Source | Yuan Auto

“(Xiaopeng MONA L03) Aiming for steady monthly sales exceeding 30,000 units.”

“It could even surpass that (dog emoji).”

Since the Xiaopeng MONA L03 entered its promotional phase, numerous “Pengyou” (Xiaopeng enthusiasts) have placed high hopes on this new model, particularly regarding its sales potential. A recent, semi-humorous social media post by Yu Tao (Weibo handle @ThomasElectricTrain), Xiaopeng’s Vice President, suggests that the company’s internal sales expectations for this vehicle are at the forefront of the industry.

From January to May this year, only four models—regardless of whether they are new energy vehicles or traditional fuel-powered cars—have achieved monthly sales of 30,000 units or more: the Xiaomi SU7, Geely Boyue L, Tesla Model Y, and Geely Starwish. Moreover, none of these models have consistently maintained such performance every month. Within Xiaopeng, the previous peak for the MONA M03 was “over 15,000 units for three consecutive months.”

If the Xiaopeng MONA L03 can consistently sell over 30,000 units per month, it would undoubtedly dominate this year’s automotive market.

Some may question whether Xiaopeng’s sales target is overly ambitious. Even if the MONA L03 boasts strong product capabilities, given the cooling domestic automotive market this year, consistently selling over 30,000 units per month seems overly optimistic—hence the dog emoji.

However, considering unconventional strategies, such as the MONA L03 retaining a 400V voltage architecture and its global launch announcement in Europe, Xiaopeng might only need one additional factor to average over 30,000 units in monthly sales—including overseas markets.

01 Going Global to Compete with Leapmotor

According to Xiaopeng’s official data, its best-selling overseas model among Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers is currently the Xiaopeng G6. Taking Europe, Xiaopeng’s largest overseas market, as an example, G6 sales once surpassed the combined sales of the G9, P7+, and X9 models by 20%.

Horizontally, the Xiaopeng G6 is also one of the top-performing Chinese brand pure electric vehicles in the European market, with monthly sales generally hovering around 2,000 units. Considering its starting price range of €42,000-€44,000 across different European countries, this is no small feat. For reference, the Volkswagen ID.4 and Tesla Model Y both have starting prices of around €41,000 in Germany.

However, from another perspective, the G6’s relatively stable monthly sales also indicate it has reached a ceiling in Europe, and monthly sales of around 2,000 units for its best-selling model still fall far short of Xiaopeng CEO He Xiaopeng’s ambitions.

According to the plan, Xiaopeng aims for overseas sales to account for 50% of its total group sales within the next five years, with overseas annual sales targeting 1 million units by 2030.

Therefore, expanding into the larger-volume affordable family car market in overseas markets, led by Europe, is essential for Xiaopeng, and this is precisely the mission of the MONA L03. From a product strength perspective, the Xiaopeng MONA L03 has a series of foundations for overseas success.

In terms of design, as a Chinese brand model, the MONA L03 features an original and eye-catching design that won’t subject overseas owners to negative labels. At the hardware level, the Xiaopeng MONA L03 is the first model in the MONA series to offer both pure electric and extended-range powertrains, making it more adaptable to the varying charging infrastructure conditions overseas. Even the 400V voltage architecture, which has been questioned domestically, will become an advantage for this car to better fit overseas charging networks while further compressing costs.

As for Xiaopeng’s most prominent and relatively most competitive advantage overseas—assisted driving—it will also be fully showcased in the MONA L03. In June this year, He Xiaopeng clearly stated that the latest VLA2.0 assisted driving system is going global, with a rollout in overseas markets by 2027. The Xiaopeng MONA L03 will be equipped with assisted driving hardware on par with the brand’s flagship models.

Based on the aforementioned product strengths, Xiaopeng positions the MONA L03 as a 150,000-yuan-class model domestically, meaning its price range will overlap with the Leapmotor B10 (high-end) and C10. The latter two have already proven in overseas markets that Chinese brand electric vehicles in this price range offer a significant advantage.

Data shows that the Leapmotor B10, starting at around €30,000, sold a cumulative 13,500 units in Europe from January to May this year. Led by the B10, major automotive manufacturing countries like Italy, Germany, and the UK have become order hotspots for Leapmotor, with one out of every three pure electric vehicles sold in Italy coming from Leapmotor.

It’s worth mentioning that Xiaopeng has already achieved localized assembly production in Europe and is scouting for suitable factories to further expand capacity. If the Xiaopeng MONA L03 can sell several thousand units per month in Europe and combine with sales from other overseas markets like Southeast Asia to deliver over 10,000 units or even more, then it would be reasonable for the car to consistently sell 30,000 units per month overall.

02 The Advanced Mission of the MONA L03

Returning to the domestic market, the Xiaopeng MONA L03 surpasses its predecessor, the MONA M03, in terms of both attention and product competitiveness, making it widely expected to become a new blockbuster with stable monthly sales of 15,000-20,000 units.

However, the real challenge for the Xiaopeng MONA L03 lies in how to avoid cannibalizing orders from the MONA M03 or even future MONA L05 models.

Since completing its annual model refresh in April this year, the MONA M03 has once again become the sole member of Xiaopeng’s “10,000-unit monthly sales club,” delivering over 13,000 units for three consecutive months in April, May, and June while maintaining an upward trend. It’s worth noting that according to Xiaopeng’s official website, customers who order the Xiaopeng MONA M03 can take delivery as soon as the same week, meaning its strong sales rely on continuously new orders rather than existing backlog.

From Xiaopeng’s perspective, the best-case scenario after the MONA L03’s launch in July is that the new model sells well without affecting new orders for the MONA M03. To achieve this advanced mission, the pricing and model differentiation of the Xiaopeng MONA L03 need to be meticulously planned.

Currently, the main selling models of the Xiaopeng MONA M03 are priced between 119,800 and 139,800 yuan. According to certified transaction price information from leading automotive information platforms, the two high-end models priced at 129,800 and 139,800 yuan account for a higher proportion of sales. Considering the Xiaopeng MONA L03’s official positioning as a 150,000-yuan-class model, this means the budget of consumers who would originally buy the high-end MONA M03 is likely sufficient for the MONA L03.

Against this backdrop, promoting the extended-range version of the MONA L03 domestically and offering the pure electric version only as an entry-level configuration might be one of Xiaopeng’s optional strategies to differentiate it from the MONA M03. After all, the MONA series SUV has a higher-positioned L05 planned for the future, and the pure electric segment’s tasks can be entrusted to that model.

Regarding the Xiaopeng MONA L05, according to currently available public information, the overall dimensions of this model are larger than those of the MONA L03, and it also supports both pure electric and extended-range powertrains. Additionally, the Xiaopeng MONA L05 has already completed its new vehicle information declaration with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and is expected to launch shortly after the MONA L03.

Once the MONA L05 enters the market, Xiaopeng will have four models in the 100,000-180,000 yuan price range: three MONA series models and the Xiaopeng G6. How well it manages the relationships between these models will determine whether Xiaopeng’s overall sales can reach new heights this year.

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