The new energy heavy truck market is expanding, with traditional automakers maintaining a competitive edge, while new entrants must carve out their unique positions.

On July 23, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development." This plan explicitly advocates for the vigorous promotion of renewable energy consumption in the transportation sector, encourages innovative business models like direct green power connections, accelerates the widespread adoption of new energy heavy trucks, and champions the concept of "green vehicles charging with green electricity" for new energy vehicles.

Two days prior, the Ministry of Transport announced the allocation of 22 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for 2026 to support the scrapping and replacement of old commercial freight trucks, with a particular emphasis on transitioning to new energy heavy trucks.

With these intensive policy measures, the market is experiencing robust growth. Foresee Energy, drawing from industry data, reported that in the first half of 2026, domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks soared to 126,200 units, marking an 85% year-on-year increase. Penetration rates climbed from less than 1% in 2021 to nearly 30%, representing a thirtyfold increase over five years.

However, the excitement is largely confined to established players. Among the top ten sellers of new energy heavy trucks in the first half, not a single new entrant made the list. New players accounted for less than 3% of total sales, with cumulative sales reaching only 4,256 units. As the market expands and new players grow, the gap between them continues to widen.

Four Companies Dominate Half the Market, Squeezing Out New Entrants

The market landscape for new energy heavy trucks in the first half was dominated by traditional automakers. CNHTC led with 19,900 units (a 15.8% market share), followed by Sany with 19,200 units (15.2%), XCMG with 17,200 units (13.6%), and FAW Jiefang with 16,400 units (13.0%). These four companies collectively held over 50% of the market share. Shaanxi Automobile, Foton, and Dongfeng trailed with 8.4%, 8.1%, and 7.4% shares, respectively.

DeepWay emerged as the top-selling new entrant in the first half with 2,931 units, ranking tenth. Zero One Auto sold 1,487 units, a 427.3% year-on-year increase, while Super Leopard Heavy Trucks experienced a staggering 945% surge. Despite these impressive growth rates, the absolute numbers remain modest—Zero One's half-year sales barely match two weeks' worth of CNHTC's sales.

This is not a product issue. New entrants possess their own strengths in vehicle integration and three-electric technologies. Zero One Auto, for instance, integrates the motor, gearbox, axle, and power take-off into a single electric drive axle, achieving 94% transmission efficiency and reducing vehicle weight by hundreds of kilograms. Their technological prowess is undeniable.

What they lack, however, is something else. Heavy trucks are production tools, and fleet purchases consider total lifecycle costs, after-sales maintenance convenience, spare parts supply stability, residual value, and financing options. Traditional automakers have spent decades building service networks that new entrants cannot replicate overnight. FAW Jiefang and CNHTC, for example, have after-sales outlets covering every prefecture-level city in China, with spare parts inventories ranging from three-electric components to screws. New entrants' service stations may be hundreds of kilometers away.

Large logistics groups, mines, and port clients often have decade-long partnerships with traditional OEMs, involving bulk purchases, customized development, and long-term maintenance packages. New entrants cannot simply undercut prices; they must disrupt a decades-old ecosystem.

DeepWay, a top-ten contender last year, was squeezed out this year. This is no coincidence. As the market shifts from "can it be used" to "how to use it well," the competition is no longer about who has the most advanced motor but who can reassure users that their trucks will operate reliably.

Each Truck Saves 200,000 Yuan Annually, but the Calculation Isn't Complete

What truly drives bulk vehicle replacements is a clear economic case.

According to CCTV Finance, a building materials company executive calculated: saving 1.5 yuan per kilometer, with annual mileage of 120,000 to 150,000 kilometers, each truck saves 100,000 to 200,000 yuan per year. For 20 trucks, that translates to millions in annual savings.

Shandong Port Logistics Group conducted more detailed calculations: pure electric heavy trucks cost 1.2 to 1.5 yuan per kilometer in electricity, while diesel trucks cost 2.8 to 3 yuan per kilometer in fuel. At 120,000 kilometers annually, pure electric trucks save at least 150,000 yuan per year in energy costs. Over their full lifecycle, a single new energy heavy truck can save about 500,000 yuan in operating costs compared to a diesel truck.

The numbers are compelling, and no company remains unmoved. Industry feedback indicates that previously, new energy heavy truck buyers were mainly large fleets from mines, steel mills, and ports, purchasing 30 to 50 units at a time. Now, over 50 of every 100 trucks sold are new energy, with most purchases coming from individual owners. Individual buyers focus on per-kilometer savings—a straightforward calculation.

However, individual and fleet decision-making logic differs. Individuals may impulsively buy based on savings, while fleets consider a broader range of factors. A 49-ton pure electric heavy truck costs 850,000 yuan upfront, compared to 400,000 yuan for a diesel equivalent—more than double. While subsidies help—up to 45,000 yuan for scrapping old trucks and 95,000 yuan for new energy purchases, totaling up to 140,000 yuan—the initial investment pressure remains significant.

More critically, new energy heavy trucks' economic viability heavily depends on operating mileage and energy replenishment infrastructure. The more they run, the more cost-effective they become. But if routes are irregular or charging facilities lag, advantages diminish.

Currently, new energy heavy trucks are mainly used in mines, industrial parks, ports, and short-haul transport within 300 kilometers. Long-haul trunk transport accounts for less than 1%. Linyi's case illustrates this: over 70,000 heavy trucks operate there, with 3,000+ routes covering the nation. Local charging facilities are deployed in high-frequency scenarios like logistics parks and steel/cement plants, with plans to build 260 charging/swapping stations by 2030. But this density is far from nationwide.

The economics work, but only if infrastructure supports them. Energy replenishment networks, service guarantees, and residual value expectations remain unresolved variables. Until these are addressed, economic calculations remain theoretical.

For New Entrants to Survive, They Must Find Their Ecological Niche

The core driver of new energy heavy truck demand growth is their total lifecycle cost advantage. Under current energy price structures, new energy heavy trucks cost 30% to 50% less per kilometer to operate than diesel trucks. For fleets exceeding 100,000 kilometers annually, this gap is significant.

However, cost advantages are universal, not a unique competitive edge.

Traditional automakers are investing heavily in electrification. CNHTC led the first half in new energy heavy truck sales. FAW Jiefang launched a coal transport solution, offering product matrices for short-haul, intercity, and cross-provincial transport, with coal scenario sales exceeding 7,000 units.

Traditional players are leveraging their fuel-era channels, services, and customer relationships, combined with electrification technologies—a combination new entrants struggle to match.

Nevertheless, new entrants are not idle. They are exploring overseas markets, financing, IPOs, and battery-swapping operations. DeepWay has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, while Zero One Auto is preparing for its own HKEX listing.

But after capital market funds are exhausted, what then? Building a national service network and spare parts inventory requires sustained long-term investment, which is difficult to cover through vehicle sales profits alone. New entrants rely heavily on financing for growth, and any capital tightening immediately restricts expansion.

United Heavy Truck's new energy sales surged 397% year-on-year in the first half, cracking the top ten. However, backed by Chery and CIMC, it is not a pure new entrant. This case highlights a problem: in the heavy truck industry, players without industrial foundations face far greater challenges in achieving breakthroughs through product alone than imagined.

New entrants' true competitors may not be individual traditional automakers but entire mature industrial ecosystems. Products can iterate quickly, but building a complete industrial ecosystem requires prolonged accumulation. Ports, steel mills, mines, and short-haul transport are core markets for new energy heavy trucks. Foresee Energy believes new entrants should not pursue full-scenario competition but instead leverage their technological advantages to create customized models for specific scenarios, build benchmark customer relationships, and expand point by point—a more realistic approach than broad market coverage.

The first half's 126,200-unit sales volume signals a shift: new energy heavy trucks have moved from "can they be used" to "how to use them well." This stage is no longer about who has the most advanced motor but who can reassure users that their trucks will operate reliably and complete every job safely. New entrants have technology and growth potential but lack time—time to transform products into trust and trust into an ecosystem.

With 22 billion yuan in subsidies, plans for 3,000 charging/swapping stations, and 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon highway transport corridors, policies are expanding the market. But when the pie grows, the winner may not be the fastest but the most stable.

For new entrants to survive in the heavy truck industry, they must first identify where to take root.