Recently, spy shots of a brand-new sedan from Tesla were captured by American netizens in their home base of California. Considering the sedan's silhouette, the exposure of these road test spy shots easily associates it with Tesla's Model 3. However, since the current Model 3 has only been on the market for a year, is Tesla already eager to introduce a new model? Following this line of thought, it's possible that this road-tested new car is Tesla's long-rumored budget model?

Will the new car be a luxuriously appointed version of Tesla's Model 3?

As mentioned at the beginning, the current Tesla Model 3 has officially been on sale for just over a year. Although from the perspective of updates, the current Model 3 is more like a "new model" rather than a "generation change." However, in terms of the launch schedule, the Model 3, which has not been updated for a long time, underwent a significant mid-cycle refresh last year.

From a technical standpoint, the most noticeable upgrade to Tesla's Model 3 last year was the further simplification of its interior, with the addition of more soft-touch materials, ambient lighting, ventilated seats, and an 8-inch rear control screen.

The most practical upgrade for ordinary users is the significant improvement in driving range, with the entry-level Model 3 now boasting a range of over 600km (under CLTC conditions).

Another upgrade focuses on the future of high-level intelligent driving assistance, centered around the HW4.0 chip and a full vision system incorporating stereo front-facing cameras.

Having reviewed the context, let's return to the latest spy shots. This heavily camouflaged vehicle, which bears a striking resemblance to Tesla's Model 3, begs the question: could the core upgrades lie in the unseen interior, perhaps in the realm of intelligent driving? This possibility, however, seems unlikely.

Not only is Tesla's recently updated FSD V12.5 version compatible with existing models equipped with HW3.0 hardware, but even if this software update represents the upper limit of Tesla's HW3.0 hardware, the HW4.0 used in the current Tesla Model 3 has only just begun to demonstrate its capabilities. According to Tesla, the HW4.0 boasts five times the computing power of the HW3.0 and can support an additional eight times the parameter capacity. This translates to the HW4.0 being able to handle up to 40 times more model parameters than its predecessor. Even if Tesla intends to refresh its intelligent driving hardware, the AI5 chip, still only on paper, won't be available until at least late 2025.

Beyond intelligent driving, another aspect obscured in the spy shots is the interior and rear end of the vehicle. The emphasis on the rear end is significant because spy shots of the new Model Y previously revealed Tesla's adoption of a full-width taillight design. If these spy shots indeed showcase a new Tesla Model 3, it is highly likely that its rear design language will align with that of the potential new Model Y.

The logic behind interior updates follows a similar pattern. However, elements such as the ambient lighting, carbon fiber-style trim, turn signal stalks on the steering wheel, and screen-based gear selector, which were seen in spy shots of the new Model Y, are already present in some variants of the current Tesla Model 3. This leaves panoramic roofs as one of the remaining potential highlights, aside from potentially enhanced interior materials.

Tesla's panoramic roof has been a controversial feature. While it enhances the openness of the cabin, providing more headroom and elevating the overall aesthetic, it has also prompted users to resort to makeshift sunshades. Notably, spy shots of the new Model Y showed a clear move away from the panoramic roof design in some variants. However, not all spy shots of the purported new Model Y show the absence of a panoramic roof. It is therefore reasonable to speculate that Tesla may experiment with removing the panoramic roof from lower-end models in its next phase of production.

Comprehensively, if these latest spy shots indeed depict a new Tesla Model 3, the vehicle is likely to align with the upcoming new Model Y in terms of design language and features. Compared to the current model, upgrades are expected to focus on enhancing visibility, interior quality, and optimizing certain configurations. The spy shots also reveal the use of gunmetal gray hollowed-out alloy wheels and low-profile tires, suggesting a performance-oriented, premium positioning. Intriguingly, these spy shots also spark speculation that this could be the long-awaited budget Tesla (Model 2) that many potential buyers have been eagerly anticipating.

Using Old Model 3 Parts to Create a Brand-New Budget Car?

Given rumors of the Model 2's launch in the first half of 2025, the timing of these road tests aligns with typical production schedules. However, we must first address why the vehicle in the spy shots is perceived to be positioned lower than the Tesla Model 3.

The answer lies in the unmistakably familiar front fascia and headlight contours, which closely resemble those of the older Tesla Model 3. Leveraging older technology to produce less expensive models is a familiar strategy employed by manufacturers with well-established product lines, such as Volkswagen, Toyota, and Hyundai, among others. This practice, known as "concurrent sales," allows for the continued sale of older models alongside newer ones.

From a technical standpoint, this approach is feasible. The delay in the Model 2's launch has primarily stemmed from difficulties in reducing costs. Since the Model 2 cannot significantly undercut the Model 3 in price, it risks being overshadowed by the intense competition within China's new energy vehicle market.

Drawing on Tesla's technological expertise, the ideal cost-reduction strategy would involve one-shot die-casting. However, as evidenced by Tesla's decision to use stainless steel in the Cybertruck instead of aluminum alloy die-casting and the unveiling of its "unboxed process" earlier this year, the technology for large-scale, one-shot die-casting is not yet mature enough for mass production.

When discussing the Cybertruck, we emphasized that the use of stainless steel was a compromise that ultimately led to a significantly higher-than-expected retail price. Clearly, such cost overruns are unacceptable for the Model 2. Therefore, Tesla's budget model will likely rely on aluminum alloy die-casting for cost savings.

This brings us back to Tesla's "unboxed process," which involves manufacturing car components separately before final assembly, rather than following a traditional assembly line process. Specifically, this means stamping (die-casting) components, painting them in parallel, and then welding and assembling them. This approach optimizes factory efficiency and mitigates the risk of production stoppages due to issues in a single stage of the traditional assembly line.

However, even with the "unboxed process," the die-cast panels are larger and more complex than traditional front and rear frames. This significantly increases tooling costs and material development challenges. Previous rumors about the Model 2's design featured angular, boxy aesthetics similar to the Cybertruck. Nevertheless, the latest spy shots of the camouflaged vehicle suggest a new approach: minimizing costs by reusing molds from the older Model 3.

This clarifies the technical rationale. While not a straightforward case of concurrent sales using old technology, such an approach could indeed lower costs while maintaining brand consistency across high-volume models. It's also common for manufacturers to test camouflaged prototypes using existing vehicle shells. Therefore, whether this camouflaged vehicle is indeed the rumored Tesla Model 2 or a refreshed Model 3 remains to be confirmed with more detailed information.