Nowadays, many individuals perceive cars as evolving at a pace akin to smartphones within the consumer electronics realm. Traditionally, cars underwent updates every few years, with a typical model taking three years to reach perfection. Nowadays, however, updates occur every few months, with three new models debuting annually.

Nevertheless, I must convey a stark reality: the update rate of cars has already eclipsed that of smartphones. Describing cars as akin to smartphones is, in fact, a conservative assessment.

Data reveals that from January to May this year, domestic automakers have unveiled 544 new car models, whereas only approximately 50 new smartphones were introduced during the same timeframe. This indicates that the number of new car models is already tenfold that of new smartphones.

What's even more intriguing is that while a smartphone typically has a single launch event, cars follow a different pattern. A single car model may have three separate launch events: first for the technology announcement, then for the pre-sale price reveal, and finally for the official launch. Some estimates suggest that there have been over 1,000 car launch events this year, marking a twenty to thirtyfold increase compared to smartphone launch events.

When you liken cars to smartphones, are you underestimating the former or overestimating the latter? Clearly, the update rate of cars has already surpassed that of smartphones.

Indeed, this is the reality. Consider flagship smartphones from companies like Xiaomi, Huawei, and Apple—they now update annually, with each generation denoted by a new number, such as Xiaomi 17, Xiaomi 15, Xiaomi 18, and so forth, all released on a yearly basis.

But what about cars from certain brands? They genuinely release multiple generations within a single year. A few months ago, a new XXX model was introduced; three months later, a brand-new XXX model emerged; and a few months after that, yet another brand-new generation of XXX was unveiled.

At present, China boasts nearly 200 car brands. If each brand launches 10 new models annually, that translates to over 2,000 new cars each year. Some brands even exceed this figure, launching more than 10 models annually.

In contrast, following a wave of consolidation, the number of mainstream smartphone manufacturers has dwindled. It can be said that 99% of sales are concentrated among the top 10 brands. These smartphone manufacturers now rarely update their product lines frequently, resulting in a significantly lower number of new smartphone models launched annually compared to cars.

Judging by the development trend of smartphones, we can reasonably conclude that in the future, a substantial number of car brands will falter, with only a select few likely to endure. Amidst such fierce competition, a significant portion is destined to be eliminated.

Some institutions have already predicted that currently, there are 129 car brands in the Chinese market, and by 2030, within the next five years, most of them will likely face collapse.

Launching new cars as frequently as smartphones may generate excitement and attention. However, from a market standpoint, it is unfeasible to sustain automakers launching thousands of new cars annually. The business rationale does not support such rapid car updates because, under this approach, a newly purchased car may swiftly become outdated, causing the second-hand car market to collapse and the new car market to follow suit. If everyone ceases to buy, what will be the ultimate outcome?