin Space's competition is no longer about catching up to a single company. The industry's overall pace is accelerating. Companies are advancing along diverse paths: some have entered stable launch phases, others are challenging medium-lift liquid rockets, and some are exploring recovery validation.

This is the true essence of "Act Two."

Solid rockets forge teams; liquid rockets determine valuations. Gravity-1 proved Origin Space's ability to enter the commercial launch market, while Gravity-2 will determine whether it can advance to the next competitive stage.

Gravity-1 Y4 represents the solid mega-rocket's third launch and may mark a critical juncture before it transitions from a commercial launch mainstay to a significant supplementary role.

The narrative of solid rockets is far from over. They aided Origin Space in breaking into the commercial launch market and enabled China's commercial rockets to explore new frontiers. However, as the industry enters a phase characterized by greater capacity, lower costs, and reusability, liquid rockets are assuming center stage for the next act.

A solid rocket's greatest value lies not in the number of launches it completes but in securing time for the next generation within its lifecycle.

Today marks both another triumph for Gravity-1 and the dawn of a transitional era.