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Introduction

Will the harsh reality once again confirm the market's iron law that '80% are just cannon fodder'?

This article is selected from 2026 Market Landscape and Trends

'In the N8L user survey, in addition to BYD's loyal customers, the proportion of BMW users among new customers has surged, which caught us off guard,' said Li Hui, General Manager of Denza Auto, to on the morning of December 30 last year. Since its launch on October 28 last year, N8L sales have continued to climb, soaring from 1,071 units in October to 6,510 units in December.

Priced between RMB 299,800 and RMB 329,800, the Denza N8L, like many other full-size six-seater SUVs launched last year, has successfully tapped into market demand. Starting from April, a wave of full-size six-seater SUVs has emerged, including the Lynk & Co 900, Aito M8, Leading Ideal L90, Wey High Mountain, next-gen ES8, Voyah Taishan, IM LS9, and Zeekr 9X...

These full-size six-seater SUVs, priced between RMB 200,000 and RMB 550,000, are a true reflection of the intense competition in the 2025 automotive market.

While other segments are already overcrowded, full-size six-seater SUVs, driven by the rigid demand of family users and their high-end value proposition, have become one of the few new blue oceans still maintaining double-digit growth. By 2025, cumulative sales surpassed 1.08 million units, up 18.3% year-on-year. The market, once dominated solely by Li Auto, is now crowded with formidable players like Aito, Zeekr 9X, and Denza N8L.

In 2026, even more competitors will flood in, quickly overcrowding this lucrative market. In January's MIIT catalog, the SAIC Volkswagen ID.ERA 9X and NIO ES9 made a splash, while the debut of the first SUV from the Shenxing brand in March and the Zeekr 8X loom large. With intensifying technological divergence and a surge of new full-size six-seater models in 2026, this highly anticipated final blue ocean is approaching a critical inflection point of restructuring and fierce competition.

However, the external environment remains unfavorable. Under the pressure of two consecutive years of declining consumption, the total capacity of the premium market has been shrinking. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in 2025, the market share of vehicles priced over RMB 400,000 dropped from 6.3% to 5.2%; models priced between RMB 300,000 and RMB 400,000 also saw their market share slip from 9.0% to 8.4%. This means that within the RMB 300,000+ market, a 1.3% share was lost in 2025, equating to a contraction of nearly 300,000 units.

In 2026, competition in this segment will shift from chaotic melees to stratified competition. predicts that driven by three key factors—continued increase in product supply, the shift of new energy vehicle penetration towards high-value models, and BBA's upgrades to premium new energy vehicles—the full-size six-seater SUV market is still expected to maintain high growth of 30% to over 50% this year, with the total market volume projected to grow from last year's 1.08 million units to 1.5 million units, continuing to be a red-hot segment in 2026.

Three soul-searching questions for full-size six-seater SUVs in 2026: Can the Zeekr 9X or Aito M9 secure the championship? Can full-size six-seater SUVs capture the MPV market? Which powertrain—pure electric, plug-in hybrid, or extended-range—will dominate?

First, the battle for supremacy between the Zeekr 9X and Aito M9 carries significant weight, representing a clash between traditional automakers and ICT companies. From the Li Auto L9 to the Aito M9, new energy vehicle leaders have set the direction for electrified and intelligent premium models over the past five years. However, the emergence of the Zeekr 9X signifies recognition for traditional automakers' intelligent premium products, a huge morale boost for Geely, Great Wall, Chery, and even Hongqi, and a cause for quiet celebration for BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi.

This promises to be an epic showdown for the throne. The real test for the Zeekr 9X begins after April this year. Due to dissatisfaction with its intelligent driving experience and long delivery times, new orders have slowed from an astonishing daily average of 300 units in November last year to 200 units in January. After exhausting its backlog in the first quarter, its ability to quickly turn around its intelligent driving reputation to attract younger customers will be crucial for the Zeekr 9X to return to selling 10,000 units per month.

After facing head-on competition from the Zeekr 9X since November last year, the Aito M9 will launch a major counteroffensive in March, with a significantly updated M9 in the first half of the year and the M9L launching in the second half, both targeting the Zeekr 9X. Gan Jiayue has set an ambitious annual sales target of 100,000 units for the Zeekr 9X, but whichever of the M9 or 9X first reaches 80,000 units this year will become the new king.

The second question has lingered for a while but remains fresh—MPV and SUV manufacturers have long eyed each other warily. They coexisted peacefully for years, but things changed subtly in 2025. That year, total full-size six-seater SUV sales surged from under 700,000 units in 2024 to 1.08 million units; conversely, MPV sales stood at around 1.03 million units in 2025, down 2.3% year-on-year. This seesaw effect subtly stirred market sentiment.

We predict that due to a massive influx of new products, full-size six-seater SUVs will begin to divert potential home MPV users but are unlikely to fully replace MPVs; MPVs will remain irreplaceable in the business market and high-frequency multi-passenger travel scenarios, with limited substitution between the two. This year, as joint-venture new energy products increase in the MPV segment, like the Buick GL8 plug-in hybrid's debut last year, which reversed the GL8's three-year sales decline, the launch of the Toyota Sienna extended-range model by the end of 2026 will also change the passive situation where MPVs are constantly overshadowed by full-size six-seater SUVs.

Finally, the biggest suspense for full-size six-seater SUVs this year is which powertrain—plug-in hybrid, extended-range, or pure electric—will dominate?

Here's the conclusion: Extended-range and pure electric will lead, with plug-in hybrid as a supplement. With the arrival of the Leading Ideal L90, NIO ES8, and Li Auto i-series, pure electric is moving from the fringes to the mainstream; the Zeekr 9X's victory over the Aito M9 does not prove that plug-in hybrids are superior to extended-range models; the extended-range camp will become vast and powerful this year—not only with the refreshed Li Auto L9 but also with traditional headliners like Volkswagen, Land Rover, and Toyota entering the full-size six-seater SUV fray, leveraging their brand heritage and technological prowess to charge into Aito and Zeekr's territory.

But regardless of the number of players, the cruel '80-20 rule' will ultimately prevail. In 2025, nearly 70 full-size six-seater SUVs were on sale, but fewer than 10 models consistently sold over 5,000 units per month, while over 30 models sold fewer than 1,000 units per month, with nearly 20 models languishing below 300 units per month, once again confirming the market's iron law that '80% are just cannon fodder.'

—This article is selected from 2026 Market Landscape and Trends",