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Weekly Report on the New Energy Vehicle Industry

According to Shanghai Metals Market, this week's market transactions showed a pattern of 'upstream price support and reluctance to sell, downstream need-based purchasing,' with a significant mismatch in price expectations between upstream and downstream.

Upstream lithium salt producers maintained their stance of supporting prices and reluctance to sell, with some companies' asking prices remaining above RMB 170,000 per ton. Downstream material manufacturers had relatively lower psychological purchasing prices, with most primarily purchasing based on demand, and their willingness to buy in small lots weakened as prices rose.

Overall, market inquiries were relatively active, but due to the mismatch in price expectations between upstream and downstream, the actual transaction volume remained relatively stable.

01. Institutional Views

Caitong Securities pointed out:

This month's market trends are in line with expectations: From a total volume perspective, while recent demand for fuel vehicles has been suppressed, consumer preferences are shifting towards new energy vehicles (NEVs). Fuel vehicle sales have suffered, leading to sustained pressure on total sales. Domestic NEV sales performance is generally consistent with the CPCA's previous expectation of 950,000 units, with year-on-year growth still not turning positive but still meeting expectations. With fuel vehicle performance weakening, the NEV penetration rate continues to rise. From an export perspective, automakers' overseas sales continue to grow strongly, especially in the new energy sector, driving total wholesale volumes close to turning positive. The market trends in May are in line with expectations.

Huachuang Securities believes:

Export performance in the first five months, especially for electric vehicles, has continued to exceed expectations, repeatedly reaching new highs in a leapfrog manner. The reasons behind this include non-linear growth in overseas sales this year due to: (1) an increase in automakers and models, (2) a significant increase in channels, (3) an improvement in the inventory-to-sales ratio at dealerships (for stocking), and (4) a rapid increase in dealership demand. Looking ahead, the likelihood of exports continuing to exceed expectations remains high, with an estimated total of 8.94 million export sales for the year. Domestically, influenced by factors such as rising fuel prices and new car price increases, domestic sales have been weak since March. However, considering that while bicycle (per vehicle) subsidy amounts have decreased this year, the coverage may expand, along with a low base in the second half of last year, monthly retail growth in the industry is expected to turn positive in the second half of this year.

02. Macro Events

MIIT Announces NEV Models Eligible for Vehicle and Vessel Tax Relief, Including Geely, BYD, and Seres

On June 11, the MIIT released the proposed content of the 'Catalogue of Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Models Eligible for Vehicle and Vessel Tax Relief' (87th batch), listing multiple models from Geely, BYD, and Seres.

According to the announcement, the application for new product access in this batch involved 743 vehicle manufacturers, with a total of 2,454 new products declared. Among them, 963 models from 304 NEV enterprises were declared, specifically including: 802 models from 223 enterprises for pure electric vehicles, 123 models from 66 enterprises for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and 38 models from 15 enterprises for fuel cell vehicles.

Ministry of Commerce Advances the Construction of a Solid Waste Recycling System for the 'New Three'

The Ministry of Commerce recently held a symposium on the recycling of solid waste from the 'new three' (NEV batteries, photovoltaic panels, and wind turbine equipment) to further understand the recycling situation, analyze existing issues, solicit opinions and suggestions, study the establishment of a '1+N' working system, and deploy key tasks.

The meeting pointed out that China's NEV power batteries are currently entering a large-scale retirement phase, and photovoltaic panels and wind turbine equipment will also soon face peak retirement periods. The recycling of solid waste from the 'new three' is crucial for green development, energy resource security, and public well-being. The Ministry of Commerce will study the establishment of a '1+N' working system, accelerate the improvement of top-level institutional design, and promote the release of relevant policy documents. It will implement differentiated strategies for different fields such as power batteries, photovoltaic panels, and wind turbine equipment, while promoting the integration and application of artificial intelligence in the recycling process, and continue to conduct pilot projects for the construction of a renewable resource recycling system.

Guangdong: Over 3 Million Charging Facilities to Be Built Province-Wide by the End of 2027 to Meet the Charging Demand of Over 8 Million NEVs

The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued the 'Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Guangdong Province.' The plan proposes to establish a high-quality charging infrastructure system that complements ultra-fast, fast, and slow charging by continuously innovating application scenarios, improving the charging network, enhancing charging efficiency, optimizing service quality, and innovating the industrial ecosystem. It aims to promote balanced development of charging infrastructure between the eastern, western, and northern regions of Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta, and facilitate wider adoption and use of electric vehicles.

By the end of 2027, over 3 million charging facilities will be built province-wide to meet the charging demand of over 8 million NEVs; the province will achieve 'ultra-fast charging access in every county,' with the number of ultra-fast charging stations not less than the number of gas stations.

03. Industry News

Domestic Auto Production and Sales Both Achieved Month-on-Month Growth in May

On June 10, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in May, automobile production and sales were 2.616 million and 2.629 million units, respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 1.6% and 4.1%, and year-on-year decreases of 1.2% and 2.1%. In the first five months of this year, automobile production was 12.235 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, and sales were 12.207 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, with the decline narrowing further compared to the first four months.

In terms of exports, 930,000 vehicles were exported in May, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, maintaining a level above 900,000 units for the second consecutive month. In the first five months of this year, 4.059 million vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 63%.

CPCA: 950,000 NEV Passenger Vehicles Retailed in May

On June 8, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that in May, 950,000 NEV passenger vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. From January to May, 3.697 million NEV passenger vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1%. Factors such as high fuel prices and consumption transformation have accelerated the 'oil-to-electric' substitution process, with the NEV retail penetration rate continuing to break through 60% and reaching a historical high of 62.9% this month.

CCTA: China's Autonomous Delivery Vehicle Fleet Tripled in One Year

On June 8, the Logistics Investment and Financing Branch of the China Communications and Transportation Association released the '2025-2026 China Autonomous Delivery Logistics Vehicle Market Development Report': The total fleet size across the industry jumped from over 10,000 units in 2024 to 47,000 units in Q1 2026, with road access opened in over 100 cities. The market is dominated by a duopoly—Jiushi Intelligence (including Cainiao) accounts for 53.2% with 25,000 units, and Neolix accounts for 36.2% with 17,000 units.

04. Company Dynamics

Wang Chuanfu: BYD Will Become the True Global Leader in Scale Within Five Years

On June 9, at BYD's 2025 Annual Shareholders' Meeting, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu stated that looking ahead to the next three to five years, BYD will continue to sustain growth. With the support of second-generation blade batteries, flash charging technology, and new technologies to be introduced next year and the year after, domestic and international markets are expected to achieve dual-wheel drive and form a virtuous cycle, taking Chinese technology global.

Changan Automobile's Self-Developed Shenshu Large Model Passes National AI Filing Approval

On June 8, the official WeChat account of the Chongqing Economy and Information Technology Commission announced that Changan Automobile's fully self-developed Shenshu large model has successfully passed the filing approval for generative artificial intelligence services by the Cyberspace Administration of China, becoming the first automaker in Chongqing and one of the few in China to obtain this national-level qualification. This self-developed multimodal large model, adapted for in-vehicle scenarios, has completed its internal testing phase and officially obtained the legal and compliant qualification for public commercial use.

Dongfeng OpenVAN Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Brand Makes Global Debut, Securing Over 4,000 Orders

On June 6, Dongfeng Motor Corporation held the launch event for its Dongfeng OpenVAN autonomous logistics vehicle brand. Dongfeng OpenVAN introduced four products, including DF-2, DF-8, DF-25, and DF-60, covering all scenarios from last-mile delivery to mainline transportation, providing a one-stop solution.

The Dongfeng OpenVAN smart brain, jointly self-developed with Jiushi Intelligence, adopts an end-to-end large model architecture with over 500TOPS of computing power. Its L4 autonomous driving has undergone cumulative operational verification of over 130 million kilometers, with specialized optimizations for extreme scenarios such as 'ghost probes' and spilled objects.

The safety skeleton is constructed with a fully redundant wire-controlled chassis, with control precision not exceeding 0.1 degrees, reaction time not exceeding 10 milliseconds, and risk prediction time advanced by over 3 seconds. The digital nervous system achieves millisecond-level ultra-low-latency communication based on 5G cloud control technology. It is fully connected to the vehicle-road-cloud integrated collaborative network, enabling efficient global decision-making. Currently, Dongfeng OpenVAN has secured signed orders from major clients exceeding 4,000 units, with deliveries expected to commence in August.

05. Secondary Market

Industry Performance

Industry Valuation

NEV Sales

06. Raw Material Prices

Lithium Compound Spot Prices

Cathode Material Prices

Electrolyte Prices

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